Blast from the past: Shumlin vs. Nader

With Peter Shumlin coming out on top in the pre-recount universe, it seemed like a good time for a greatest hits moment that still draws regular comments on the internet. In this clip from two years ago, Ralph Nader goes after Bernie Sanders for his approach to health care reform, and Shumlin steps up in Bernie’s defense:

All-Star Congrats to Philip Baruth!

Democracy for America has announced it’s DFA All-Stars, and Philip Baruth of Vermont Daily Briefing has won. Philip is running for State Senate in Chittenden County. The DFA All-Stars are chosen by the members of Democracy for America, not its leadership – it’s the best kind of grassroots politics.

Jim Dean’s announcement explains exactly why Philip is such a great choice:

It’s not difficult to see why Philip won this hard-fought endorsement. Just look at how he describes the grassroots campaign he’s running:

When this race is over, I’d like to be able to say that I ran something more and better than a political campaign. Win or lose, I want to be able to point to projects we accomplished along the way — some small in scale, some not so small — projects that will continue to change life for the better in our cities and villages going forward.

Nice work, Phil! It’s a well-deserved win.

Head on over to http://baruth2010.com, and show him some love!

Schroedinger’s Candidate

Wow. When all is said and done, this is going to be an eye-popping 70,000 voter Democratic primary. Even my early, sometimes ridiculed guess of 60,000 was too low – and its a sign that there weren’t nearly the numbers of undecideds the campaign ID calls suggested.

And its not over yet. In fact, this thing could well get tighter. According to VPR, two of the towns that aren’t in yet are not small potatoes: St. Albans Town and St. Albans City, both of which Racine will probably outperform Shumlin in (via Norsehorse in the comments, vtdigger is reporting that the towns yet to come in are Alburg, Brighton, Brookfield, Burke, Cabot, Canaan, Dover, East Haven, Enosburg, Granville, Guildhall, Hancock, Lemington, Middlesex, New Haven, Newfane, Pawlet, Plymouth, Reading, Rochester, Shaftsbury, St. Albans City, St. Albans Town, Tunbridge, Wells, Westfield, Weston, Whiting and Williamstown – there are towns in there that lean both towards Shumlin and Racine, but it’s probably a good bet based on last night’s results that there’ll be an edge towards Racine overall).

Who knows? Perhaps Shumlin and Racine should both show up to the Thursday debate and alternate answering questions.

Recount?

As close as the election is, we can be pretty sure that  the margin will be within the range in which a losing candidate can request a recount.

 Here's what Vermont law says:

§ 2601. Recounts

If the difference between the number of votes cast for a winning candidate and the number of votes cast for a losing candidate is less than five percent of the total votes cast for all the candidates for an office, divided by the number of persons to be elected, that losing candidate shall have the right to have the votes for that office recounted.

 The procedure involves a filing in the Washington Superior Court, where all the ballots are transported and counted by hand.

The conventional wisdom is that a recount would be a disaster for us because “we learned from the Salmon recount in 2006 that a recount takes two weeks”.

I think the conventional wisdom is half right and half wrong.

I agree that it would be bad to have a recount. The people who do the recount are people who work in the party and who could, in the absence of a recount, be doing other campaign work. In addition, it does seriously deflate the lift that the winner should come out of the primary with.

I do not think it should take two weeks, though. In 2006 the recount was for a general election for Auditor of Accounts. There were just over 250,000 ballots recounted. This year it's a primary, and we're probably in the neighborhood of 65-70,000 votes, which should take approximately a third as much time as the Salmon recount consumed.

I don't have any inside information that you don't at this point, but keep in mind that the people you're hearing on the radio and TV also probably don't.

A sign of strength

As I sit here at 7:08 a.m., Wednesday morning, the race is still up in the air. With 89% of the votes counted, Shumlin has a tiny lead over Racine, with Markowitz hovering just behind.  

Now, unlike many of the front-pagers and regular commenters on GMD, I didn’t have a strong opinion in the race. I thought the Dems had an incredibly strong, deep field, with at least four candidates who could perform credibly in the general election. (My only negative thought: I wished that at least one of them had had the guts to run in 2008.) I made up my mind, literally, standing in the voting booth, staring at my ballot.

And no matter who wins, I feel good about the race.  

The five Dems ran strong campaigns. Three raised significant amounts of money. They didn’t trash each other — not enough to weaken the eventual winner, certainly. Judging by the very high turnout, they managed to engage the electorate in a significant way. At least four of the five candidates have pledged their support to the winner. And I fully expect all five to show up at the unity meeting, even if the result is still unknown.

I feared that a wide-open primary shootout would leave the Dems depleted and possibly divided. But while the candidates raised and spent quite a bit of money, I don’t think the well is dry — by any means. IMO, things are looking remarkably bright on this most amazing post-primary morning.  

