All posts by BP

Donald “wags the dog”: rates low in historical context…sad

International, National, ,

After President Trump abruptly changed his policy against intervention and  fired 59 Tomahawk missiles (roughly $1 million each) at Syria, there was speculation that he was interested not so much in red lines that Assad may have crossed but more with lines his own waning popularity crossed. Many observers figured Donald was “wagging the dog” – distracting attention and changing the subject away from his intensely troubled first few weeks in office.  Politico.com wondered, as many other publications did: It is hard to avoid wondering whether the purpose of the strikes was less to defend a red line that Trump had never supported than yet another effort by the president to distract the media’s attention and change the subject from his problems at home.

TrumpedDiversion may or may not have been Trump’s motive but if it was, it seems to have failed in one regard. A new Gallup poll shows : US Support for Syria Strikes Rates Low in Historical Context – Americans’ opinion of U.S. missile strikes in Syria: 41% disapprove and 50% approve.

  • Ten other military actions assessed since 1983 had majority support
  • Only action with lower approval was Libya in 2011, at 47%

The GOP loved it though: 82% of Republicans approve, compared with 33% of Democrats. A divide such as this along partisan lines is new. Intervention by President Obama in Libya 2011 and Syria 2014 showed no such partisan divide at the time they were polled.

Gallup summarized the current finding:

Americans’ initial reaction to the missile airstrikes the U.S. launched against Syria last week is among the least positive of the 12 military actions Gallup has measured since 1983. Support does exceed opposition, which has been the case for each of the military actions tested, but the 50% approval is lower than all but one of the other interventions.

The strikes do not appear to have affected Americans’ views of Trump — at least in the short term. His job approval averaged 40% Tuesday through Thursday before the strikes, and has averaged 40% Friday through Sunday after the strikes.

If the Trump administration had hoped to change the subject and rally support, well Donald’s dog wouldn’t be wagged… this time.

Is California’s new EB-5 scandal more scandalous than ours?

International, National, , , ,

Vermont’s massive EB-5 scandal at Jay Peak broke about a year ago, and it isn’t the only federal investments-for-visas program that may be riddled with fraud. But the latest EB-5 scandal involves international politics, foreign fugitives and even a Trump cameo.fraudawards

The FBI in California raided offices, a townhouse and home associated with The California Investment Immigration Fund alleged to be involved in a substantial EB-5 investment company fraud. The company solicits EB-5 funds mostly from Chinese investors. And the majority of all U.S. EB-5 funds come from Chinese citizens.

Interestingly the FBI raids took place on Saturday while president Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping were meeting in Florida at Donald’s ersatz palace.

The FBI raids, […] were focused on California Investment Immigration Fund (CIIF), a business allegedly connected to abuses of the controversial EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program that has in recent years fueled a high-end US residential boom and has been widely used by developers including the president’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner.

Since 2008 attorney Victoria Chan, her father Tat Chan, and Fang Zeng harvested $50 million from more than 100 Chinese investors for CIIF and related companies.

[…] instead of legitimately investing the funds into US businesses, the trio either refunded the funds to the EB-5 investors while their petitions were pending in a way to solicit investors, or stole millions of dollars to use for personal expenditures, including buying million-dollar houses

That list of allegations should sound familiar to anyone who followed the exploits of Jay Peak partners Stenger and Quiros. But as often happens California goes one better because this fraud may involve three fugitives from China – on their most-wanted list – illegally obtaining U.S. green cards.

According to China Daily, among CIIF’s investment green card clients found on the fugitive list are Xu Jin (No. 13) and his wife Liu Fang (No.66). In China they are both accused of embezzlement, accepting bribes, and abuse of power, for which the maximum penalty is death. A third is identified only by the initials “K.L.,” and no crimes the mysterious unnamed fugitive may have committed in China are included.

Not to downplay  Stenger and Qurios’ alleged EB-5 fraud at Jay Peak, but strictly in terms of staging and dramatic casting, California’s EB-5 scandal may outclass ours – Vermont just can’t match the international intrigue or top cameo performances by the Trump family.

Kushner hires horror film PR man for White House job

International, National, , ,

It was only three days ago that Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, made his first hire, PR man Josh Raffel, for the White House’s new Office of American Innovation. The OAI is being described as “a SWAT team of strategic consultants” which will, the White House says, be given “sweeping authority to overhaul the federal bureaucracy.” PR man Josh Raffel once did PR work for the Kushner family and Glenn Beck. Prior to joining the Kushner’s ‘SWAT” team Raffel was an executive managing the publicity for Blumhouse Productions — a horror movie producer. One recent horror film — The Purge: Election Year — featured posters with the tagline Keep America Great.purgekushnerGMD

Kushner’s long list of high-level jobs he performs for his father-in-law president include foreign-policy trouble-shooting: US/Mexican border issues (the WALL); Chinese relations; and Mid-East peace negotiating. Domestically he is tasked with addressing opioid addiction and veterans affairs, just to name two areas of responsibility.

