(Tomorrow is the second week of my Vermont Journal column. Since the first wasn’t available online, I thought I might reprint it here. It’s very fluffy and tame by GMD standards, but don’t worry – I get more aggressive this week. The VJ is delivered to about 20,000 homes across all of Lamoille County, about a third of Washington County and a li’l smidgin of Chittenden County)
Vermont’s lack of party registration makes for an odd sort of independence in major elections such as the one coming up in November. It’s not like the comparable label in other states, where “Independent” is always an affirmative statement. As far as politics are concerned, it’s often a more matter-of-fact independence that we see in Vermont – not so much a personal decision so much as the personal default.
This unusual dynamic has created an equally unusual class of swing voter. Though most Vermonters would probably self-identify as generally Republican, Democrat or Progressive, this matter-of-fact independence has given us a large swath of statewide swing voters that decide who they intend to vote for, not based on the ads or the pundits, bur rather, much the way they might decide what to wear on a night out on the town.
Most people (yeah, even men) look at their going-out wardrobe as a collective statement that announces their personality. Someone might choose to dress on the “crunchy-granola” side, but in new and expensive clothing to identify as somewhat alternative, but well-off and sophisticated at the same time. Perhaps a business suit, but with a catchy tie that says “I may be professional, but I’m not boring.”
When Vermont swing voters vote their personal slate on Election Day, many are thinking much the same way. In Washington County (where I live), that accounts for the number of self-identifying liberals who vote for long time Republican Senator Bill Doyle every two years. Where they’ll vote in nearly every other race for those candidates who reflect their interests and ideology, they use a vote for Doyle to make a personal statement of independence. To demonstrate to themselves and others that they are free thinkers, unbound by partisan orthodoxy. Doyle becomes their wacky tie in an otherwise consistent ensemble.
Similarly, conservatives often use a Bernie Sanders vote as a way to make the statement that, while they may be no fans of liberals, they’re savvy enough to realize that large corporations need to have a skeptical eye kept on them.
While perhaps a bit endearing, this dynamic often makes it difficult for qualified challengers to get their message through to people (the obvious exception being Sanders’ challenger Rich Tarrant, who through sheer personal wealth has forced his attack ads into everyone’s face over and over again, but such an in-your-face attack strategy has only served to turn voters off). Incumbents become like favorite outfits that swing voters only bring out for that special event once every other year, leaving many of us on both sides of the political divide scratching our heads, wondering what exactly that 10-15% is thinking
It’s for this reason that we should be grateful for the US Representative race between Peter Welch and Martha Rainville, which is forcing the swing-set to sit up and take a little more notice. Hopefully this extra attention will encourage more of this slice of the electorate to step back a bit and truly examine which candidates actually match their own ideology up and down the ballot, rather than just falling back on old habits once again.
All of us will be better served if they do.