Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine, and Peter Shumlin have just released a joint letter announcing their plans to campaign together during the Democratic Gubernatorial Recount.

As we prepare for the recount process we wanted to share with you our united plan to ensure that no matter what the results of the recount are, we will beat Brian Dubie in November.

With the unofficial results showing Peter winning by 197 votes, we all agree that he should continue to campaign as the presumptive nominee. We’ve also agreed to campaign together while the recount takes place. Our vision for Vermont is dramatically different than Brian Dubie’s and as this process unfolds, it is critical that Vermonters understand the contrast between Brian’s vision and our own.

See the complete letter from the three highest vote getters in the primary below the fold.

I have been incredibly impressed by the Democratic candidates grace and unity throughout their campaigns, the primary election itself, the close vote, the unity rally, and now the decision to recount.  Each of the five candidates honor the meaning of being a Democrat in Vermont.  What’s your take?

As we prepare for the recount process we wanted to share with you our united plan to ensure that no matter what the results of the recount are, we will beat Brian Dubie in November.

With the unofficial results showing Peter winning by 197 votes, we all agree that he should continue to campaign as the presumptive nominee. We’ve also agreed to campaign together while the recount takes place. Our vision for Vermont is dramatically different than Brian Dubie’s and as this process unfolds, it is critical that Vermonters understand the contrast between Brian’s vision and our own.

We will all be working together over the coming days to ensure that the recount process happens as quickly and effectively as possible so the nominee has as much time as possible to beat Brian. In addition, the three of us will continue to work together to ensure that fundraising, staffing and other efforts essential to the campaign continue.

In many ways, this may have been the most extraordinary primary in the history of Vermont. All five opponents articulated their vision for Vermont without disparaging each other. The reason that roughly 75,000 Vermonters turned out to vote is because they were energized by these positive visions. Whatever the results of the recount, the Democratic nominee will have this energy, passion, and excitement behind them as they take on Brian Dubie.

Thank you for all of your support.

Best,

Doug, Peter and Deb  

(I’ve said that recounts don’t change these elections by three figures unless there was a clear screw-up somewhere… this diary breaks that throwaway line out into a real argument. – promoted by odum)

The chance that the recount of the 5-way primary election for the Democratic nomination will change the results is virtually nil unless systematic fraud was done by people trying to prevent Racine’s election. Since nobody thinks that was the case, what the recount is going to to do is to clean up all the little random errors that creep into the process:

* hand counted ballots that are accidentally put into the wrong pile

* rejected ballots that clearly indicate a preference

* errors of transposition of numbers

* errors of transcription of numbers for one candidate into an other candidate

Errors of the last two types are highly unlikely given the closeness of the outcome. Before transmitting the official results on Wednesday, clerks around the state knew the importance of triple checking their work. Furthermore, the double blind entry of data at the state election office assured the state that it was identifying and resolving those issues right away.

Indeed, after all this careful work Shumlin’s lead increased by around a dozen votes. And the final results, when you look at them by county and town, all fit into patterns that don’t raise any red flags where one might say “golly, did Lamoile county mix up Matt Dunne’s results with Susan Bartlett’s?

Now the question becomes how many of the other two types of errors were there? Well, the state bar for demanding a recount is for the vote differential to be under 2%. This implies that the state anticipates a 1% error rate in vote counting and reporting — because a 1% error can turn a 2% victory into a tie.

This in turn means that there may be around 750 errors out there. Random errors — we’ve already decided that nobody thinks there was fraud anywhere.

How will random errors distribute themselves?

Randomly.

This means that each candidate’s error rate will be in proportion to the votes they attracted. Doug and Peter would both be expected to have around 180 errors. If they broke 50-50, they both wind up in the same place. But they won’t break 50-50 because of the other candidates in the race. Instead the votes Peter loses will go proportionally to Doug, Deb, Matt and Susan. And the votes Doug loses will go to Peter, Deb, Matt and Susan.

