I’ll be the first to concede that this diary was somewhat premature.  Be that as it may, even though there is a good chance that most of us are less than satisfied with the state of affairs this morning, the overarching mission has not changed a hair’s breadth. We still must remain focussed on defeating Brian Dubie, and even a possible recount shouldn’t shanghai the message.  True: if there is a recount, Dubie might get an automatic “gimme” on Thursday’s debate, since he will once again have an excuse to miss it; but the longer the confrontation is delayed, the greater the mind-muddling tension he will experience, as he waits, untried and untested. Meanwhile, freed of the necessity to compete amongst themselves, the candidates-in-waiting may turn their joint attention to a leisurely public review of Dubie’s years in lock-step with Douglas.

__________________________________________________________

At 7:00 this evening, all of the passion and commitment that we have invested as individuals in our chosen candidates must shift abruptly to focus into a single point of purpose:  to defeat Brian Dubie.  



After eight long years of slow erosion under Jim Douglas, Vermont has this chance to reclaim the ground we’ve ceded on human services, education and the environment; and we have renewed opportunity to plot a course toward shared prosperity, universal healthcare and truly clean energy.

What is my personal measure of the cost of those eight Douglas years?  That’s easy: the systematic degradation of environmental laws.  When Douglas took office, the word went out that Vermont’s regulatory system could now be breached.   Soon after all of his appointments were firmly in place,  Walmart renewed it’s siege on a parcel of Vermont farmland in my little corner of Franklin County. The global giant had  already tried and failed to ram a smaller project on the same land through the permit process; but with Douglas holding the reins of power, they boldly launched a new assault.  Over seven long years, we have endured a series of crippling disappointments as, one after the other, Douglas appointees have fallen-in-line, undermining both the intent and the letter of the law.  Meanwhile, Governor Douglas himself campaigned actively for the project, even to the point of inserting himself into the judicial process by appearing at a rally organized to pressure opponents into dropping their appeals.

So I know a little about the price we have paid for giving Jim Douglas the keys to the Statehouse. I pledge my support to defeat Brian Dubie; and brick-by-brick, stone-by-stone, we will tear down the house that Jim built.

(received via email)

In this update:

— Rural Vermont Events

— Volunteer Opportunities

— Other Upcoming Events & Announcements

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RURAL VERMONT EVENTS!

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Rural Vermont’s series of Free Enterprise Farming workshops kick off this week! Starting this Thursday, and running through the beginning of October, Rural Vermont will host several workshops intended to introduce folks to Rural Vermont’s newest campaign – Free Enterprise Farming – which seeks to create opportunities on the farm and in the marketplace. We believe that those growing, raising, and making farm products in small batches for direct sale to their communities should not have to meet the same regulatory requirements as their giant agri-business counterparts!

Both current and aspiring farmers are invited to come out and hear more about the Free Enterprise Farming campaign, while spending an afternoon learning, sharing, and getting to know a farm that is successfully incorporating either poultry or raw milk into their farm operations. Expect to tour the farm, learn about the farmer’s production, management, and marketing methods, and participate in a discussion about the regulations governing the sale of these products. Bring your questions, your experience, and your brown bag lunch! Each workshop costs $10 for Rural Vermont members, and $20 for all else. SPACE IS LIMITED – and preregistration is highly recommended. Reserve your spot today by calling Rural Vermont at (802) 223-7222 or emailing shelby@ruralvermont.org.

(more below the fold)

From Brooder to Plate: Pastured Poultry Opportunities

Thursday August 26, 11 am – 3 pm

Chandler Pond Farm, SOUTH WHEELOCK

Includes a slaughter demonstration – please wear work clothes.

From Cow to Customer: Producing Raw Milk for Direct Sale*

Sunday September 12, 11 am – 3 pm

Lathe Farm, CRAFTSBURY

Intended for folks interested in Tier 1 raw milk production (up to 50 quarts per day).  

From Cow to Customer: Expanding Raw Milk Production to Meet a Growing Demand

Monday September 13, 11 am – 3 pm

Family Cow Farmstand, HINESBURG

Intended for folks interested in Tier 2 raw milk production (up to 40 gallons per day and/or home deliveries).

From Cow to Customer: Producing Raw Milk for Direct Sale*

Saturday October 2, 11 am – 3 pm

Bunker Farm, EAST DUMMERSTON

Intended for folks interested in Tier 1 raw milk production (up to 50 quarts per day).

*same workshop being offered on two different dates at two different host farms

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** Beyond Milk! Raw Dairy Processing Classes

Learn how to make all kinds of delicious dairy goods in your own kitchen! With some simple instruction and good quality raw milk, it’s easy! Rural Vermont is partnering with some raw milk farmers to bring you both. Classes will cover dairy processing basics, and will include info about how and where to purchase local, raw milk.

