Stop the presses!! Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie actually followed through and participated in today’s debate on the Mark Johnson Show! Perhaps he had some extra Wheaties this morning. Or perhaps the choir of voices taking him to task for hiding from a direct confrontation with his opponents finally reached a critical mass. In any event, the Lite Gov, who has only agreed to five debates and has already backed out of two, has finally deigned to throw the democratic process a bone (pesky democratic process).

But how did it go? I couldn’t listen, but I’d love to hear a report. The question is, now that Dubie has poked his head out from his hidey-hole, will he see his shadow and dash back in by cancelling more debates, or will he see that maybe it isn’t so gosh darn scary after all and reconsider his intent to bag this weekend’s scheduled forum at Sterling College? He doubtless has plenty of fans telling him to simply ignore the election (Haik has even suggested that since Dubie had a two week flyover of Baghdad and could also probably beat me up, that he should get a free pass for his abject fear of facing Dunne in a fair fight… not sure how that logic works, exactly…).

But who knows? After today, maybe a sense of honor and respect for our constitutional Republic will suddenly re-emerge, trumping his fear and craven strategy of self-presevation. Maybe he’ll feel some self-consciousness about the patheticly tiny number of debates he’s agreed to and at the very least, reschedule the two he blew off… maybe, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

In any event, the Dunne campaign (which has apparently pulled former Vermonters First blogger and gubernatorial gadfly Adam Quinn out of his short-lived Planned Parenthood gig) has announced a presser tomorrow that will herald the change of heart of a major Dubie supporter to the Dunne camp. No word on who that might be, so we’ll have to wait til tomorrow to see, unless one of you has a tidbit (waddaya think… maybe Illuzzi??).

UPDATE: Nope – according to Freyne, it’s the Vermont Troopers Foundation, which endorsed Dubie two years ago. Great news for Dunne, but maybe not quite as juicy as the press release led us to hope…

From the Cape Cod Times:

David Atkinson, hemp-loving nudist, tree surgeon, extoller of the virtues of civil disobedience and former Provincetown selectman, has somehow ended up running for the Vermont House of Representatives as a Republican.

This peculiar twist in the fabric of the universe has humble, almost Huck Finn-ish origins: ”The Republicans couldn’t find anyone to run, so they advertised for candidates,” said Atkinson, reached by phone at his Braintree, Vt., home. ”I was walking in Randolph (Vt.) one day and I saw an ad for candidates on a bulletin board and I called them up.”

Amazingly, Atkinson – who once proposed raffling off a pound of marijuana to fund a Cape campaign – advanced to the general election with a Republican primary win over a candidate who was hobbled by a Southern accent, said Mary Daly, Orange County (Vt.) chairwoman of the state Republican Party.

”From a personal perspective, I would be extremely surprised if David does much in the general election,” said Daly. ”He’s a little far out there.

An ad for candidates on a bulletin board? A Provincetown selectman? Raffling off marijuana? A primary candidate was “hobbled by a southern accent?” Where to begin? And Orange County? Will the Randolph Herald be forced to endorse a (gasp) Democrat?!

Oh well. I’d vote for him before I’d vote for most other Republicans…

[The following was written for my Vermont Journal column, and appeared in last week’s issue]

Opposing candidates spend a lot of time working out the differences between themselves on the important issues of the day, and everybody jumps at the opportunity to make one’s opponent’s campaign the issue. It’s a one way argument that keeps the other guy on the defensive. The most obvious example is the US Senate race, where Rich Tarrant’s unprecedented attacks on Bernie Sanders have become a potent issue all by themselves.

In the US Congress race, the Welch campaign has been focused on the positive, and has therefore not trumpeted the fact that the Rainville campaign has also become an issue among political observers – not for going negative – but for questions of competence. Consider the unique record the Rainville operation has of repeatedly shooting itself in the foot.

First there were questions raised as to whether or not she was raising funds for her exploratory committee above what is allowed by law, while being cagey about whether or not she truly intended to run. Then there were her suggestions that she could run for office while keeping
her position as Adjutant General, a theory she continued to advance even when this garnered scads of bad press. After eventually promising not to campaign in uniform, her operatives raised six figures for her run while she was still in her military position, again needlessly drawing bad press.

