Election Predictions-The Eric Davis Challenge

OK Folks… These are my predictions.  Disagree?  Well list yours below and I will bet one double whiskey per race… Closest one wins! And Eric Davis, if you are reading this, I would be happy to bet it all… Lay your predictions down against mine, and the winner takes your postion as talking head in 2014!

Gov-

*Shumlin 61%

Brock 35.9%

Nut Job Pot Woman- 1.2% (she comes in third just because the word “marijuana” is in her party line)

Emily Peyton- 0.9%

Annette Smith- 0.6%  (her anti wind message takes a hit)

Dave Eagle- 0.4%

Lt Gov-

*Scott- 55%

Gekas- 43.5%

Mitchel- 1.5%

Treas-

*Pearce- 53%

Wilton- 43.6%

Don Schramm- 3.2%

Diamondstone- 0.2%

Sec of State-

*Condos- 94.8%

Mary Herbert- 5.2% (Liberty Union becomes “Major Party” again)

Auditor-

*Vince- 51.1%

Hoffer- 47.7%

Levy- 1.2%

AG-

*Sorrell- 57.2%

McMullen- 28.3%

Stanak- 14.2%

Jackowski- 0.3%

###

St. Lenore, First Amendment Martyr, Suffers Brutal Paparazzi Assault

Congrats to Seven Days for bagging an Election Eve scoop — getting a photo of the notoriously camera-shy Lenore Broughton, benefactor of far-right causes including Super PAC Vermonter(s) First.

The photo, which can be seen here (I won’t post it because they got the shot, they deserve the page views), was taken by photographer Andy Duback today at a Burlington City Hall elevator. He just managed to capture Broughton’s grim visage as the elevator doors were closing.

Just before they closed, Broughton had a message for the shutterbug: “You’re awful.”  Which, as far as I can remember, is her most extensive communication with the media this year.

I can hardly wait for the howls of outrage from the likes of Rob Roper. Assault by camera! Suppression of First Amendment rights! Harassing a frail old woman (work with me, Lenore) who merely wanted to express her opinions! Left-wing thuggery!

To which I would reply, oh, go soak your head. Broughton was in a public building, on her way to attending a public meeting of the Board of Registration of Voters (she’s one of nine members). She had her picture taken. Get over it.  

Hey Franklin County, vote for Caroline Bright!

(One of the most critical races in the state.  This is to save Democrat Sara Kittell’s seat!  Two vacant Senate seats and Vermonters First wants ’em both for the GOP. – promoted by Sue Prent)

Caroline Bright is running for State Senate in Franklin County.  And the election is tomorrow, so vote for her! Why? Watch! She has had to answer charges of youth and inexperience, but that is not the only thing she has in common with President Obama. It’s eeeerie I tell ya, eerie.  

Paul Decelles looks in the mirror and sees a true hero

A single solitary man, standing Galt-like against the unruly hordes of spendthrift liberalism. A giant among men. A David facing Goliath with only a sling and a little rock.

I’m talking about Paul Decelles, Republican member of Burlington City Council, and a ballot question facing Burlington voters on Election Day. The initiative, which would refinance a debt burden left over from the Burlington Telecom mess, was placed on the ballot by Council on a 13-1 vote. Guess who?

Councilor Paul Decelles, R-Ward 7 – who cast the sole vote against placing the bond on the ballot – said Friday he has been waging “essentially a one-man war” against the measure.

This brave, brave man. At least that’s what he told Freeploid reporter Joel Banner Baird last week. Problem: at the time he peddled that bit of heroic self-pity, he knew he had a big, rich, powerful friend in his corner.

First they supported statewide candidates. Then they tackled legislative races. Now Vermonters First, the big-spending, conservative super PAC, is going local.

That’s right, folks. Lenore Broughton’s Super PAC has enlisted in Decelles’ “one-man war.” VF put out a highly deceptive mailer that hit city residents’ mailboxes on Saturday. And, as Paul Heintz reports…

Republican Paul Decelles, tells Seven Days he worked with Vermonters First treasurer and consultant Tayt Brooks on the super PAC’s new mailer.

“We definitely talked about it,” Decelles says. “They ran some things by us and we ran some things by them.”

From the timing, it’s obvious that he knew all of that when he bragged to Baird about waging “essentially a one-man war.”

