There’s some more data out now about the guv’s race over at the NYT’s FiveThirtyEight forecasts. If it’s to be believed, it’s encouraging…

It has Shumlin at 52.8% and Dubie at 46.3%. It puts Shumlin’s chance of winning at 79.6% and Dubie’s at 20.4%. I like those numbers.

The polling also doesn’t take into account secessionist candidate Dennis Steele, and his supporters’ contentions that he’ll get the majority of votes in the Northeast Kingdom, but I think it’s a safe bet we can write that one off, as realistic expectations don’t seem to be a trait shared by those folks. About anything.

The chart I would have liked to have seen, but probably won’t, is the correlation between Shumlin’s numbers going up every time Dubie has a debate opens his mouth. It’s as though Vermonters are suddenly learning that we have a mini-Bush running for governor or something. Barring any major screwups on Shumlin’s part or sudden truth-telling from Dubie, this is starting to look encouraging.  

Con Hogan may be many people's favorite (or second-favorite, after Bernie) straight-talking, no-bullshit career public servant in Vermont. This is a guy who started out as a corrections officer and ascended through intelligence and hard work to Commissioner of Corrections and Secretary of the Agency of Human Services. His credentials for fighting crime, knowing how government works, and knowing how to make government work are unassailable.  

According to today's Times Argus, here's what he says about Peter Shumlin's plan to reduce Vermont's rate of incarceration:  

MONTPELIER – Vermont's former top corrections official stepped into a heated political debate Friday, saying Democrat Peter Shumlin's prison plan is similar to proposals offered six years ago by a bipartisan commission created by GOP Gov. James Douglas.  

Con Hogan of Plainfield, who served as Vermont's corrections commissioner in the 1970s and secretary of human services throughout the 1990s, said Shumlin's plan to cut prison costs by releasing nonviolent offenders “can be done.”

“What Peter Shumlin is recommending is pretty much the same thing that we recommended in 2004,” Hogan said Friday. “If this is done right, and phased in over several years, it could work. This plan can be done.”

It’s good to hear someone who was basically a Republican all his life explain why Dubie’s attacks are baseless.

( – promoted by odum)

(A) “Nonviolent felony” means a felony offense which is not a listed

crime as defined in 13 V.S.A. § 5301(7) or an offense involving sexual

exploitation of children in violation of chapter 64 of Title 13.

(B) “Nonviolent misdemeanor” means a misdemeanor offense which

is not a listed crime as defined in 13 V.S.A. § 5301(7) or an offense involving

sexual exploitation of children in violation of chapter 64 of Title 13 or

13 V.S.A. § 1030.

(Act 157 as passed by the Vermont General Assembly.)

Date Signed by the Governor:  June 3, 2010

Effective Date:  Sec. 18 is effective on April 1, 2011. Secs. 17, 19, 20, 21, and 22 are effective on passage (June 3, 2010, the date on which the governor signed the bill). All other sections [including the part defining non-violent offenders] take effect on July 1, 2010.

(Act 157 summary as provided by Vermont legislature)

And what is this Title 13: Crimes and Criminal Procedure, Chapter 64: SEXUAL EXPLOITATION OF CHILDREN??

§ 2821 Definitions

§ 2822 Use of a child in a sexual performance

§ 2823 Consenting to a sexual performance

§ 2824 Promoting a recording of sexual conduct

§ 2825 Penalties

§ 2826 Evidence of age

§ 2827 Possession of child pornography

§ 2828 Luring a child

(Chapter 64: SEXUAL EXPLOITATION OF CHILDREN)

So let me repeat one more time … this time it is only for Brian Dubie and nobody else:

VERMONT LAW CONSIDERS CHILD PORNOGRAPHERS TO BE VIOLENT OFFENDERS!

Get it?

Discussions about the National Guard continue to be a sort of  “third rail” in Vermont politics, just as topics related to military service in general take on a peculiar hue when raised on the national stage. I don’t believe this is healthy, either for the democracy or for service members themselves; but it  is indicative of a sort of dysfunction in the American family. We all know that Grandma smells funny but we don’t discuss it because, after all, it IS Grandma; and then Grandma ups-and-dies from undetected gangrene.