When she became an official candidate and stayed away from committing to any meaningful policy positions, the media by default found other things to focus on – specifically her record of accepting money from sleazy sources. Her back and forth over how to handle each one was an astonishing display of campaign ineptitude. She wouldn’t accept tobacco money, but she’d accept money from those connected to tobacco. She’d accept money connected to jailed Congressman Duke Cunningham, but decided to return money connected to a high-profile Republican spouse abuser. Connections to disgraced former GOP leader Tom DeLay were also okay.

And it would only get worse when she would try to speak about issues. Asked whether her wishy-washiness on Iraq was an attempt to have it both ways, she responded “I think if we’re smart, we’re all at one point supporters, and we’re all critics, because we need to think for ourselves, and we need to cut through to the truth” – in effect doing John Kerry’s “I voted for it before I voted against it” line one better by taking two positions simultaneously.

Next was her use of a VT Guard IT staffer for her campaign website – a violation of military rules. Then followed the back and forth on whether or not Donald Rumsfeld should step down. There were the public spats with Sen. Patrick Leahy (Vermont’s most popular politician), over whether she intended to run for office as a Democrat years earlier, and again over the revelation that she had lobbied the Senator for legislation that could financially benefit a contributor.

Then there’s the continuing plagiarism scandal (as activists continue to find further examples of lifted material on her website). This week heralds an inappropriate use of Senator Jim Jeffords image in an ad, coaxing an endorsement of Welch from the Senator who had previously intended to remain neutral. If the brewing scandal (reported in Seven Days suggesting that she protected Guard members who were distributing homemade pornography in violation of military rules ever breaks open, there’s no telling how Team Rainville will make a mess of that one.

I’ve never seen such a display of ineptness on either side of a major election. As a new political candidate, Rainville gets extra room to learn the ropes, but this has been going on for the better part of a year, and the follies show no sign of lessening.

Faced with this history, voters must not only weigh the candidates’ stances on the issues, but must also ask themselves if Rainville is competent enough to do Vermonters justice in Washington.

“Fear will keep the local systems in line. Fear of this battle station. ”

– Grand Moff Tarkin (from Star Wars…and I HOPE I didin’t really have to tell you that)

Since the Iraq War turned quickly into the Iraq Quagmire, experts (and anyone paying attention) have wondered aloud about the sustainability of the effort. Such a large force deployed for such a long time has, as James Fallows and others have put it, stretched the US Military to the “breaking point.” In response, of course, the DoD has raised the enlistment age, extended and added tours of duty, lowered recruitment standards and instituted the so-called “back-door draft” by calling up Individual Ready Reserves.

All of this, coupled with the deaths and injuries make the effort clearly unsustainable. And yet, what is the first thing we hear emanating from the neocon faithful after the start of the recent Israel-Hezbollah conflict? Why, that it’s time to finally get Syria and Iran of course. And these were hardly just the voices of the fringe. Neocon mover-and-shaker Bill Kristol said at the time:

The war against radical Islamism is likely to be a long one. Radical Islamism isn’t going away anytime soon. But it will make a big difference how strong the state sponsors, harborers, and financiers of radical Islamism are. Thus, our focus should be less on Hamas and Hezbollah, and more on their paymasters and real commanders–Syria and Iran.

And now, we are not only still hearing the same rhetoric about Iran we heard in the lead up to the Iraq invasion, there are active military movements that have led many to question whether or not we are positioning for military action.

From The Nation:

As reports circulate of a sharp debate within the White House over possible US military action against Iran and its nuclear enrichment facilities, The Nation has learned that the Bush Administration and the Pentagon have moved up the deployment of a major “strike group” of ships, including the nuclear aircraft carrier Eisenhower as well as a cruiser, destroyer, frigate, submarine escort and supply ship, to head for the Persian Gulf, just off Iran’s western coast. This information follows a report in the current issue of Time magazine, both online and in print, that a group of ships capable of mining harbors has received orders to be ready to sail for the Persian Gulf by October 1.

