No winner was declared last night, but it sure looks like Bill Sorrell has survived TJ Donovan’s primary challenge for the Democratic AG nomination. I have a few reflections on the outcome.
Sorrell should be embarrassed. It’s really stunning that a 15-year incumbent came so close to losing his party primary. Usually, long-term incumbents have to either commit murder or die to lose a primary. Bill Sorrell almost managed it; he had to scratch, claw, and fight — and bring in some outside money — to win the primary by only a few hundred votes.
Sorrell should be checking himself. One might expect to see some introspection on the part of someone who’d just come thisclose to the ignominious end of his political career. Perhaps some apologies, some promises to examine his performance and learn why he lost the support of so many, and how he might do his job better in the future. Instead, in his primary-night speech, we got ear-to-ear grins, a complete dismissal of the Republican candidate, and the next-best thing to a declaration of victory — not for the primary, but for the general election and another two-year term.
Sorrell is a remarkably ungracious winner. His primary-night speech contained not a word about his opponent, directly or otherwise. It did contain a veiled warning to those who dared oppose him:
Others have said to me about primaries that they’re just so bad. people you think are going to be with you aren’t. And when you see people who don’t look you straight in the eye, you know they’re not with you.
But at the same time, there are all these folks who are with you 100% and it means so much to you. And I want you to know that in a fight like this, you find out who your friends are. And I will never, ever forget what you’ve done for me, and what you’re doing for me right now.
He didn’t add the obvious corollary “I found out who my enemies are and I will never, ever forget them,” but the implication is pretty damn clear. No sign of reaching out beyond his circle of true friends, no acknowledgment that he needs to win the trust of those who voted against him.
The anti-Sorrell folks left some ammo on the shelf. In the months before the vote, I heard some negative things about Sorrell and his record that were never made public. Some were general, some were pretty specific. I didn’t write about those things because my knowledge was completely second-hand.
I kept waiting to see this stuff come to the surface, but most of it never did. I suspect that the anti-Sorrell forces were trying to keep things relatively polite, which is a noble aspiration. But given the fact that Donovan lost so narrowly, I have to wonder if those folks aren’t having some second thoughts about their reticence.
The Castleton Polling Institute needs to do some work on their sampling techniques. Their pre-primary poll gave Sorrell a 2-1 edge, almost unchanged from the May survey. There was some blowback at the time, some criticism of Castleton’s sampling process. The critics had a point, apparently.
Although I do believe Castelton’s gubernatorial poll is right: Shumlin’s gonna mop the floor with Brock.
So, what lessons did you learn last night?
Money works.
Even though nothing’s official, if you look at the map at the Secretary of State’s page it’s hard to see where TJ finds a 600 vote margin over Sorrell.
I don’t think people were predicting this two or three weeks ago, before the big ad buy by Sorrell’s super PAC. Not begrudging him that, his supporters are entitled to support him, but in a race this close I don’t think you can ignore the effect of big bucks and the unanswered media it bought.
Cringed when I read it and groaned when I listened to Sorrel speak it just now on VPR
[ok stop there enough said the sentiment is clear]
[ no really stop that’s kind of …]
[noooo ,alarm bells,flashing lights, whistles and sirens ! Caution you are nearing Nixon territory ]
The notion of him participating in a unity rally is laughable, and there’s no question – this was a race bought by corporate money. I really hope people don’t forget about the obscene amount of money that came in to air those ads.
Politically, I think all the complaining the Donovan campaign did about the SuperPAC ads looked weak, distracted from a lot more real criticism they could have levied at Sorrell’s record, and in general just distracted from the work they needed to do. But that said, when you look at the numbers – both at the polls and the $’s spent on television – it’s pretty obvious what determined the outcome of this race.
And it’s going to keep deciding races until someone can bring it down – if you weren’t sure already, that person definitely won’t be Bill Sorrell.
If Sorrell wins, I’d say it’s the most shameful thing Democrats have done to Vermont in, say, the last 20 years. I voted early, saw light turnout. I think with a little more support for Donovan from Dems on County Committees, the turnout would have been higher, but Sorrell got the Establishment Dem vote, and the REGULARS will hold onto their goddamn petty power. Actually not petty, with an AG who will ignore the Civil Rights of workers, the elderly and infirmed, the demand for more transparency of public records relating to law enforcement and police action, the indiscriminate use of tasers, and the growing crime problem related to out-of-state and in-state drug networks.
And yes, the dirty little bastard grins. He feels he won and can say Fuck You to all of us who are not his friends. Appalling. Like those High School elections for Most Likely To Become A Hack Politician.
If Sorrell gets it, I declare the Vermont Attorney General’s office another one of them (what?) missing persons.
Are the Dems seriously considering Sorrell for Gov in 2016? Jesus. This is as bad as what’s going on in Tampa. I hope Donovan runs in November as a Prog or Independent.
Disgraceful, Dems. SHAMEFUL!