I’m just saying, we’ve got to get over this odd squeamishness that has recently overtaken us with regard to all things service related.  In the coming decade, we’re looking at hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened men and women returning from the Middle East and being reabsorbed into our communities.  A large proportion of those returning warriors were barely more than children when they enlisted, and most of their social skills and world views have been shaped by the experiences of war.

I remember reading several years ago that it was estimated that one in three of those who serve in the Middle East wars will at some time in their lives suffer a mental disability due to combat experiences. One in three!  I had no idea whether that estimate had been revised up or down in the intervening years, until I found this link to a 2009 Stanford University study that pegs the number from Iraq alone to 35%! News sources have given us glimpses of a military culture infiltrated by religious zealots who take advantage of the captive consciousness that forms a command to proselytize and indoctrinate

What will this mean to the social order of America in the first half of the twenty-first century? These battle-weary soldiers will be returning to an economy that for some will be much worse than when they left it.  Jobs are scarce, public services are in a choke-hold throughout most of the states. The political conversation has descended from civil debate into unbridled warfare.

This will be the first generation of battle-hardened mothers raising their own children in the U.S. This will be the first generation of children with the potential of having two parents suffering from PTSD.  Are we really prepared in early education and healthcare for the challenges that this new reality (coupled with crushing economic issues) may have in store for us?  We’ve gotta talk about it, as uncomfortable as it may be to do so.

Which brings me back to my particular “third rail.” I have a nagging concern over the prospect of having the civilian commander of the Vermont  Guard (the governor) and the Adjutant General being brothers.  Consolidating command of our civilian militia in a single family has all kinds of potential for abuse and conflict of interest. I am really rather surprised that Michael Dubie has not voluntarily resigned and that no one has yet suggested that he should step down in recognition of this fact.  What are we, comatose?

Come on!  Let’s not allow our deep and abiding respect for the sacrifices of Guard members to overcome our instinct for vigilant scrutiny.  It’s time to have some tough conversations before we’re too deep in the soup to locate a paddle.

What’s a supposedly nice guy like Brian Dubie doing in a campaign like this? If not skirting the truth he is certainly dressing it up in falsehoods.

He is running around saying IBM told him they will leave Vermont due to higher power rates. However in the Free Press IBM spokesman Jeff Couture clearly denies that.

“I don’t think we’ve said anything about moving jobs specifically around the electricity goals,” Couture said. “There was nothing specific, or an ultimatum.”

Dubie’s recent radio ad  says that Peter Shumlin will “fire three hundred correctional officers … and release close to 800 nonviolent criminals from prison.” This latest fear-based effort comes a day after the Vermont Troopers Association endorsed Shumlin over Dubie.

Why wasn’t our man Dubie sounding the claxon of fear in 2009 when this was proposed:

“We need to continue to identify and implement new strategies that will protect our families and the safety of our communities by focusing on reintegrating property and drug offenders into the community and preserving prison beds for the most serious offenders,”

It is from a Douglas/Dubie administration plan which you might think the Lt. Gov would have passing familiarity with.

Will credibility be an issue if Dubie and his win-at-all-cost campaign team  keep blowing this horn?

He is running on empty if all he has to run on is fear.  

Before I post about last night's excellent talk by Jeffrey Carr at the Franklin County Chamber of Commerce mixer, I wanted to revisit Vermont Yankee and the economic report that Jeff and Thomas Kavet put together earlier this year.  The way I read it is that two of the presented scenarios are really good from the economic perspective, both in terms of employment and energy bills: the Green option and the Hybrid option.

The Green option assumes VY is shut down and:

Provides, on average, comparable employment levels relative to the VY Relicense scenario during the first decade of the analytic period and then rapidly outpaces the VY Relicense scenario over the final 17 years. Annual employment differentials relative to the VY Relicense case exceed 2,600 jobs by the end of the forecast horizon in 2040.

Retail power bills in the Green scenario are generally higher than most other scenarios in the initial 5+ years, but are substantially lower in the out years…[Through] 2023, beneficial power bill impacts will eventually result in more than 1,000 jobs per year by 2040.

The Hybrid assumes relicensing and aggressive investment in renewables:

Relicensing VY and adopting aggressive renewable energy policies yields the largest average positive employment and other economic impacts, with immediate job gains, no job losses and lower longer term power bills.