This possibility raises an obvious question: basically, are these folks nuts? Can they not do math? Can’t they see that we simply don’t have the military capacity to pull this stunt again, especially while still bogged down in the last adventure?

These are simplistic, dogmatic thinkers to be sure – but I don’t believe they could be that stupid. So what card do they think they can play to pull it off? A draft? It seems unlikely, as it would be politically impossible to implement, and would be inconsistent with the “shop like there’s nothing wrong” mantra of the Bushites.

So what happens when the neocons commit us to a war that can’t even be prosecuted, let alone won, even to their way of seeing?

All that’s left to fill the gap are the nukes.

It’s a topic they’ve certainly floated. Consider this report from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists:

Earlier, in 2001, the Bush administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) addressed the nuclear aspect of the issue. The review recognized the new cooperative relationship with Russia and the rising threat from the potential proliferation of WMD. The latter point was seen as particularly important, since future conflict with a number of regional powers was thought possible–North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Libya all were thought to sponsor or harbor terrorists and to have active WMD and missile programs.

The NPR presented a new U.S. strategic military doctrine intended to transform the defense establishment with the creation of a new triad, consisting of offensive strike systems (both nuclear and conventional), defenses (both active and passive), and a revitalized defense infrastructure that will provide new capabilities to meet emerging threats.

It’s likely they learned from the backlash at the time this was floated in the press that the nuclear taboo will be a tough thing to matter-of-factly toss aside, but there’s no doubt that such a nuclear arsenal has been a part of the plan since before the 9/11 attacks, and equally no doubt that it’s the clearest, simplest answer to their desire to enforce global discipline witout a conventional force to back it up. And simple is big with this crowd.

In the Cold War, nukes were a true deterrent because of the nothing-left-to-lose factor. You blow me up, I’ll take you with me – why not? To make nukes into a deterrent in the post-cold war era is a completely different ball game. You have to be able to demonstrate that you can and will use them even without a direct and immediate threat. And if you’re truly trying to enforce global discipline, you wrap it in the context of a doctrine of pre-emptive attack.

It seems possible, even likely given the last several years, that there are those in the Bush administration who actively want to put us into a situation whereby, from their way of thinking, victory can only be acheived through a nuclear strike – if not with a bombing campaign, at least with nuclear tipped artillery. To force a nuclear attack. As the Project for a New American Century has become a sort of dogma, there is little that will cause its true believers to waver in their faith. Crossing the nuclear taboo becomes necessary then, as the global discipline they mean to enforce can not be done by conventional means.

Fear is the only tool left to keep the eastern nations in line. Only with the nuclear “death star” option can their roadmap to complete, overt American hegemony be salvaged, and I don’t think that equation is lost on the likes of Kristol, Perle, Feith, Rumsfeld or Bush.

Let’s just come out and say it, shall we? It is increasingly what everyone is thinking.

According to reports, the Dubie camp only agreed to a measly five debates with Democratic Challenger Matt Dunne and Progressive Marvin Malek. Last week, he bailed on the first one. Philip at the time chalked it up to downright imperious arrogance:

The news: Brian Dubie has apparently blown off the first major debate he’s agreed to this campaign cycle, an event organized and staged by the League of Women Voters.

The analysis: This guy honestly believes he doesn’t have to campaign. Why? Because it’s good to be king.

But today brings this news from Freyne:

Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie has canceled yet another debate against his Democrat challenger Matt Dunne and Progressive Marvin Malek. This one was scheduled for 6:30 p.m. next Sunday October 22 at Sterling College in Craftsbury Common.

There’s no longer any avoiding the obvious – that Dubie is afraid.

Everyone knows he’s a lightweight who only squeaked into the office thanks to Anthony Pollina’s determination to split the left even though it was obvious to everyone that he had no chance of winning. Then last time, he exploited his incumbency in much the same way, but stuck his head out a bit more often as he knew he was facing, in Cheryl Rivers, a not-very-strong opponent.