To be fair, he did insert the weasel word “essentially.” But in fact, his little “one-man war” is backstopped by the political equivalent of an aircraft carrier.

Some hero.  

Randy Brock finds a “scandal”… in the wrong administration

ICYMI, Randy Brock made a last-ditch effort to breathe life into his doomed candidacy for Governor, when he demanded a boatload of documents regarding state settlements with employees. Last Friday, the Shumlin Administration released the most relevant documents, thus defusing Brock’s ability to raise ersatz questions about the issue.

As far as we can tell, Brock hasn’t had a chance to read the documents — well, at least he hasn’t run to the microphones claiming to have found a smoking gun — but hey, VTDigger has stepped into the breach. One of its busy young bees, Nat Rudarakanchana, did look into the issue and came up with something of a bombshell — or at least a Roman candle. In the past five years, Vermont has spent nearly a million bucks on settlement claims with state workers according to information obtained from the state’s insurance carrier.

Wow, a million dollars. Big money. A sign of lax management by the Shumlin Administration, no?

Well, er, that would be no.

Of the 21 settlements listed in the document, 16 occurred during the Douglas Administration. Including ten of the eleven biggest payouts. The total score in dollars: Douglas $782,012.44, Shumlin $189,300. Even if you adjust the figures for Douglas’ longer tenure, he out-settled Shumlin by a wide margin.

As you might expect, Douglas has an explanation that could well have been made by Shumlin himself:

“With any group with large numbers of employees, there are going to be issues that require this kind of resolution,” said Douglas. “It’s just the nature of employment in a large organization.”

And another Brock balloon goes “pop”.

VOTE! (2%-3rd Party; 1%-Undecided)

Yes, as of today, that’s what the Rasmussen Poll says–49% for Romney, 48% for Obama, 2% Third Parties, and 1% undecided???  SPOOKY.

Well, it looks like we could get us a genuine Fuhrer for President by the early hours of the 7th.  Lucky Americans, we are.  We know the Fuhrer will make sure WalMarts open on time for those great sales we hit the streets for in the hundreds of thousands.  And he won’t take any shit from Muslims, Russia, China (well, maybe a little there), unions, women, workers, children, dogs, immigrants, gays, the elderly, the disabled, the war vets, teachers, scientists and researchers, artists, the sick, the homeless, the pimps, the pushers, and the peace ninnies.

No sir.  If America elects the Herr Mittster tomorrow, we’re gonna see a New America.  One that historians will be writing about long after…hey, wait…there won’t be any historians anymore.  Or anything or anyone left to write about.  ‘Cept a bunch of very very rich people living it up underground, waiting for the day they can crawl out from under their rocks, look around, lift their martinis and say:  “It’s all ours!  At last!  Wish we had saved some of those dumb assholes who made it possible way back in 2016 to clean up around here.  Damn.”

Well, perhaps the Fuhrer will think of something.  He has A PLAN, right?  But what if he doesn’t?  Oh my.  I know.  That 2% and that 1%.  Plenty enough labor force there.  Yeah.  And quite suitable for the task.  Perhaps I should still consider writing in Roseanne?  Nah.  I don’t want to live under a rock.  Oh well.  Goodbye U.S.A.  Goodbye Earth.  

And long live The Fucking Revolution.  The one that said:  “There’s just no difference, and who gives a shit anyway.  Hand me my shovel.”

(Boy, I am getting like so really pissed at this country.  Sigh.  If you’re a Dumb Selfish Asshole, do you die slower?  Or does it just seem that way?  I guess we shall see.)

Peter Buknatski

Montpelier, Vt    

Thumbs up, thumbs down, and a poke in the eye

WCAX-TV, for managing to maintain ideological purity in the face of logic, common sense, and the need to fill a half-hour of airtime. I’m referring to this week’s edition of “You Can Quote Me,” Channel 3’s Sunday morning interview program, which featured three WCAX meteorologists being interviewed by reporter Gina Bullard about Superstorm Sandy. And you’ll never guess which subject never came up.

Yep. Climate change. Or global warming, whichever. Those dastardly phrases never once passed the lips of anyone on the panel. Another example of why the late lamented Peter Freyne dubbed Channel 3 “WGOP” for its fealty to conservatism.