Each class is $20 – 40 sliding scale. All proceeds benefit Rural Vermont. Pre-registration is required, and class size is limited. Get in touch TODAY to reserve your spot! To sign up, call Rural Vermont at (802) 223-7222 or email shelby@ruralvermont.org.

Feta, Ricotta, & Chevre with Sara Armstrong Donegan of Trillium Hill Farm

Friday, August 27th / 1 – 4 pm

United Church of Hinesburg, HINESBURG

Just a few spots left!

Mozzarella, Farmer’s Cheese, & Camembert with Lea Calderon-Guthe

Friday, September 17th / 1 – 4 pm

Milk provided by Tamarack Hollow Farm in Burlington

East Village Cohousing, BURLINGTON

Swiss Style Cheese (washed rind, semi-hard “raclette”) with Karen Bixler

Wednesday, September 22nd / 1 – 4 pm

Green Acres Milking Shorthorns, SOUTH RANDOLPH

* some previous soft cheesemaking experience recommended

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** 3rd Annual Tour de Farms – ADVANCE REGISTRATION NOW OPEN!

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Shoreham Green, SHOREHAM

Staggered starts: 30 mile at 10:30 am; 25 mile at 11 am; 10 mile at 11:30 am

Advance registration fees: $20 adults/$10 kids 12 & under

FIRM DEADLINE FOR ADVANCE REGISTRATION: MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 13TH. NO EXCEPTIONS!

Day-of registration fees: $30 adults/$15 kids 12 & under

All kids in trailers & bike seats ride FREE

RAIN OR SHINE!

Rural Vermont, Vermont Bicycle & Pedestrian Coalition, and Addison County Relocalization Network partner again for what’s becoming one of summer’s hottest events! Choose among three bicylce routes that wind through the beautiful Champlain Valley, and stop and sample Addison County’s freshest and finest foods at farm stops along the way. Fresh air, rural scenery, delicious food, good people = FUN!! New this year, expect special event tee shirts and a “to go” lunch available for purchase. The Tour de Farms is sponsored by Earl’s Cyclery and Sovernet Communications. Following the tour, the Platt Memorial Library will again be hosting the Shoreham Apple Fest on the green with lots of hot food options, farm & craft vendors, along with entertainment and merriment! Register online today or download your registration form & waiver at http://www.ruralvermont.org/td…

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SAVE THE DATE!

Rural Vermont will again partner with master storyteller Annie Hawkins for an enchanted evening of stories and merriment on Sunday, November 21st at the First Universalist Parish in Chester, Vermont. This event will be a fundraiser for Rural Vermont, and a great way to usher in the holiday season. Stay tuned for more details.

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VOLUNTEER OPPORTUNITIES

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***Do you want to spend a day amongst good food and lovely views,

enjoying early fall colors? Volunteers needed at the Tour de Farms in

southern Addison County on Sunday, September 19. Opportunities include

helping out at farm stops, collecting surveys from cyclists and general

event support. Volunteers will commit to at least 3 hours, and in

exchange receive a free t-shirt.

***We are looking for one person to help out at the Free Enterprise

Farming workshop in Hinesburg on September 13, and one person to help

out at the workshop in Dummerston on October 2. Want to help a farmer

and learn more about raw milk sales in Vermont? Please consider being

that one special volunteer to help during the workshop! You’ll be

helping to check people in and with any other random support needed

throughout the day.

***As always, we need people across the state to help spread the word

far and wide about our upcoming events by hanging up posters and

handing out flyers. Do you have a half hour to spare? Please hang up

posters in your libraries, town bulletin boards, and any other places

that seem appropriate!

For more info on these and other volunteer opportunities, please

contact liz@ruralvermont.org or call Liz at 223-7222.

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OTHER UPCOMING EVENTS & ANNOUNCEMENTS

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** RAFFL & NOFA host New Farmer Workshops Held on Local Farms this Summer

– Farm Equipment Primer: Safety and Types of Equipment for Small Farms, August 25th at the Larson Farm in WELLS ***New Farmer Mixer and Nofavore Celebration afterwards***

– Crop Planning: Succession Planting and Diversification Choices, September 8th at Cerridwen Farm on GMC, POULTNEY

– Organic Pest and Disease Management, September 22, Cerridwen Farm on GMC, POULTNEY

New farmers in the Rutland Region are invited to a series of training workshops at area farms this summer.  These workshops are geared towards beginning farmers that are still “learning the ropes” to succeeding in agriculture. The workshops cover a range of skills that often challenge new farmers. For more info, http://www.rutlandfarmandfood….