It’s the involvement of the other 5 candidates that make the recount extremely unlikely to change the outcome if the errors are random.

Since nobody in the Racine camp is pointing out to problems with the vote totals out of a particular county or town, I’m not sure why they think there is more than a one-in-a-thousand chance that the random errors will break in Doug’s favor. In effect, they are saying that in 180 flips of their own coin they are going to come up heads 2/3rds of the time, and that when Peter flips his coin 180 times he’s going to come up tails 2/3rds of the time and so will Deb, Matt and Susan — and that the benefit of all the ‘tails’ flips will be in Doug’s favor.

That’s a very, very, very, very, very, very steep hill of probability to climb.

From Hallenbeck at the Freeps:

Republican congressional candidate Paul Beaudry tested positive for marijuana use while he was a member of the Vermont National Guard in 2000 and was ordered to undergo drug counseling but instead retired from the Guard.

So let’s be clear; when the guy whose whole campaign is centered around being the gung-ho, arch-conservative super-military dude was told that, if he wanted to keep serving his country, he would just have to put down the bong – what does he choose?

He chooses the bong.

I guess its about priorities.

that the primary wasn’t held until next month … or better yet, that we used IRV.

Amid the turmoil and suspense surrounding an inconclusive primary outcome, we can turn to our Vermont delegation for a reminder of how good it feels to all be on the same progressive page. In a joint-press release, Senators Leahy and Sanders, and Rep. Welch announced yesterday that Vermont would be the beneficiary of an injection of federal funding to help some low-income Vermonters achieve energy savings through the use of “smart” metering and installation of thermal and solar hot water systems in their homes. Sen.Leahy is quoted as saying:

Vermont is a national leader in using the Weatherization Program’s stimulus funds for cost and energy savings for low-income households…With our older housing stock and longer winters, these investments are likely to save Vermont families far more than the national average of $400 a year in reduced energy costs.”

To which Sen. Sanders adds:

This federal support will be a major step forward in moving our state toward a greener economy.”

The Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, a non-profit better known to Vermonters as “Efficiency Vermont,” will have charge of administering the $700,000. federal investment, which represents reinforcement for an earlier $69. million stimulus from the feds. It should be noted here that the Douglas/Dubie administration has consistently opposed funding of Efficiency Vermont. The projection is that, with the new funding, assistance can be provided to approximately 750 low income households to help them reduce and better utilize their energy consumption so that they can realize cost savings, while Vermont's greater economy and environment benefit at the same time. According to Peter Welch:

This additional $5.7 million award recognizes Vermont’s past successes, while paving the way for future savings.”

Well done, Gentlemen. I dare anyone to characterize this green investment in a cash-strapped population as “pork.”

The official results for the top two are 18,276 for Peter Shumlin, 18,079 for Doug Racine – a difference of 194 197 in Shumlin’s favor and representing a 12 vote increase in the margin as originally reported. Other numbers: Markowitz – 17,580, Dunne – 15,323, Bartlett – 3,759, for a D turnout of 74,634. Click here for more detail

The Racine campaign has announced a press conference for 3:30 pm at the Richmond Town Center to announce the Senator’s “decision,” as the press release says. Word parsers may consider the implications of using the word “decision” as opposed to something more open-ended, such as “next step.” Senator Racine has indicated he will request a recount.

Other results as they become available.

Update: In other news Progressive Party gubernatorial candidate Martha Abbott has declared that she will withdraw her name from the November ballot, declining the party’s nomination. Today at 5 p.m. is the deadline for such notifications to the Secretary of State’s Elections Division Office.