Last week Kushner, along with Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made a quickie visit to troops in Iraq. Security protocols were violated when officials at the White House confirmed the trip before Jared and his entourage had landed in the war-torn country.kushneratwar 2

Once he was  in Iraq, images made available of Kushner wearing stylish Ray-bans, a nicely cut blue blazer, pressed button-down shirt, and a personalized bullet-proof vest began to draw widespread derision. Twitter online comments include From Here to Fraternity and The Funds of Navarone, and the one which gets my vote for being both funny and truthful: Saving Private Equity.

The newly hired PR wizard may want to start on his new boss Kushner’s image. After all, Raffel has experience in selling cheap horror shows to the public ; the difference now is he’ll have a virtually unlimited budget: think of the potential for special effects!

International Fact-Checking Day is the 2nd of April

Business, National, ,

Yes, you read that right, April 2nd — the day we waited all year for! A day Donald Trump dreads like a vampire fears the daylight. International Fact-Checking Day is promoted by the International Fact-Checking Network at Poynter in partnership with fact-checking organizations around the world.tweetsource3

Follow their link to find a bunch of real resources including lesson plans, the IF-CD fake news trivia quiz and other activities including the always popular “hoax-off.” So check out the top debunked claims of the year.

International Fact-Checking Day is not a single event but a rallying cry for more facts — and fact-checking — in politics, journalism, and everyday life.

 

VTGOP’ers vow: “won’t be fooled again”

local/regional, , , , ,

Well, a group of GOP legislators in Vermont have vowed not to fall prey to April fool pranks again this year. Last year, as some readers may recall, five VTGOP legislators (two state representatives from the NEK, one from Orange County and two state senators from the Rutland area) in 2016 were readily taken in by legislative satire found on a popular Vermont-based online humor site.cowsoutdoors3

The April 1st 2016 news “report” was about Vermont legislation under consideration in Vermont House and Senate committees which, if enacted, supposedly would have mandated (under penalty of fines) the number of daylight hours a dairy cow could legally spend “indoors.” The “legislation” was said to list appropriate outside facilities for the dairy herd leisure activities. Suggested activities were defined — but to avoid any undue burden, farmers were not required to be in compliance. All that in bill VT H. 4/1/16: the imaginary “Dairy Cow Outdoor Leisure Act”

The proposed law, the story claimed, was inspired by scientific research completed at a major university: [The study] measured how much work dairy cows will do to access pasture, by pushing on a weighted gate. The cows worked hard to access pasture, especially at night. As a comparison, the researchers also measured how much weight the cows would push to access their regular feed when kept indoors; cows worked just as hard to go outside as they did to access fresh feed when they were hungry.

cowsthatagain

In summary: “[…] cows are highly motivated to be outside” said professor Marina von Keyserlingk, lead author of the study.

Well, back in 2016 some conservative anti-regulation GOP lawmakers didn’t take time to notice the date — April 1. As a group the five, quick to react and soon to be embarrassed state senators and reps, took action. They composed a protest letter.

The letter, dated the next day [!] was sent to the committee chairs in both houses they believed were handling the legislation — and more incredibly, it was released to news outlets. It read in part:  “We’re talking about unchecked regulatory aggression. There is scant evidence to substantiate the legislation, and we are skeptical  of the assertion that dairy cows desire leisure time.” They railed against faulty and unproven science.

And the letter closed with this: “No matter what, we wish to make one thing understood; whatever it is, we’re against it. Even if you change or condensed it, we remain against it — any committee version of the bill.” 

Fast forward to 2017: the gullible gang of Republicans have said that should there ever be any effort to mandate leisure time for dairy cows, they would naturally be opposed — after double-checking the date. Lesson learned?

Trump approval still low

National, ,

Trumpfeatsfail 2Gallup’s recent daily tracking poll of 1,500 adults shows Donald Trump’s steadily declining approval rating. He recently hit a new low of only 37% of respondents who approve of the job he is doing as president. And more than half (58%) disapprove.

Among independents his support continues to fall, but among all those falling numbers, Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum points out Trump continues popular with GOP base. In fact Trump’s support at this point in his presidency is pretty much the same as  what Reagan and Bush Sr. and Bush Jr.  were with the GOP base. From his early high with the base Trump is now down to near 90% approval among Republicans

TrumpisGOP

But Donald my be about to mess that up. Trump recently took to his twitter machine to attack specific members of the Freedom Caucus, in part blaming them for his healthcare bill’s embarrassing loss in the House. The buck stops everywhere except but with Trump.