** Brookfield Market Day: Celebrating the Bounty of Brookfield Community

Saturday, August 28th, 2 pm

Old Town Hall, Pond Village, BROOKFIELD

The newly-formed Floating Bridge Food and Farms Cooperative will hold their first official event this coming weekend.Brookfield Market Day is a joint venture between the Cooperative and the Brookfield Old Town Hall. Check out the farmers’ market, art in the park, silent auction, book sale, and more. At 5 pm, there will be a chicken barbecue, followed by square dancing. For information about the Floating Bridge Food and Farms Cooperative, contact Judith Irving, Coop Board Chair, 802-276-0787 or visit the web site http://www.FloatingBridgeFooda… for more details.

** Apply to the Vermont Farm Viability Program by August 31st!

Farmers can apply to the Farm Viability Program through August 31 at http://www.vhcb.org/viability. The Farm Viability Program provides in-depth, one-on-one business planning and technical assistance to farmers. Farmers regularly use the program to help improve business management, planning for expansion or diversification, changing markets or developing new products, starting value-added processing on the farm, or preparing for ownership transition. The program also provides competitive grants and technical assistance to help farmers implement their business plans. Farmers must be full time VT residents, be actively farming and demonstrate at least $10,000 gross income last year to be eligible.

** Growing Local Fest

September 11, 2- 7 pm

Vermont College of Fine Arts Green, MONTPELIER

$10 person, $20 family, $5 students & seniors

2nd annual event celebrates local food, local music, and local fun! Live music by Vorcza, the Dave Keller Band, and Starline Rhythm Boys, with youth farmers’ market, beer tent, food & gardening workshops, pesto contest, home-brew contest, local food vendors, and more. Be sure to stop by and visit the Rural Vermont booth! For more info, visit www.cvfsc.wordpress.com.

** Tunbridge World’s Fair

Thursday-Sunday, September 16-18, 2010

Tunbridge Fairgrounds, TUNBRIDGE, VT

Visit Rural Vermont’s booth at this old-fashioned agricultural fair in a rural setting; featuring working antique displays; horse, pony and oxen pulling; horse racing; cattle and horse shows; junior 4-H exhibits; contra dancing; gymkhana; and free shows. More info at http://www.tunbridgefair.com/.

** 4th Annual Northeast Animal Power Field Days

Friday-Sunday, October 15-17, 2010

Tunbridge Fairgrounds, TUNBRIDGE, VT

Dedicated to working draft animal enterprises supporting local communities and a land-based economy, this two-day trade fair and conference will feature workshops, equipment demonstrations, working demos, exhibitors, local food, swap meet, and more. ?Friday, October 15th will feature field and forest working demos at Howevale Farm, adjacent to the Tunridge Fairgrounds. Friday evening will include a community potluck dinner on the Tunbridge Fairgrounds. ?Saturday, October 16th will focus on workshops and equipment presentations, resource exhibitors, local food vendors, and networking sessions, throughout the Fairgrounds. ?Sunday, October 17th will start off with a Community/Teamster Appreciation Breakfast, then will offer a variety of activities including the premier annual meeting of the newly formed Draft Animal Power Network.Visit Rural Vermont’s booth at the Field Days! For more info, check out: http://www.animalpowerfieldday… or join our Discussion Forum: http://www.draftanimalpower.com.  For more info: 802-234-5524,or  info@animalpowerfielddays.org.

~Remember to visit the Rural Vermont website often for the latest agriculture news, to buy your NOTECARDS, get more information on issues, and to become a member of Rural Vermont! http://www.ruralvermont.org

Check out our Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/ruralv…

President Striking a Delicate Political Balancing Act, Reassuring Military Commanders That His 2011 Deadline for U.S.  Troop Pullout From Iraq ‘Isn’t Set in Stone’ While Seeking to Assuage the Democratic Party’s Anti-War Hardliners

As the last U.S. combat brigade in Iraq prepared to leave the country and cross the border into neighboring Kuwait early Monday — seven years after the U.S.-led invasion to topple dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime and 20 years after Saddam sent his army to invade Kuwait — some 50,000 American troops are to remain Iraq until the end of 2011 to advise Iraqi forces and protect American interests. But there is some doubt that President Obama will keep his self-imposed deadline and American forces could remain in Iraq indefinitely. (Photo: Reuters)

(Posted 5:00 a.m. PDT Tuesday, August 24, 2010)

By GARETH PORTER

Inter-Press Service

(Published under a Creative Commons license)

When the Obama administration unveiled its plan last week for an improvised State Department-controlled army of contractors to replace all U.S. combat troops in Iraq by the end of 2011, critics associated with the U.S. command attacked the transition plan, insisting that the United States must continue to assume that U.S. combat forces should and can remain in Iraq indefinitely.

But the differences between the administration and its critics over the issue of a long-term U.S. presence may be more apparent than real.  

