Breaking: pre-election poll results

Just a quick note here, because today's news brings something I wasn't really expecting: results of a survey before next Tuesday's primary. I was just talking about this with a friend this morning, and we agreed that they wouldn't do a poll and release it a week before the primary, but obviously we were wrong.

The headline is that the incumbents still have the advantage, and in the one contested primary Bill Sorrell still holds a comfortable lead,  44%-24%, over TJ Donovan.

If you look at the internals, though, you learn something more: that lead comes from a grand total of  223 registered voters. That's right, registered voters, not likely voters.

This is going to be a light turnout election, though, which means that GOTV is going to play a big role in what happens. Bill Sorrell is touting the results of this new poll, as well he might. On the other hand, the test next Tuesday is likely to come down to who has the better organization on the ground, and from here it seems that Donovan has the edge on organization.

We'll see soon enough.

3 thoughts on “Breaking: pre-election poll results

  1. which will, hopefully, motivate folks to make the effort to vote in the primary…which, after all, requires really very little effort at that!

  2. If you look at the internals, though, you learn something more: that lead comes from a grand total of  223 registered voters. That’s right, registered voters, not likely voters.

    Thanks for the heads up!

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