Gov. Scott: Calling FairPoint for Department of Human Resources Commissioner

Business, local/regional, , ,

It is fair to say Governor Phil Scott often makes the point that state government should be managed like a business. So it’s hardly surprising Scott announced that FairPoint Communication executive Beth Fastiggi will be his Department of Human Resources Commissioner.  Fastiggi held a number of posts at FairPoint Communications in her 30-year career there.philsonaphone4

I wonder though — considering some of FairPoint’s history in Vermont — Scott might have been tempted to make this announcement on a Friday — late in the day Friday.

FairPoint, which took over Verizon’s land line business in Vermont, has reached out and touched most Vermonters over the years — and not in a good way. Here, and for that matter in all of New England, the company has a long history of poor quality service, bankruptcy, and troubled labor relations. At certain key moments it seems Vermont has been there with helping hand$.

In recent years a variety hefty fines for consistently poor quality of service were imposed by the State of Vermont Public Service on FairPoint. And then, the VPSB waived millions of dollars in accumulated poor service related penalties for the company. The agreement, part of a restructuring plan, allowed $7 million in assessed unpaid penalties to be redirected by FairPoint for statewide broadband build-out.

The relationship between FairPoint and its union employees has been marked by mistrust. For 131 days from October 2014 to February 2015 almost 2,000 FairPoint union employees were on strike over newly imposed rounds of wage and benefit cuts.

Shortly after the strike began, and despite ongoing issues surrounding quality of service, Vermont awarded FairPoint a lucrative contract to manage Vermont’s 911 emergency communications service. Who ever would have guessed that outages and problems would now be plaguing the emergency 911 system?

In the DHS appointment press release Governor Scott says: “Beth is a highly respected business leader who will be a great asset and public servant for the state.”

So let’s see then, FairPoint Comunications squeezed concessions out of union members, provided poor service, got concessions on state-imposed fines and landed a valuable state 911 contract while in bankruptcy — in the middle of a labor strike .

So how does that management skill set connect to the Department of Human Resources Phil? Not too results oriented, eh?

Schumer and the filibuster bomb

National, ,
GorsuchYBook
1988 Columbia University yearbook entry for Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch

The Senate will vote on Supreme Court Nominee Neil Gorsuch sometime in early April and last week Democratic Minority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer uttered the “f” word…filibuster.

Senator Schumer urged all Democrats to take a stand against Donald Trump’s nominee Judge Neil Gorsuch and vote ‘no’. He’s the Heritage Foundation’s certified 100% approved conservative nominee (age 49 yrs), up for a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court. “He would be a fine successor to Scalia,” they say.

Sixty votes are required to bring the vote for Gorsuch out of committee and to the floor, which means Republicans will need eight Democratic votes to join their 52.  If Democrats can stay together it will prevent the vote from getting to the floor. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has threatened — and has the Republican votes — to “go nuclear” and change Senate rules to eliminate the filibuster, thus working around Democrats filibuster block. That is quite a move for McConnell, who successfully stonewalled President Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland. Democratic Minority Leader Schumer argues: “If the nominee can’t get 60 votes, you don’t change the rules, you change the candidate.”

The Hill.com’s partial list shows votes for 23 of the Democratic Senators (as of March 25th) and includes their brief explanations for their choices. Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse explained his vote ‘no’ was because: he was not convinced that Gorsuch wouldn’t “pick up where Justice Scalia and his troop left off,” by issuing rulings — such as on campaign finance — that benefit Republicans. There are — for now at least — no Democratic ‘Yes’ votes, 13 ‘No’ votes and 11 undecided votes on whether to confirm Gorsuch.yesnoundecidedSenator Sanders is listed as a ‘no’ vote for confirming. Bernie is an Independent (as we all know) but caucuses with Democrats so he is on the list. And as of Monday the 27th reports are that Senator Leahy will also vote ‘no’  to confirm: ” Philosophically, I’ve seen nothing that will bring me to vote for Gorsuch.” He did ad this: “I am not inclined to filibuster, even though I’m not inclined to vote for him.”

A handful of Democratic Senators from states that favored Trump last November are worried about their next election and are considered the weak link in Schumer’s vote strategy.

Vermont, not surprisingly, seems kinda blue on this vote. So, maybe the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee could,  you know, offer those red-state Dems a little help come the next election if they agree to vote with their party?