This year he’s up against a far greater threat. Dunne is good on the stump, quick on his (verbal) feet, and has a strong field operation. He also has a good grasp of the issues, and therefore brings a significant policy toolbox with him to any debate.

But of course, Dubie is a lightweight. And this slinking in the shadows campaign of “if I just close my eyes it will all be over soon” just shows that he knows it as well as anyone. By hiding under his airplane, Dubie avoids having not only to answer questions about why he won’t release his personal finances, his out-of-the-mainstream views on abortion rights, and his tendency not to show up for the nice-paying part-time job the taxpayers have elected him to – he also avoids being in a position that allows the public to see just how little he understands about policy and far over his head he is in the Statehouse.

Still, if he had any kahunas at all, he’d stand up straight, meet his opponents in debate, and  make his case for re-election. But don’t hold your breath waiting for that.

Because he is simply a coward.

I assume all readers of GMD also read Freyne land, but just in case… it seems new-blogger Freyne is coming to terms with the problem of sock puppets. Yesterday he chose to call out a poster who is likely one of these usual suspect, GOP-campaign staffer trolls that so frequent the Vermont blogosphere. In pointing out the repeated trolling by an individual posting from the same IP address under different names, Freyne writes:

Hey, maybe his real name is “Jim” and he works in the corner office on the third floor of the Capital Plaza Hotel?  The Vermont Republican Party HQ!  Perhaps he would feel embarrassed if Freyne Land readers knew that his was the commentary of a paid, state-party official using various bogus names to hide his nastiness.

Perfectly understandable. It’s dishonest and juvenile to use various phony names to vent your bias. It’d be nice if he could cut that stuff out, eh?

Life is very short, my friend. Just be honest, be yourself, even if you are the state GOP chair or paid staff. Be brave!

.In response, he receives (and promptly posts) this from GOP chair Jim Barnett:

“I want an apology. that’s bullshit what you posted suggesting that I am blogging on your blog under a fake name.  just total crap.  I have posted exactly one blog in my life and it was under my own name in response to one of your buddies who had the nerve to insult then-Rep. Doran Metzger as a “braindead Republican” upon his departure to serve in Iraq.”

Jim Barnett
Chairman
Vermont Republican Party

This is the face of the Vermont GOP. A poorly socialized, self-indulgent frat boy with little respect for the decorum that should come with being the State Chair of a major party. Any Republican parents reading this are probably yet again wishing somebody would just send him to his room for a time out…

The Vermont Democratic Party has an online system for early voting that folks should take advantage of. First, you can now request an early ballot online through the VDP – http://www.vtdemocrats.org/earlyvote. You also can look yourself up, to see what town you are registered to vote in and who/where your clerk is and where your polling location is – http://www.wheredoivotevt.com. Finally, there’s a toll-free hotline for people to take care of their early-voting needs: 877-277-9015. I’ll try to post reminders about this over the next couple weeks.

The Vermont Guardian is beginning to publish the answers to a 10-question candidate questionaire as they come in. Topics include the Iraq War, foreign policy, immigration, education, health care, agriculture and more. Click here to check out the site (another one we’ll be returning to over the coming weeks, no doubt).

Washington County Senate Candidate Donny Osman is back on YouTube. I hope this pays off for him, as it’d sure be a great thing if this sort of thing becomes a regular element of Vermont campaigns. He takes advantage of the medium by actually getting into some issues (and in a straightforward, unscripted way). Click on the image below to view. Go Donny!

The funding of the Rainville campaign from scandal-ridden Republican power brokers in Washington only becomes clearer with ongoing revelations of a coverup from the GOP House Leadership in the Mark Foley congressional page scandal.

First, Rep John Shimkus (R-IL), head of the Congressional Page Program (who sat on the Foley concerns and did NOT inform fellow page board members of the issue). From KSDK in Illinois:

Since the scandal broke last week, there have been calls for Shimkus to be fired from his role as Chair of the House Page Program.

Shimkus says he will not be forced out by what he calls “false accusations” and “the politics of personal destruction.”

“I think we’ve improved the program,” says Shimkus.