Progressives had indicated earlier that they might well withdraw after the primary election if the Democrats nominated a candidate with whom they could agree on major issues. With several Progressive candidates for the legislature running as Democrats, there seems to be an increasing recognition that splitting the liberal vote is not a winning strategy.

update Markowitz’s statement:

Although it was not my intention to initiate a recount, I respect Doug’s right to do so under the law. I know this must have been a very difficult decision for him to make. Now the recount process must play itself out according to the law. The recount is overseen by the Washington County Superior Court. I know the courts will proceed as quickly as possible so that the general election campaign can begin in earnest. I know that both Peter and Doug share my values, and the values of most Vermonters, while Brian Dubie does not. Our focus must be to count the votes and move forward quickly so we can beat Brian Dubie and get Vermonters back to work.

update Shumlin’s statement:

Burlington, Vt – “I am encouraged by the unofficial certified numbers released by the Secretary of State today, which show me receiving more votes than the other contenders.  Doug is a great candidate who ran a great race.  I understand that Doug is going to exercise his legal right to a recount and I respect his decision.”

Update Racine’s statement:

Just a short while ago, I announced that I will request a recount of the primary election results. I spoke with Peter Shumlin earlier today, and he said he would support my decision.

I have heard from hundreds of you in the past few days, and the overwhelming sentiment is that a recount is necessary. In the end, this is about our democratic process. Every Vermonter deserves to know that his or her vote was counted correctly.

With fewer than 200 votes separating Peter and me (that’s less than one vote per town), I owe it to Vermonters to make sure this is the correct outcome.

I will do everything I can to expedite the recount process. In the meantime, I would urge you to get involved in the Vermont Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign, the organization responsible for getting out the Democratic vote for candidates up and down the ballot in November. Thank you for your support.

( – promoted by GMD)

I took the unofficial results and put them into Tableau and came up with these vizualizations.

Results by Town

Results by County

…Brian Dubie was in the Adirondacks having dinner with people like GW Bush, who dragged us 5,000 years into the past. The Republican Party remains deeply confused about American values.

Does Brian Dubie really want to lead us to more hand-holding with and dancing for foreign kings? Leadership is critical in these times, but not leadership that’s confused about the right direction!

Republicanism is a form of government, but the Republicans that Brian Dubie dined with have confused it with totalitarianism, the most UnAmerican form of government.

When no one has market power, free markets are the most efficient way to allocate goods and services. In their confusion, Republicans have forgotten the first phrase of that cornerstone of market theory.

Anyone who knows what a free market is knows that GW Bush was never a free market guy. Does that mean that the Republican Party was confused about free markets, or does it mean that they knew, but didn’t tell us?

Jesus spoke truth to power, but Brian Dubie’s confusion makes his christianity a submissive servant when faced with older values and gods which all modern religions reject.

Judaism and Christianity are religions which attempt to empower average people and build wealth, but Brian Dubie’s friends have confused it with the worship of money, which leaves us fighting more and more over less and less.

Republicans’ confusion has meant Iraqification of American government and society. Our soldiers, under fire from Iraq’s secret groups, try to bring Iraq’s politics out into the light, but Brian Dubie’s friends live by subverting openness and disguising their intent.

These eight sound bites could have been out there as a quick response to Brian Dubie’s post-primary remarks about Democrats being confused. What was out there instead?

Peter Shumlin was on the Mark Johnson show on Thursday, on the defensive, saying that Dems aren’t confused, and had great candidates. Callers said that the Democrats have no leader, unlike the Republicans. Shumlin didn’t bring up the direction of Republican leadership.

I want to see a fight for our basic values, with two or more sides that bring issues and ideas into the open. I haven’t seen a desire on the part of any of the Democratic candidates to talk about American values. That’s why I haven’t considered contributing to the GMD fund for the governor’s race.

It’s clear that Republicans secretly believe that the left is right, but to keep their privileged position, Republicans are willing to do wrong. That’s why they knowingly blow such a smokescreen over everything they do!

But, do the Democrats secretly believe that the Republicans are right on American values? Is that why there is no public fight from them, on these basic issues?

What irony! The two parties each secretly believe that the other is right, but each blows a smokescreen to allow them to each follow their own individual self-interest, which in the long run, takes them to the same place!

I propose that, instead of raising funds to promote individual candidates, Green Mountain Daily should raise funds to promote basic American values!