All indications are that the administration expects to renegotiate the security agreement with the Iraqi government to allow a post-2011 combat presence of up to 10,000 troops, once a new government is formed in Baghdad.

OBAMA WALKING A POLITICAL TIGHTROPE AS MIDTERM ELECTIONS LOOM  

But Obama, fearing a backlash from anti-war voters in the Democratic Party, who have already become disenchanted with him over Afghanistan, is trying to play down that possibility. Instead, the White House is trying to reassure its anti-war base that the U.S. military role in Iraq is coming to an end.  

An unnamed administration official who favors a longer-term presence in Iraq suggested to The New York Times last week that the administration’s refusal to openly refer to plans for such a U.S. combat force in Iraq beyond 2011 hinges on its concern about the coming midterm congressional elections and wariness about the continuing Iraqi negotiations on a new government.  

Vice President Joe Biden said in an address prepared for delivery Monday that it would take a “complete failure” of Iraqi security forces to prompt the United States to resume combat.

Obama referred to what he called “a transitional force” in his speech on August 2 — ironically, the 20th anniversary of Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait — pledging that it would remain “until we remove all our troops from Iraq by the end of the next year.”  

He also declared an end to the U.S. “combat mission” in Iraq as of August 31. But an official acknowledged that combat would continue and would not necessarily be confined to defending against attacks on U.S. personnel.

THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS: TRANSITION PLAN STILL BEING WORKED OUT  

The administration decided on the transition from military to civilian responsibility for security at an inter-agency meeting the week of July 19. It made the broad outlines of the plan public at an August 16 State Department news briefing and another briefing the following day, even though crucial details had not been worked out.  

Colin Kahl, the deputy assistant defense secretary of for Middle Eastern affairs and Michael Corbin, Kahl’s counterpart at the State Department, presented the  administration’s plan for what they called a “transition from a military to civilian relationship” with Iraq.

PRIVATE SECURITY CONTRACTORS TO TAKE OVER FROM U.S. TROOPS  

The plan involves replacing the official U.S. military presence in Iraq with a much smaller State Department-run force of private security contractors. Press reports have indicated that the force will number several thousand, and that it is seeking 29 helicopters; 60 personnel carriers that are resistant to improvised explosive devices; and a fleet of 1,320 armored vehicles.  

The contractor force would also operate radars so it can call in airstrikes and fly reconnaissance drones, according to an August 21 report in The New York Times.  

Kahl argued that the transition is justified by security trends in Iraq. He said al-Qaida is “weaker than it’s ever been,” that the anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army has been “largely disbanded” and that there is no strategic threat to the Iraqi government.

CRITICS NOT CONVINCED IRAQIS READY TO TAKE CHARGE OF THEIR OWN SECURITY  

That provoked predictable criticism from those whose careers have become linked to the fate of the U.S. military in Iraq and who continue to view the United States as having enormous power to decide the fate of the country.  

Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a frequent visitor to Iraq at the invitation of General David Petraeus, former commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and General Ray Odierno, Petraeus’ successor, dismissed the idea of giving the former U.S. military role in Iraq to the State Department and Kahl’s assessment of security trends as far too optimistic.  

Some officials were talking “as if we’re on the five-yard line,” Pollack told the Christian Science Monitor. “We’re on more like the 40 — and it’s probably our 40.”

Pollack argued that the U.S. has great influence in Iraq, which it must use for “persuading” Iraqi leaders to do various things. If the U.S. troop presence ends in 2011, he argued, that U.S. power would suffer.

CONCERN OVER IRAQ’S STILL-UNRESOLVED POLITICAL CRISIS

Other variants of that argument were offered by Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations and Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, both of whom have been frequent guests of the U.S. command in Iraq and have generally hewed to the military view of Iraq policy.

Ryan Crocker, the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, who shared the media spotlight and adulation of Congress with Petraeus from 2007 to 2009 before retiring from the Foreign Service, opined that the military needs to keep enough presence in Iraq to  encourage Iraq’s generals to stay out of politics.  

The real position of the administration over the issue is not much different from that of its critics, however. In answer to a question after a briefing August 17, Kahl said, “We’re not going to abandon them. We’re in this for the long term.”  

Then Kahl observed, “Iraq is not going to need tens of thousands of [American] forces.” That is consistent with the figure of 5,000 to 10,000 being called for by the military, according to the administration official quoted by The New York Times on August 18.

‘WE HAVE TO SEE WHAT BAGHDAD DOES NEXT’

At another point, Kahl said, “We’ll just have to see what the Iraqi government will do,” adding that the “vast majority of political actors in Iraq want a long-term  partnership with the United States.”

It is been generally assumed among U.S. officers and diplomats and the Iraqi officials with whom they talk that once a new Iraqi government is agreed on, it will begin talks on a longer-term U.S. troop presence, as former National Security Council official Brett H. McGurk told the Times last month.