There was time to shamelessly plug WCAX’s new mobile weather app, and there was time for the weather guys to talk about how social media has changed their jobs (“people don’t have to wait for the 6:00 news anymore”), but not a peep about how Sandy and other weather events might be related to climate change.

Bullard came close a couple of times; she brought up the number of severe weather events in our recent past, but diverted the question into a safe channel. And near the end of the show, she asked the panel if Sandy was a taste of what’s to come. The answer was confined solely to the outlook for this coming winter.

I realize that there isn’t a direct provable link between climate change and any single storm, but to spend a half hour on Sandy and not even broach the subject? You may have outdone yourselves, WGOP.  

Wendy Wilton, for abandoning a sinking ship. Seems the Republican candidate for Treasurer — the VTGOP’s best hope to elect a real conservative to statewide office — won’t be attending the party’s election-night gathering in Montpelier. Instead, she’ll watch the returns in her home city of Rutland.

You’d think WIlton would have shown a bit more loyalty to the party that elevated her to its statewide ticket. But maybe she simply knows where her support really comes from: Lenore Broughton and her tame Super PAC, Vermonter(s) First. I mean, the VTGOP may have given her the nomination, but because they have such limited resources, they haven’t been able to give her much in the way of tangible backing. As the Vermont Press Bureau’s Peter Hirschfeld reported, the VTGOP’s field operations and GOTV effort are much weaker and less well organized than the Democrats’. That may well cost her the election. And if she does win, the credit will belong to Lenore Broughton and Vermonter First, not the Republican Party. So why drive up to Montpelier just to spend the evening with a bunch of ill-tempered and increasingly inebriated middle-aged men watching their party slide into the abyss?

After the jump: yogurt FTW, a Young Republican A$$hole outdoes himself, and a rare double for Wendy Wilton.

Commonwealth Dairy of  Brattleboro, for being Vermont’s latest entrepreneurial success story. Last week, the company announced a $12 million expansion of the plant where it makes Greek-style yogurt. It’s still early days, and the big boys are rushing to market with their own Greek-style offerings, but Commonwealth is growing fast, providing good jobs and a big new market for Vermont dairy farms. (Commonwealth sells under its own label, Green Mountain Creamery, and also produces yogurt for other clients.)

And all this in a state that, if you believe the Republicans, is so punitive of success that the entrepreneurial spirit is in danger of extinction. Company executives credited Vermont’s Congressional delegation for helping them obtain federal tax credits for developing businesses, and also praised the “terrific workforce” in Brattleboro. I guess there’s more to encouraging entrepreneurialism than low taxes and lax regulation, and I guess the Bratt is more than just a haven for hippie burnouts.

Corry Bliss, young Republican operative/Karl Rove wannabe, for taking his current campaign to new lows of deception. That would be the Senatorial bid of Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut. Bliss was last seen in these parts piloting the Brian Dubie campaign to defeat; he was last heard from in these parts issuing a court-ordered apology to settle a libel lawsuit arising from the Dubie campaign. And regarding the quality of that effort, here’s a remarkable piece of testimony:

“Corry Bliss took a candidate that was up 20 points and turned him into a loser by election day,” said Bradford Broyles, a Republican activist from Mendon, a town in the central part of the state, near Killington. “We’re still repairing the damage to the Republican party.”

That would be the same Bradford Broyles who is flacking for Vermont’s most mendacious candidate (2012 edition), Wendy Wilton. Talk about the pot and the kettle.

Anyway, Bliss has confirmed his reputation as a grade-Z Republican operative in the Rovian tradition with this shamelessly misleading door-hanger:

Which tells you all you need to know about Corry Bliss’ ethics. Not to mention Mitt Romney’s popularity in the Nutmeg State.

The guy who repairs my wood stove, for getting off the ad-lib of the week. While he was at my house last week, I happened upon the wire story about someone reporting a naked man on I-91 in southeast Vermont. When the Vermont State Police responded, they found a mannequin alongside the highway.

To which my stove guy, without the slightest pause, said “Did they taser it first?”

Also, a thumbs-up to the VSP for thoroughness:

State police say if anyone is missing a mannequin to contact the Brattleboro barracks.