While we have many views on many issues, there are self evident truths that we can all agree on. On these truths, we can sound a positive note, while condemning falsehood.

How can we do this? One way is to work on sound bites, post them as such, let people vote on them, and fund the winners. Ideally, votes should be public, to protect the integrity of the process.

Please, let’s have a discussion on this!

This just in…An excerpt from the speech Glenn Beck will deliver tomorrow in DC…Obtained through a spam e-mail from the Bank of Nigeria:

“…and yes, restoring honor means exposing the Conspiracies this nation has been in the grips of since Eugene Debs brought the Red and Godless message to America…for instance, I know and you know that that great liberal baseball player, Joe DiMaggio, was behind the JFK assassination, because of Marilyn Monroe, who was killed by Elvis because she was responsible for the death of Clark Gable, with whom Elvis wanted to make a movie…a movie in which Gable would play FDR, who was actually poisoned by that great and unsung American patriot, Edward Teller, played by Elvis, because Teller knew FDR was going to give our A-Bomb secrets to Stalin, in return for Stalin’s work on persuading Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor, thus allowing the USA to go to war with Hitler, who was a vegetarian and anti-smoker, before Hitler turned the whole world into one big Vegetarian Commune, where the good things in life, like smoking, drinking and nuclear weapons, would be outlawed…I found information on this Vegetarian Conspiracy on a 1967 album by Frank Zappa and The Mothers of Invention called “Absolutely Free”–by playing the cut “Call Any Vegetable” backwards…this is why Bill and Hillary Clinton had Zappa killed in ’93, before he could put out a song about the assassination of Vince Foster…just look at the Blagojevich trial in Illinois…I know about his part in all this too…and now they want to build a mosque in Miami Beach, thereby forcing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to relocate to Des Moines, Iowa, where they will all be wiped in a massive tornado brought about by God’s wrath over Gay Marriage, Abortion, and Socialism, thus giving the New York Yankees the American League East, which brings us back to Joe DiMaggio…”  Etc.

Now, do you suppose they can say anything stupider than this tomorrow?  We shall see. A Conspiracy Of Nitwits.  Scary stuff.

Peter Buknatski

Montpelier, Vt.  

This just in…An excerpt from the speech Glenn Beck will deliver tomorrow in DC…Obtained through a spam e-mail from the Bank of Nigeria:

“…and yes, restoring honor means exposing the Conspiracies this nation has been in the grips of since Eugene Debs brought the Red and Godless message to America…for instance, I know and you know that that great liberal baseball player, Joe DiMaggio, was behind the JFK assassination, because of Marilyn Monroe, who was killed by Elvis because she was responsible for the death of Clark Gable, with whom Elvis wanted to make a movie…a movie in which Gable would play FDR, who was actually poisoned by that great and unsung American patriot, Edward Teller, played by Elvis, because Teller knew FDR was going to give our A-Bomb secrets to Stalin, in return for Stalin’s work on persuading Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor, thus allowing the USA to go to war with Hitler, who was a vegetarian and anti-smoker, before Hitler turned the whole world into one big Vegetarian Commune, where the good things in life, like smoking, drinking and nuclear weapons, would be outlawed…I found information on this Vegetarian Conspiracy on a 1967 album by Frank Zappa and The Mothers of Invention called “Absolutely Free”–by playing the cut “Call Any Vegetable” backwards…this is why Bill and Hillary Clinton had Zappa killed in ’93, before he could put out a song about the assassination of Vince Foster…just look at the Blagojevich trial in Illinois…I know about his part in all this too…and now they want to build a mosque in Miami Beach, thereby forcing the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to relocate to Des Moines, Iowa, where they will all be wiped in a massive tornado brought about by God’s wrath over Gay Marriage, Abortion, and Socialism, thus giving the New York Yankees the American League East, which brings us back to Joe DiMaggio…”  Etc.

Now, do you suppose they can say anything stupider than this tomorrow?  We shall see. A Conspiracy Of Nitwits.  Scary stuff.

Peter Buknatski

Montpelier, Vt.