Contributions to Martha Rainville by Shimkus’ “John S Fund”: $1000.00 (03/31/2006)

Second, Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY), chair of the NRCC. From WaPo:

With his statement, Reynolds, who is locked in a difficult reelection campaign, signaled he was unwilling to take the fall alone amid partisan attacks that were becoming increasingly vituperative. The Democratic National Committee yesterday issued a statement asking “Why Did Tom Reynolds Cover Up Congressman’s Sex Crimes?” It continued: “While the shocking [online] exchanges produced an immediate uproar that cost Congressman Foley his job, at least one member of the House Republican leadership had known about the situation for months and did nothing about it: . . . Reynolds.”

Contributions to Martha Rainville from Reynolds’ “TOMPAC”: $5000 (03/31/2006)

Do we really want our US Representative beholden to these people?

Two quick items: First, Scudder Parker is currently introducing himself to the Daily Kos crowd. His diary has made the recommended list and is drawing comments (and contributions?) from around the country. Go have a look see and drop a comment.

Second, the Caledonian (Broken) Record is currently running an online poll for US Congress. This is the flagship paper of the angry right in Vermont, so it’s not Peter Welch’s crowd. Nevertheless, he is holding his own and is only a bit behind Martha Rainville (224 to 198) at posting time. Go help him out with a vote, and spread the word. [UPDATE: When I posted this, Rainville was around 30 points up in the online poll, and I now wake up to Welch being almost 50 points up….nice work folks. Keep it coming – this poll is up for an unspecified amount of this whole week (wonder if they’ll pull it the second Rainville gets ahead again, if that even happens)]

Rep. Rahm Emanuel, former Clinton staffer and head of the DCCC just can’t let an opportunity go by without insulting or smearing Howard Dean. Never mind that we’re less than four weeks from Election Day and petty infighting and backstabbing is even less appropriate now than it is in general. It sticks in his ego so badly that Dean’s “50 state strategy” has the support of the Dem rank-and-file that he doesn’t even bother pretending to contain his infantile petulance. What a prick. Click here to give him a piece of your mind.

So, the Vermont media is definitely working on what Freyne is now calling “porngate” – that is, the allegations that Martha Rainville covered up an illegal porno film made by Guard members (including, possibly some high-profile names?). How do I know? Cause I got a call today from a member of our local fourth estate to ask me about a rumor that’s been circulating that I have a copy of the..er, “piece”… myself. For the record I don’t… but I’m not sure what to think about this rumor that I do… (“Hey, ya hear about this Guard porno tape? Yeah, I bet ODUM’s got a copy..”). FYI: If you haven’t yet, click the link above and check out Freyne’s transcript of the Rainville press conference where she was grilled on this. She doesn’t hold up too well…

The cover story of this week’s Seven Days, concerning the limited (but not insignificant) Defense Department contracts brought into Vermont by Senator Patrick Leahy is a truly interesting, fair, and thought-provoking read. Do we want those contracts? What about the jobs they create? Is there a difference between the contracts for making body armor and mobile hospitals vs missiles? It’s fuzzy enough that even the Progressive quoted, Rep. Winston Dowland in the Northeast Kingdom says:

“I don’t agree with this war, but I agree that we need to keep buying this stuff,” Dowland says. “People are just interested in making a living and trying to feed their families.”

I’m still working out my feelings on the whole business (besides the general queasiness), but I’d be very curious to hear the views of others. Please post away…

…and the day after I start ads on the site, Baruth comes out with an indictment of national liberal blogs with corporate ads run amok. Yeesh. Great timing, Philip. Thanks for that. Just to make GMD look worse, this dynamic google-ad-thing that I have on my site has stuck up ads for John McCain and George Allen! Hyarrrrgh!! Tell you what – it’s part of the user agreement that I promise not to explicitly encourage people to click on any ads…but they didn’t say anything about explicitly encouraging them to avoid an ad like the plague. Please don’t click on Republican ads. There was also a Hillary Clinton one – that one I’ll (shudder) leave to your better judgment, gentle readers… but I don’t wanna know if you go there, deal?