Election Morning OPEN THREAD – Update x6: Shumlin +187 (TimesArgus)

ANOTHER FINAL UPDATE

From the Times Argus: http://www.timesargus.com/arti…

12:08 p.m. – With 260 of Vermont’s 260 precincts reporting, including 73,059 votes, Peter Shumlin won the Democratic gubernatorial primary on the strength of late-reported southern Vermont votes. His margin of victory is 178 votes, with all towns and cities reporting. Deb Markowitz finished 390 votes behind Shumlin. To request a recount, the margin for victory must be within 2 percent, which is true in this race.

Peter Shumlin – 18,244 votes (25.0%)

Doug Racine – 18,066 votes (24.7%)

Deb Markowitz – 17,854 votes (24.4%)

Matt Dunne – 15,100 votes (20.7%)

Susan Bartlett – 3,795 votes (5.2%)

(Associated Press, Rutland Herald and Times Argus figures)

POSSIBLY THE FINAL UPDATE:

Per the Times Argus:

10:51 a.m. – With 257 of Vermont’s 260 precincts reporting, including 72,870 votes, Peter Shumlin has pulled back into the lead on the strength of late-reported southern Vermont votes. He now leads by 187 votes, with three towns yet to be included in the count. Deb Markowitz has also moved closer, to within 410 votes of Shumlin. To request a recount, the margin for victory must be within 2 percent, which is true in this race.

Peter Shumlin – 18,201 votes (25.0%)

Doug Racine – 18,014 votes (24.7%)

Deb Markowitz – 17,791 votes (24.4%)

Matt Dunne – 15,081 votes (20.7%)

Susan Bartlett – 3,783 votes (5.2%)

The Times Argus is also reporting that the three outstanding towns are Cabot, Guildhall, and Lemington. We have a previous report that Guildhall nets out to + 9 for Shumlin.

GMD expects Peter Shumlin will end the Election Day tally with the most votes..

And one would do well to remember that a recount is a strong possibility.

———————————————-

UPDATE: As the diary below suggested, the St. Albans Messenger is now reporting results from the Franklin County towns that bring Shumlin’s lead down to a mere 11 votes.

UPDATE 2: …and again from the comments, Mark Johnson has reported that Franklin County has now put Racine up by 55.

UPDATE 3: Via the Times Argus:

Doug Racine – 17,411 votes (25%)

Peter Shumlin – 17,336 votes (25%)

Deb Markowitz – 16,929 votes (24%)

Matt Dunne – 14,448 votes (21%)

Susan Bartlett – 3,616 votes (5%)

The Argus/Herald reports that the towns still out are Cabot, Canaan, Dover, East Haven, Enosburg, Granville, Guildhall, Hancock, Lemington, New Haven, Newfane, Plymouth, Reading, Shaftsbury, Tunbridge, Wells, Westfield, Weston, Whiting, Williamstown.

UPDATE4: From the comments:

NPR:

Doug Racine 17,803 25%  

Peter Shumlin 17,724 25%  

Deb Markowitz 17,174 24%  

Matt Dunne 14,899 21%  

Susan Bartlett 3,714 5%  

96% / 249 of 260 precincts reporting

Update 5: per VPR:

Doug Racine   18,066  25%  

Peter Shumlin 17,998 25%

Deb Markowitz 17,243 24%

Matt Dunne 15,271 21%

Susan Bartlett 3,966 5%

98% / 256 of 260 precincts reporting

How’d you sleep?

The Big Sigh

I’m not normally inclined to write my own diary, but with about 75% of Dem Primary voters feeling the same way I feel now, I’m thinking someone needs to write this one.

Sigh…BIG SIGH…WTF…@#*$…sigh…small pathetic sigh…Big pathetic sigh???…Does anyone care about my feelings or am I just expected to fall in line???

I’ve heard there’s a “unity” event tomorrow. I can’t go because I need to take my mother to a doctor’s appointment in Bennington tomorrow, but even if I could go, would I want to? Am I in the mood for “unity” right now? I don’t think so…I’m sad, mad, depressed, defeated…

Am I unifiable (is that a word)? Yes, I think I am “unifiable”. But maybe next week I’ll feel more sincere about it, once I’ve had time to process MY candidate not being the one that everyone is unifying behind.

My point here is, please give people a little time to unify behind the Dem Primary winner…It may not come as easily to some as it comes to others.

Election night open thread with a few words from our candidates

First, a note from us to the candidates:

We at Green Mountain Daily would like to thank the candidates for engaging our readers and participating in our ongoing forum.  Your involvement has made for a greatly enriched experience and we’ve enjoyed seeing the back and forth among candidates, GMD writers, and our readers.  Thanks to all of you for making this an election to remember.

We will be updating this thread as time permits with any breaking news from the primaries:

This space reserved for election results, or you can get results as they come in at VPR or wcax.



Jim Condos is confirmed winner for Secretary of State Dem primary.