By the end of the forecast period in 2040, this scenario results in more than 2,600 jobs per year and nearly $400 million in Gross State Product per year (in 2012 dollars) than the VY Relicense case.

The best option for people concerned solely about safety and environmental impacts actually still is a net economic positive solution.  Given concerns about unemployment in the short term during our current slump, the Hybrid approach shows that we still need to invest in sustainable energy if we're to get the biggest bang for our buck.

From where I sit, the Green scenario is the first best, as it addresses job and cost concerns while also continuing with the planned decommission.  However, that might still be politically untenable.

The Hybrid scenario I think would qualify as a second best approach because it keeps VY open, contrary to the pro-shutdown folks, and requires money to be spent on renewables, which seems contrary to what most pro-nuke people like.  Does that, then, make this the most likely to work?

Is there a potential third best option?  I honestly don't know what all is entailed with recommission in terms of the NRC, economic models, etc, but is it possible to grant VY a shorter license?  Like 7-10 years?  I need to research that but just don't have time right now, so maybe somebody could help me out.

I'd be willing to consider that compromise.  While I still question the plant's safety, I'm not so sure it's an immediate danger (given any contamination has already hit the ground water, another 3 Mile Island or Chernobyl is unlikely), so maybe continued operation for an additional brief period could help us transition better to a post-Yankee, renewable regime without overly deleterious health risks.

I hope people can back away from their rhetoric and ideology a bit to consider non-binary solutions to a complex issue.

todd

(x-posted at Todd for Vermont House)

‘Outraged’ Sears critical of Dubie ads, Bennington Banner, 09/23/10.

Let me repeat that: “Vermont law considers child pornographers to be violent offenders, however.”

Once more – for emphasis and Dubie:

“Vermont law considers child pornographers to be violent offenders, however.”

This Saturday. Sept. 25, 1pm-8pm, the Vermont Workers’ Center will celebrate its 12th Anniversary at the Old Labor Hall (46 Granite St.) in Barre.  

The event will offer activists and the general public a chance to discuss and celebrate the hard work involved in organizing for civil rights and justice in the workplace and the community, with particular focus on the Center’s Healthcare Is A Human Right Campaign this past year.

Committee and Membership meetings will run from 1pm to 5pm, followed by the 12th Anniversary Celebration Dinner and Party from 5pm to 8pm, with live music by Africa Jamono, and a Silent Auction. And the Vermont Migrant Farmworker Solidarity Project will screen their short film: Silenced Voices.

The Celebration Dinner will also honor the work of Vermont’s union nurses and health professionals who helped out in Haiti early this year, the work of Fletcher Allen hospital techs who organized to join their union, and the work of thousands of childcare providers organizing to establish Vermont Early Educators United.

And yes, folks, there will be DANCING.  So come out to Barre Saturday and have some fun while getting things done.  (Corny rhyme, Peter)

Forget the rhyme, just come out!

And see the Vermont Workers’ Center site: http://www.workerscenter.org for the big One Nation March in Washington, DC on October 2nd.  Or call:  802-861-4892.

Peter Buknatski

Montpelier, Vt.

(NOTE: I am a member of this board)

As accepted by the Williamstow School District school board on 09/14/10

To: Armando Vilaseca

Commissioner, VT Dept. of Ed.

Regarding your proposed “Challenges for Change” 2012 school budget cuts of which the Williamstown School District has been directed to find $125,409: We, the Williamstown School District board of directors, decline to participate.

It is our findings that:

1) In setting the targeted reduction for the Williamstown School District, the commissioner of education failed to take into account “other unique circumstances that affect education spending” in direct violation of Act 146, Section E-2(c)(5).

2) State law Title 16, § 428 gives authority to “vote such sums of money as [the school district] deems necessary for the support of schools” only to the voters of said school district.

3) Local school boards have real control over a limited number of areas regarding school spending: transportation, educational enrichment programs such as the arts, extra-curricular programs such as theatre and sports and, to a much lesser degree, personnel.

4) State law demands a young adult or child under the age of 16 attend a state approved school or be home schooled in a manner meeting state mandated requirements.

5) It is impracticable or impossible to expect a large number of parents to home school their children due to personal capabilities or the economic need to have multiple wage earners in a single household resulting in no stay at home adult.