Freeploid political reporter Terri Hallenbeck, for resorting to filler material in the heat of Campaign 2012. On Friday, Hallenbeck posted a lengthy entry on the Freeploid’s political blog vt.Buzz that was a listing of issues at stake on Election Day — in other states.

Cribbed from the New York Times.

Hallenbeck made a weak-tea case for the post’s relevance in its headline: “Marijuana, marriage and other hot Vt. issues other state (sic) are voting on.” She then reported that the Times had a “condensed rundown” of what’s at stake elsewhere, and then noted that the Times had nothing much to say about Vermont because it’s a “steadily blue state” with “no ballot measures” this year. The rest of Hallenbeck’s post was a bullet-point rundown of what other states will be voting on.

Hard to believe a political reporter couldn’t find anything else to occupy her time just a few days before the election.

was destined to go to Governor Peter Shumlin for his buddy act with Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott. But a late recount swung the final tally in favor of Republican candidate for Treasurer Wendy Wilton, for running a fundamentally dishonest campaign.

Lots of politicians lie. (cough)Mitt Romney(cough) But it’s rare for a big lie to provide the entire basis for a campaign, as in the case of Wendy Wilton. Go back 18 months or so; she was a one-term State Senator who lost her bid for re-election, and then served as Rutland city treasurer. Nice, but not usually a launching pad for a statewide political career.

Then she ginned up a slanted “study” of Governor Shumlin’s health care reform plan that labeled it a fiscal disaster. And that turned her into the closest thing to a “rising star” in the dim constellation of the VTGOP. She traveled the state giving talks and media interviews, and her “study” became the basis for Republican attacks on the issue.

And she became a viable candidate for statewide office. Not because of her performance as Rutland’s treasurer (which is something else she has freely and consistently lied about), but because she presented a plausibly “expert” analysis that could be used as a cudgel against Shumlin’s plan.

Then she became the nominee for state Treasurer. And ever since, she has denied the plain truth of her entire political record and depicted herself as an objective technocrat.

There are politicians who lie. But Wendy Wilton is a politician who IS a lie. Big difference, and worthy of a Poke in the Eye.  

The weird and wacky world of Linda McMahon

No doubt you’ve heard about GOP Senate candidate, Linda McMahon of Connecticut trying to grab an illicit hitch on President Obama’s coattails.  It seems  to be an act of pure desperation by McMahon who has little hope of defeating Democrat Chris Murphy, who actually received the President’s endorsement.

In a season of extreme head-slappers this example of crust barely merits mention; that is, until you take a look at the candidate’s bizarre personal history.

Mrs. McMahon, who, together with her husband of 50+ years, Vince McMahon, presides over the professional wrestling empire that is the WWE, has been implicated in the rampant steroid drug abuse within the organization that came to light at the time of the sensational murder-suicide of Canadian wrestler, Chris Benoit in 2007.

Documents from the Oversight and Government Reform Committee that investigated the WWE following the Benoit incident, were damning:

The documents stated that 75 wrestlers-roughly 40 percent-had tested positive for drug use since 2006, most commonly for steroids.

Curiously, no action was ever taken by the Committee.

Linda was asked why there had been no follow-up during a televised interview with CBS Face the State on January 20, 2010 and responded, “There’s not been any follow-up from any of the inquiries that were made because I believe we had furnished thousands of documents and testimony for them, and I think if they looked at our policy and really delved into it, they would be very satisfied.”

‘No reason to suspect influence peddling there!

Always ready to give the paying fans whatever they wanted, Mrs. McMahon even wrestled her husband in a celebrated “grudge match,” before finally setting her sights on the Senate.  She tried to clean up the act by adopting the TV Parental Guidelines for the traditionally violent and sexually suggestive WWE in order to rehabilitate her image, but failed to win a Senate seat in 2010.

Apparently voters were none too impressed with her conservative credentials:

Under Linda’s tenure, WWE became one of the largest recipients of special tax credits for film and TV production granted by the State of Connecticut. During her 2010 campaign, Blumenthal’s campaign criticized her and WWE for accepting the tax credits while laying off workers in 2009.

So, now she apparently is prepared to go to any length to give the suckers what they want, even if it means misrepresenting herself as an “Obama Girl.”

I predict a smackdown, once again, for Linda McMahon’s senatorial ambitions.