At a Pentagon press conference in February, General Odierno referred to the purchase by the Iraqi government of “significant amounts of military materiel from the United States,” including M1A1 tanks and helicopters.  

Odierno said he expected it would require a “small contingent” of U.S. personnel to “train and advise” the Iraqis. That formula implicitly anticipated a continuation of the U.S. combat presence in the guise of “advisory and assistance” units.

COMMANDERS TOLD: DON’T STRAY FROM WHITE HOUSE MESSAGE

But the administration apparently made it clear to Odierno and to others that they were not to contradict the administration’s public posture that U.S. troops were being withdrawn by the end of 2011.  

During the interagency meeting that adopted the administration’s transition plan, Odierno told reporters at a breakfast meeting July 21 he expected U.S. troops in Iraq to be down to zero by the end of 2011.  

Meanwhile, the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not admitting  publicly that it would consider such an extension of the  U.S. troop presence. The spokesman for al-Maliki said on August 12 there are alternatives to keeping U.S. troops in the country, such as signing “non-aggression and non-interference pacts” with its neighbors.

# # #

Special Report Copyright 2010, Inter-Press Service. Republished under a Creative Commons License.

The ‘Skeeter Bites Report Copyright 2010, Skeeter Sanders. all rights reserved.

Having trouble deciding who to vote for in the Democratic Primary? Hey, do what I do – look at it through a comic book lens.

We did it before, let’s do it again… below the fold for which super-heroes the Democratic candidates for governor would be.

Deb Markowitz: Wonder Woman (Diana Prince)

She’s decked out in emblematic colors. She’s one of the “big three” iconic powerhouses in the DC universe. On the other hand, people aren’t exactly sure who she is and what she can do the way they know the other two of the big three (Batman and Superman). She’s strong, OK… and she has a magic rope, yeah? Does she fly? Wait – no she doesn’t. What’s her secret identity again? Lynda something?

People are vague on her, but there’s no question she’s a powerhouse.

Matt Dunne: Iron Man (Tony Stark)

He’s an innovator. A “futurist” (whatever that means). He’s built his own suit of powered armor, fashioned with increasingly sophisticated upgrades over the years, making him a real power player. And rather than have one specific power built into that suit, he has a broad variety of skills and tools at his disposal.

It’s hard to predict how he’ll do in a given situation, because he seems to have a lot of tricks up his sleeve, and he’s always improving himself in unexpected ways, but may have trouble always seeing outside his own world to identify the real threats.

Peter Shumlin: Captain Marvel (Billy Batson)

Billy Batson may have just seemed like a guy who probably didn’t have a lot to bring to the super-hero table, but with one magic word (Shazam!), lightning strikes, and he’s all of a sudden transformed into – not simply a major player – but the “world’s mightiest mortal!”… but will the lightning be there when he needs it most?

Doug Racine: Spider-Man (Peter Parker)

In his civilian identity, Spider-Man is just a regular, well-liked, kinda nerdy guy. A lot of things go wrong for him too. He swings into situations with a great attitude and a smile, but often finds himself unexpectedly facing opponents who seem to have a lot more power than he does (like the Juggernaut). Still, he perseveres and gets by on his determination – often with a little help from his friends (see Marvel Team-Up issues)

Susan Bartlett: Black Canary (Dinah Lance)

She’s not the household name that the others in the Legion are, nor does she come with the same level of super power, but she’s been a core member of the Justice League of America forever, has a broad range of skills and fighting talents, and can make a lot of noise when she wants to with her sonic scream.

How about a game? Be the GMD user who guesses the Democratic gubernatorial primary percentage spread closest to the final result, and you’ll win your choice of a GMD beer stein or coffee mug from cafepress! To enter, simply put your comment in this thread containing your projected spread (e.g. “Candidate A = 24%, Candidate B = 23%, Candidate C = 18%… etc”).

You should also include your answer to the tiebreaker question (should it be necessary to break a tie): what will the primary turnout be?

Have your comment in the thread timestamped before the close of the polls today to be eligible – and everybody and anybody can enter (even GMD front pagers!)

Have fun and don’t forget to vote!

We now know that at least one of our candidates knows how to use Google Ads (screen shot of my weather forecast below the fold, so as not to be mistaken for an ad for Matt Dunne).

I’m actually curious as to how this is going to pan out, because this is the first Vermont governor’s race where I’ve seen a serious and concerted web presence on the part of multiple candidates.  I’ve joined the Facebook groups of three candidates and I get multiple updates from them.  I’ve also managed to get lots of e-mails from many campaigns, even ones I didn’t sign up for (I’m not sure how that happened, but since I found the updates interesting I never asked them to remove me).  