6) State law by way of the above mentioned statute leaves it up to the local community to determine how local needs can best be met regarding transportation to and from state mandated schooling.

7) Williamstown is a working community spread over a large area where, either due to economics or the need to commute to work, daily transportation of children to school by their parents or neighbors is difficult at best and often impossible.

8) In the budget for fiscal year 2010-2011, the Williamstown School District board of directors has reduced finances for and thus availability of school busing.

9) Educational enrichment programs are a fundamental and vital part of the physical, emotional and intellectual growth of many, many children and young adults including their ability to meet or exceed state mandated educational standards.

10) In the budget for fiscal year 2010-2011, the Williamstown School District board of directors has reduced finances for and thus programming availability of library, art, music and other educational enrichment programs.

11) Extra-curricular programs are a fundamental and vital part of the physical, emotional and intellectual growth of many, many children and young adults including their ability to meet or exceed state mandated educational standards.

12) In the budget for fiscal year 2010-2011, the Williamstown School District board of directors has reduced finances for and thus programming availability of pre-varsity level sports programs.

13) The statewide ratio of students to adults in Vermont’s public schools is approximately 4.5 to 1, but in the Williamstown School District this ratio is about 5.6 students to 1 adult.

14) It would be the height of irresponsibility to attempt to find over $100,000 in staff reductions as Williamstown is just now coming out of the state watch regarding failure to make adequate yearly progress on the NECAP standardized testing regime.

15) The Williamstown School District is currently dealing with approximately $565,000 in debt directly attributable to past deficits; and this is resulting in a $179,000 deficit driven debt payment during fiscal year 2010-2011, a minimum of $179,000 during fiscal 2011-2012, and additional amounts will be required in following years.

16) The Williamstown School District will be financially unable to meet its obligations to regular education and special needs children and adults as prescribed by law and/or regulation if the proposed cuts are enforced.

17) Reducing the Williamstown School District budget by $125,000 will result in irreparable harm to the children and young adults attending Williamstown’s schools, the Williamstown community as a whole and the public education system in general.

18) Title 16, § 428(2) States “[The school board of a school district, in addition to other duties and authority specifically assigned by law:] May take any action, which is required for the sound administration of the school district.”

19) Each member of the Williamstown School District board of directors signed an oath stating that we “solemnly swear to execute the office (duty or trust) of School Director to the best of [our] judgement and abilities, according to law.”   We would be violating that oath if we were to attempt to execute budget reductions of $125,000 for the fiscal budget year of 2011-2012.

There’s a phrase that jumped out at me while reading this morning’s Battleboro reformer:

Hikers on the new Woodlands Interpretive Trail will be able to enjoy a full sensory experience.

Okay.  

…Part of the Brattleboro Retreat’s network, the interpretive trail is now officially open. It is a moderate one-mile loop along the recreational trails and features 18 placards that point out interesting natural aspects of the trail for visitors, such as where lightning struck a tree and the site of granite that traveled to Brattleboro from Dummerston via a melting glacier.

Nice.

But unlike other hiking trails, the interpretive path offers a new audio recording that coincides with the walk.

Huh?

Oh.

That’s the “full sensory experience” referenced earlier in the piece.  Something you can listen to while out on a walk on a nature trail which keeps you from hearing nature.

Look, I’m all for nature trails, and I like those interpretive trails that tell you where some unusual plant grows or where a tree fell 300 years before or what uncommon bird nests in whatever bush you’re looking at.  These are good things, and they engage people.

I’ve got nothing against technology.  It has its place.  Just please… don’t try to peddle the idea that listening to your iPod, Zune or whatever else while walking a trail gets you more engaged with nature.  

But hey, if we’re going to call listening to pre-recorded audio on your iPod “a full sensory experience” why not just give everyone a 3d video to watch as well?  I mean, hey, that enhances the “sensory experience,” doesn’t it?  Maybe you could sit at home and have someone occasionally stick a stone in your shoe while you walk in place.  Get some mosquitoes in the mix, and you’ve done a full simulation of the outdoor experience.  

I think I might have a better idea for what might constitute a “full sensory experience:”

Go outside.  

Walk.  

Look.  

Listen.