There’s some more data out now about the guv’s race over at the NYT’s FiveThirtyEight forecasts. If it’s to be believed, it’s encouraging…
It has Shumlin at 52.8% and Dubie at 46.3%. It puts Shumlin’s chance of winning at 79.6% and Dubie’s at 20.4%. I like those numbers.
The polling also doesn’t take into account secessionist candidate Dennis Steele, and his supporters’ contentions that he’ll get the majority of votes in the Northeast Kingdom, but I think it’s a safe bet we can write that one off, as realistic expectations don’t seem to be a trait shared by those folks. About anything.
The chart I would have liked to have seen, but probably won’t, is the correlation between Shumlin’s numbers going up every time Dubie has a debate opens his mouth. It’s as though Vermonters are suddenly learning that we have a mini-Bush running for governor or something. Barring any major screwups on Shumlin’s part or sudden truth-telling from Dubie, this is starting to look encouraging.
Dubie seems so far to be routinely called-out on his distortions, like the sales tax red herring in the Freeps today. There is always that nagging fear that the people who don’t read beyond headlines will turn out in force to vote soley on the panic that Dubie’s distortions are designed to invoke. As he fails to shine in debate or on close examination, Dubie is ratcheting-up his efforts to cherry-pick wildly from Shumlin’s much more substantial public record. I worry constantly about the people I talk to on the phone, who insist they are going to vote but are completely undecided about the governor’s race at this point! These are the ones who are likely to seize on the final sound-bite they hear, no matter if it is a bald-faced lie.
…will just secede from Vermont. They can have Killington.
As an aside, I wonder who’s been talking out of school at SVR. Probably a CIA plant.
If you look at the NYT site, you see this prediction is based solely on the Rasmussen poll numbers. Given the unreliability of Rasmussen, how much weight should we realistic give this?
You could argue that since Rasmussen tends to lean right, it might understate the situation, but I have trouble getting too optimistic at this point.
Cautiously optimistic about sums it up for me, with an emphasis on cautiously.
One of GW’s big selling points in 2000 was that he was the down-to-earth Amurrican, the guy you wouldn’t mind having a beer with. Dubie doesn’t have that going for him, at all.
Indeed, what he offers is something like the policies and beliefs of GW Bush with the campaigning style of Bob Dole. A combination that results in the poll numbers cited above.
What’s to worry about is how unreliable these polls are and that so many still support Dubie. And the undecideds…how will they go? Still, it’s better than if it were the other way