But as far as web ads go, I’d like to solicit some opinions: have you ever been influenced by a web ad (either for or against?).  Do you block ads entirely?  Do you find them annoying?  

I’ve got mixed feelings about this.  I have ads on my own personal web sites because, quite frankly, I’m hoping to make at least enough money to pay the hosting fees.  I don’t do the google ads thing– I have very specific things I’m advertising that I want advertised and little else (i.e., the music ads link to places where people can purchase my music, the photography site ads link to books about birding and camera equipment), and I try to avoid anything with lots of flashy activity, but there are reasons people make ads flashy: they’re meant to get attention, and really, candidates do need to advertise.  

I’d especially like to hear from the Dunne campaign about this (it can wait until after the primary is over 🙂 ).  Once the primary is all said and done, do you think the Google ads were worth it?  If you’re the nominee, will you continue to use them?  If you’re not, do you recommend that the nominee use them as extensively as you have?

As far as Facebook goes, and this question is for all the campaigns: have you found the Facebook tools a good way to outreach?  One thing I’ve noticed that’s really interesting is the discussion going on between people still trying to decide.  I’ve posted on the walls of several candidates wishing them luck, while explaining that I’m still undecided, and I’ve had mostly cordial and respectful responses advocating for the candidate.  I did have one particularly annoying and unpleasant response from one candidate’s support (I’m chalking that up to heat of the moment frustration from someone who might have issues with interpersonal communication), but almost everyone I know has given me very polite and respectful suggestions and thoughts on why their candidate is the best, and most of this happened on Facebook.

Has this been everyone else’s experience as well?

What about our exchanges here on Green Mountain Daily?  Have you found it to be helpful?  Useful?  What about our live blogging of the early education forums?

So just to finish off:  I look up my weather forecast, and I get this:

I’m going to start calling this “the Full Dunne.”

Tomorrow is the big day, and the small handful of political reporters (along with the pair of go-to academicians – with no disrespect intended to recent GMD discussion participant Eric Davis…) are covering the print and TV media with their analyses. Unfortunately, more often than naught, the same conversations among the same few people within the same Montpelier-Burlington bubble makes for a narrow conventional wisdom which, while true in many cases, also creates oversimplifications (sometimes self-serving ones) that can range from simply simplistic to outright inaccurate.

The biggest point about tomorrow is one the experts do have right: anything could happen. All the prognostication and analysis you can conjure is vulnerable to the simple reality of a tiny, tiny turnout (even if it’s a record primary turnout in Vermont) – and a tiny turnout makes trends softer, data unavailable, and firm predictions impossible. With campaign ID phoning suggesting as many as 30% of potential primary voters still undecided, turnout could end up quite a bit lower than the astronomical projections people like me were predicting early on.

But there are six bits of conventional wisdom in circulation that probably necessitate some addressing. They are:

1. The primary has been bad for Democrats.

2. The primary shows that Democrats are in bad shape.

3. Low turnout helps Racine, Markowitz, high turnout helps Shumlin, Dunne.

4. There is no difference between the candidates on the issues.

5. The general election has always been Dubie’s to lose.

6. The national Democrats will (somewhat) equalize things after the primary.

A closer look at these assumptions below the fold…

1. The primary has been bad for Democrats.

Simplistic at best. The primary makes it all more complicated, this is a fact. Those complications have positive and negative effects. Which has more impact depends on the campaigns themselves, as well as the history.

There are good and bad effects of the primary. In the short term, the bad is obviously that the Dems are tearing through money while Dubie isn’t (on the other hand, there’s a lot more money already in the election then there otherwise would be – and few on that list have maxed out. As long as the losing candidates support the winner, that gap could close quickly). You could also argue that the bad is that Dubie is getting that “free pass” and is not getting attacked.

That last one I don’t buy at all. Why? Because of the biggest good of the primary – the increased excitement and media attention. In recent years, the unchallenged Dem nominee hasn’t been able to get any meaningful coverage from the Vermont media until scant weeks before the General Election. Effectively, that meant that the Republican (Douglas) was – that’s right – getting a “free pass.” I’d be willing to bet that more criticism of Dubie is getting covered and penetrating into voters’ minds through this primary as compared to previous cycles.

And that excitement matters. Name recognition for the winner will be significantly magnified, and name recognition has been the biggest factor working against Democrats. Add to that the fact than a primary forces issues to the forefront, and that process has largely united the Vermont left, Dem and Prog, heightening enthusiasm – not to mention building fundraising and GOTV lists.