Could Vermont’s EB-5 Regional Center wither away?

local/regional, National, , , , ,

Of course it’s hard to match the impact of the original headlines from Stenger & Quiros’ Jay Peak EB-5 scandal — but two resulting events, largely unnoticed by comparison, will soon impact Vermont’s EB-5 Regional Center.

buriedEB5 3The first change was set underway when, to prevent future “Ponzi-style” EB-5 scandals, Vermont shifted financial oversight responsibility from the Agency of Commerce and Community Development (ACCD)  to the Department of Financial Regulation (DFR). The focus jumped from wooing overseas investors with almost full-time EB-5 boosterism to tightening up financial oversight.

Along with this shift came legislative adjustments allowing the DFR to control charges and enact new fees for those participants in the Vermont EB-5 Regional Center. Additionally the DFR was given authority to invoice EB-5 developers for its oversight and regulation. Moves were also made to rein in the ACCD’s taxpayer support for advertising, out-of-state  travel, and other promotional work through the Regional Center on behalf of EB-5 developers.

And recently Peak Resorts /Mt. Snow surprised top state officials  by announcing the formation of their own independent EB-5 center. The resort had to struggle with waiting on a payment for an ongoing project from their EB-5 investor funds held in escrow by the state as a guarantee.

By setting up their own EB-5 program, the out-of-state resort owners can happily gather-up their foreign funds through the investment-for-visa immigration program, independent of the Vermont-run EB-5 Regional Center with whom they formerly were partnered.

In fact, Mt. Snow Resorts probably has an inside track on this approach, should it become a trend for other EB-5 developers here in Vermont. In 2015 they hired the director of the Vermont EB-5 Regional Center — grabbing Brent Raymond directly out of the revolving door. As director, Raymond’s duties for the state included both promotional activities and monitoring EB-5 program compliance under state and federal financial regulations. Quite the catch.

So, the Jay Peak financial scandal has forced Vermont’s Regional Center EB-5 Program to change their regulatory responsibilities and funding — and perhaps most importantly, the state-run monopoly on EB-5 regulation and oversight is now threatened. It might even spell extinction rather than evolution for the Vermont ACCD’s Regional Center.

However, here and nationally, independent EB-5 foreign investment-for-visa programs are bound to stick around. Even in the midst of the new President’s immigration crackdowns, access to large chunks of quickly attainable legal foreign investment money is tough for any developer to deny themselves. You could even say it is almost impossible to resist — one New York finance broker said the EB-5 immigrant money racket was so good “[It] sounds like legalized crack cocaine.”

After all, even Donald Trump is tapping EB-5 funds for one or more of his gang’s projects. If it’s good for the President, it must be good for the country, right? … Right? … Amiright?

Expanding Medicaid equals more voter participation

National, ,

A recent study of voter participation shows higher voter turnout in states that have expanded Medicaid under the American Affordable Care Act (ACA / Obamacare). For people with low income, Medicaid is the largest source of funding for medical and health-related services.Kaiser Health-14-2016

The study, Expanding Medicaid, expanding the electorate: the Affordable Care Act’s short-term impact on political participation, compared voter turnout data from 2014 and 2012 for 435 U.S. House races.  Controlling for local factors, its author found:  […] that increases in Medicaid enrollment as a result of Medicaid expansion were related to considerably higher voter turnout in 2014.

Past research has shown people that receive public assistance are less likely to vote, so these results are significant. According to study author Jake Haselswerdt, assistant professor of political science and public affairs at the University of Missouri: “Having access to health insurance could play a role in increasing voter participation as healthy people are much more likely to vote than unhealthy people, and insurance increases people’s financial stability, which also makes them more likely to vote.” Backlash to expanded enrollment, he notes, may also affect voter turnout.

[Updated Ed.]Although Donald Trump made campaign promises not to cut Medicaid benefits, [Trump has ] endorsed two changes to the bill affecting Medicaid, under the pending GOP plan. The actions taken by GOP legislators in Congress make plain how they feel about Medicaid. Republican-sponsored ACA repeal legislation (Trumpcare) now in Congressional committees would hand Medicaid back to the states, and cut program funds by $880 billion in the next 10 years —  effectively limiting expansion. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that under the GOP bill 14 million fewer people would have Medicaid coverage in 2026.

Whether by design or accident, the GOP’s efforts to slash Medicaid may not only hurt the health of lower income  U.S. citizens, but they also seem to fit in nicely with the Republicans’  long running campaigns to suppress voter participation — also known as “voter fraud prevention legislation.”

Well, that works: “American Health Care” that isn’t affordable, and laws to counteract non-existent “voter fraud.” Paging George Orwell …