Doug Hoffer is confirmed winner for Auditor.

Governor is just too close to call.  See comment threads as reports come in.  I won’t be updating it here until we have a confirmed winner, which at this point might not be until morning September..

After the fold, where you can go to celebrate with your candidate of choice, and a special treat: we asked each of the five candidates for Governor to provide us with a short statement to the readers of Green Mountain Daily for this special end of the primary thread.  Below are the statements we’ve received, in order of when we received them (the Shumlin campaign did not send us a statement, but if they do, we will update this thread):

Next, where you can go to celebrate with your respective candidates:

Susan Bartlett: The Alchemist, 23 South Main St. Waterbury

Matt Dunne: Tip Top Cafe, 85 N. Main Street, White River Junction

Deb Markowitz: Main Street Landing Train Station, Burlington

Doug Racine: Burlington Hilton, 60 Battery Street, Burlington

Peter Shumlin: Nectars, 188 Main Street, Burlington

Also, Wednesday will be a Democratic Unity Event:


Wed, 08/25/2010 – 12:00pm

Train Station

One Main Street Landing

Burlington, VT, 05401

Susan Bartlett:

It has been an honor to campaign in this Democratic primary. I am impressed that five highly competitive candidates all ran campaigns that focused on the issues without resorting to negative campaigning. All of us understand that the primary voters must decide who best represents their interests and that ultimately one of us must be in a position to beat Brian Dubie. We will all pull together to elect the winner in November. Most of all, I enjoyed traveling the state listening to voters and understanding their concerns. I am so grateful for the support I found for my message of a pragmatic approach to solving the problems we face. 

Doug Racine:

Whatever happens tonight, I’m very proud of the campaign we have all run. We all had different strategies, but we all made a pledge not to be negative toward each other, and we all kept our pledge. I have very much enjoyed traveling the state and talking with Vermonters over the past year. I have also enjoyed engaging with Vermonters online through Green Mountain Daily, Facebook, Twitter and other media. I appreciate that GMD provides an online forum for folks to discuss issues that are important to them. Thank you to everyone who helped on my campaign. Let’s keep working together to beat Brian Dubie!

Matt Dunne:

It’s been an extraordinary campaign in a truly unique year. Each of the candidates have brought their own flavor to the election and after all the forums, parades and events we all know each other pretty well. The caliber of each of the candidates is phenomenal and I know that whoever wins the Democratic primary will be a worthy competitor to Brian Dubie.

Especially with so much information out there about each of the candidates, this year more than ever voters have turned to the experts to help digest the data. With this type of connected, netroots support, GMD has played an important role helping to highlight and analyze key elections news and we are indebted to the entire GMD community for sparking conversation and debate throughout the election season.

It’s been a long road and Vermont is now truly at a crossroads. It is critical that we all rally behind whoever is the Democratic candidate to ensure that we work together to move Vermont forward.

Deb Markowitz:

You have all heard the speeches. You’ve seen the ads. You’ve read the mail. You know that I am running for governor because we have to change the way we do business in Montpelier if we are going to keep Vermont the best place to live, work and raise a family–if we are going to jumpstart job growth, fix health care the right way and plan for a home grown renewable energy future. Over the last 18 months, I have had the honor to witness what is best about Vermont and what is best about Vermonters. And I can tell you what that has taught me about how this election and our future will play out. I want to thank Susan, Matt, Doug and Peter for their hard work and determination. My respect has only grown for you and I am thankful for the journey. Thank you also to Green Mountain Daily for continuing this lively experiment in democracy. It has been quite a campaign! Please join us at our party tonight at 7 p.m. at Burlington’s Union Station, 1 Main St.

Wherever you are, and whatever side you came down on, I hope this primary has energized and excited you.  Since I’m writing this before knowing who the winner is, I won’t bother writing a congratulations note just yet.  I’ll just say that this has been a lot of fun to watch and blog.

Feel free to share your favorite moments from the campaign, your expectations for the next few months, or anything else that’s on your mind.  

‘Cause tomorrow, it’s time to get down to serious work.

THE FIRST VERMONT PRESIDENTIAL STRAW POLL (for links to the candidates exploratory committees, refer to the diary on the right-hand column)!!! If the 2008 Vermont Democratic Presidential Primary were

View Results

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Who answered best?

Here’s a compilation of the ST/SW gubernatorial positions compiled in order.

Anyone care to opined on who gave the best answer?

Not necessarily the rightness of the answer but what they did with the question.

Anyone jonesing for election results?

Anyone know where to follow the results?

Anyone have a good link to the vote counting office (Deb’s job right?) ?

Here’s the last Shumlin clip uncut unbossed and unmuted, including the ST/SW answer (and inexplicably the scandalous outro got through) but he also has a fun time dissecting the Dougie/Dubie budget.

Anyone know a good copyright lawyer?

Anyone looking for an open thread?