2. The primary shows that Democrats are in bad shape.

This is a Garrison Nelson bit that has been picked up in recent days. The argument goes that a healthy party is a command-and-control institution, because that is more “organized” – and if healthy equals organized, than a healthy party would be one where somebody like Patrick Leahy swooped in and informed the candidates who was running for what and avoided the dirty primary. This is simplistic thinking at its clearest, because the history of the last two decades shows the precise opposite. Both locally and nationally, the party bigwigs swooping in and deciding the candidates behind closed doors has led to a steady string of electoral failures as the Democratic brand has been watered down to nothing. At every level, it is with the decentralization of party control – the “devolution” if you will of power through grassroots and netroots networks and the plethora of primaries in its wake – that Democrats electoral fortunes have turned around. This line of Nelson’s is simply an ahistorical, lazy repetition of extremely tired conventional wisdom.

All around the country, we are seeing that -in terms of general trends (if not in every single instance) diversity is indeed strength.

3. Low turnout helps Racine, Markowitz, high turnout helps Shumlin, Dunne.

The logic here is that Shumlin and Dunne are bringing in new voters, because Dunne works outside the usual circles, and Shumlin has been surging in poularity.

Eh. There’s certainly truth to that thesis, but it really depends on a lot of things, one of which is where we’re talking about. For example, Washington County Democrats have an actively contested Senate primary – and one of the candidates is Anthony Pollina. Washington County is also a hotbed of Democratic primary voters, and will therfore have an impact on the primary greater than its impact on General Elections.

An increase in turnout in Washington will largely come from Progressive supporters of Anthony Pollina picking up a Dem ballot. Who will these voters break for in the gubernatorial? Largely Doug Racine, who is well liked by Progressives. Yes, Peter Shumlin has also made inroads with Progressives due to his promotion of single-payer health care, and the high profile backing of Progressives such as Addison County’s Ellen Oxfeld, but the mistrust among Progs of Shumlin still runs deep. This largely goes back to the 2002 Lietenant Governor’s race, where Shumlin ran against Pollina, coupled with the history of Pollina’s supporters (both Prog and Dem) history of personalizing challenges against him from Democrats such as Shumlin. In other words, the very fact that Shumlin did not drop out in that race many years ago has permanently damaged him in the eyes of many Progs.

So increased turnout in Washington County probably helps Racine, as well as Markowitz, since Montpelier is her home and will drive much of that increased turnout.

Chittenden County is even more complicated. Racine is immensely popular in greater Chittenden County. To say categorically that he is hurt by greater turnout from his geographic base is goofy. On the other hand, there is the media narrative that he has stumbled, so larger turnout of undecideds will have a tendency to break along that narrative and work against him.

The result? A slightly elevated turnout likely helps Racine, while a highly elevated turnout could indeed hurt as observers like Shay Totten and Eric Davis have suggested.

And then there’s the wild card in this race – Windham County. Windham County is the most reliably liberal county in the state (it was the only county that went for Peter Clavelle against Jim Douglas). It also has a very strong Prog contingent, and is – in fact – evolving into the new hub of the Progressive Party as the Prog’s influence is Burlington has been declining. And with a contested Senate primary, turnout will be up.

Good for Racine, again? Maybe – but (anecdotally at least), Shumlin seems to own Windham County, so an increased turnout could put him over the top. On the other hand, a strong first place showing in Chittenden with an accompanying second place showing could win it for Racine. All of which is to say that Racine’s and Shumlin’s are not direct reciprocals, as this conventional logic suggests.

But there’s also the question of who is voting. While an enormous amount of voters seem to be undecided – listening to the campaigns regarding their ID calls, it’s likely a good 30% of the potential voters – it does seem that undecided women are trending towards Markowitz, and that’s a trend that encompasses all areas.

The candidate’s field operations do tend to support this conventional wisdom, though. Racine has IDed more supporters than the other campaigns from all reports – in some cases significantly so. Markowitz has put the most professional boots-on-the-ground resources into field. Shumlin has blanketed the state with paid vendor IDs which have annoyed some folks and led to some funny situations (at least one rival candidate, as well as a family member of another, have been called by Shumlin ID callers), so his IDs are likely to be plentiful, but less solid.

And Dunne? He’s been working the field for so long, it’s hard to know – and again, it’s in this context where he becomes the “wild card” so many observers have tagged him as. While his support is somewhat mercurial, conventional-wisdom-practitioners have consistently underestimated him (against John Tracy in 2006, in fundraising two months ago), those Montpelier-Burlington-bubble denizens are finally waking up to the fact of that consistent underestimation and are hedging their bets.

Bottom line? This low-turnout-helps-Racine/Markowitz-hurts-Dunne/Shumlin is way too easy.

4. There is no difference between the candidates on the issues.

Of course there is. Anybody who’s spent any time on this site knows that. Primary voters know that, or we’d all be undecided among all five candidates.

This line is essentially a repetition of the “West Wing” notion that the only issues distinguishing Democrats are environmentalism and gay rights (read: Vermont Yankee and marriage equality). Racine is open to rejiggering the tax structure to make it more progressive, Shumlin and Bartlett aren’t. Shumlin advocates for single-payer healthcare, Racine would consider it, Markowitz probably won’t. Dunne would make campaign finance transparency a priority, the others aren’t so interested. Bartlett supports the 2-vote school budget process (albeit somewhat disparagingly), the others don’t (although it’s a bit unclear with Markowitz). The list goes on.

This, again, has become a lazy mantra among the “experts.”

5. The general election has always been Dubie’s to lose.

Ppplt. This is both the most frustrating bit of “conventional wisdom” and the most dangerous, as it’s held among the Vermont media (and clearly not shared by their counterparts in the national media). Dangerous because the media professionals who adhere to it become invested in it, and then perpetuate it in subtle ways through what they choose to report and how they choose to report it.

And its nonsense. The national media has this exactly right – and it has been so for better than the last year. Polls have consistently showed multiple Democrats within the margin of error – and one Democrat in the lead at times. And that’s been early in the process, when Dubie is clearly in a stronger position from name recognition. This is the only actual data we have to work from, as opposed to experts letting their conversations with other Montpelier-Burlington-Bubble experts guide them. Sure the Republican has more money – but since when is this a new situation? Even a cursory reading of Brian Dubie’s campaign finance report reveals the same kind of wild, unfocused and unrestrained spending that characterized the Jim Douglas campaigns… a weakness that remains ripe for exploitation by a smart, efficient Democratic campaign.

And the fact that the polls we do have are unreliable (WCAX’s Research 2000 polls are now in question, after R2Ks professionalism has been assailed by Daily Kos, and Rasmussen has a well-documented history of oversampling Republican supporters) simply makes this conventional wisdom that much sketchier.

Turnout patterns. Voter enthusiasm. Political trends. Those are more telling. And all those point to a nailbiter.

6. The national Democrats will largely equalize things after the primary.

Don’t count on it. This race was targeted early on by the Democratic Governor’s Association, but while that organization (which has undergone a recent leadership change) has blown away fundraising expectations recently, its a bit of a mess. Targeting means little when its resources and priorities seem to be at the whim of more powerful Washington interests that have never cared about Vermont.

An example? Insiders were urging the DGA to make their presence known in a small, inexpensive way at the beginning of the year, when some Republicans – concerned about settling for Dubie as their standard-bearer – were trolling for a primary challenge. A simple online viral video designed to maximize those concerns could have initiated a GOP primary, largely nullifying the Democratic primary negatives indicated above.

The DGA wouldn’t give such ideas the time of day, partly due to disorganization, and partly because they really don’t give two craps about Vermont.

And the national new media/blogosphere? Forget it. Again, Vermont is like some quaint little foreign country to the national netroots leaders. Encouraging them to get involved just seems to annoy them.

No – if the winning campaign tomorrow is counting on being bailed out by the national Dems, they are already ceding the contest. If we’re going to win this, we have to do it ourselves.

For most of the weekend, Matt Dunne led the unscientific polling. Late surges followed from Shumlin and Racine supporters squeezing Racine into the lead. But in the last hour of the voting, Markowitz supporters mobilized and vaulted the distant fourth place candidate well out in front.

Here are the results:

Thanks for voting. What do you think? Does this “little poll” mean anything? Online polls are notoriously sketchy on the one hand, but on the other hand, this is little Vermont, and if the primary turns out 50,000 voters, these 724 respondents represent nearly 1.5% of voters!

(promoted for the usual reasons – promoted by JDRyan)

Donny Osman has posted some strong work here at GMD recently and also attended the GMD/VDB Hamburger Summit earlier this summer. He is running for Washington County State Senator, so if you live there, look for him on the ballot. We began by talking about the Hamburger Summit, and the experience of running for office. Two things are immediately clear in this clip: he enjoys participating in the blogosphere and is a great storyteller. His recounting of the experience of phoning 3000 voters here is indicative of his ability to communicate and his sense of humor.

Then we moved on to some of the substance in his GMD diaries. Many Children Left Behind is a great argument for universal Pre-K. In Are you a tax-and-spend liberal?, Donny takes on the common stereotype of the liberal throwing money at problems.  The combination of compassion, knowledge of the issues and an ability to challenge prevailing assumptions are all evident in this discussion.

Donny is a former State Rep who has served on a number of boards, including Washington County Mental Health, Central Vermont Community Partnership, Head Start Policy Council as well as the boards of Vermont State Colleges, the Vermont Arts Council, Twin Valley Seniors, and the People’s Health and Wellness Clinic. This background gives him both the depth and breadth to understand the issues facing Vermonters.

Donny Osman’s campaign website