In Vermont, there is an issue that has little middle ground: the aging nuclear plant in Vernon, Vermont Yankee. Often people are either for its continuted operation, or against it. The Governor-Elect, Peter Shumlin, has stated time and time again that he is against it operating beyong 2012. This is an admirable position, given that Vermont Yankee has a serious leak for what seems like every month that 2010 has been a year. There is only one problem with this issue: Where are we going to get the 600-or-so megawatts (mw) that Entergy’s Vermont Yankee plant produces?

First off, let’s pretend that NIMBYs don’t exist (not that I have anything against them) and that we all have consensus on using existing wind and hydroelectric structures to avoid throwing windmills on Mount Mansfield or Camel’s Hump or a line of turbines from Quebec to Massachusetts. Work with me here, let’s play pretend.

Now that that’s settled, by 2013 we will likely be without a plant that generates 605mw of power, and according to this report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), during summer peak hours Vermont uses around 1,127mw of power. So for the summer months (which are getting hotter lately, but that’s another topic), Vermont will have a deficit of power in the 500mw-600mw range. One concern I have is, can we make up that deficit with alternative energies instead of buying back into the larger New England energy market? It’s possible. Vermont, per capita pays 15.27 cents per kilowatthour, while our neighbors in New Hampshire, Massachusetts and New York pay 16.11, 14.71, and 19.58, respectively. I wouldn’t consider New York as a reasonable example to where Vermont could go concerning costs, given that there are a lot of separate factors in New York that raise the price that Vermont just doesn’t have to deal with.

So, much like a budget shortfall, there could be a 600mw energy deficit. Let’s look at the energy potential of solar, wind, and hydro:

For solar and wind, the potential is muted. but caps out before 100mw (I’m rushing this before work, so I’ll find the math again later with links). But with it solar and wind, there is more of a possibility that an individual could themself be an energy producer. That’s not to say that there aren’t projects out there today. There are scattered wind projects and impressive solar projects like Green Mountain Power’s “10,000 panels in 1,000 days”. These projects make me pretty hopeful that utility companies in Vermont know what’s up for Vermont’s future.

Hydroelectric power for Vermont is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. This PDF file lists 45 towns with dams that have a hydro potential. If used at an average capacity, Vermont could have up to 527mw replaced by hydroelectric dams in existence today. (The stat comes from this powerpoint that UVM hosts, I’ll admit that it’s not a strong piece of evidence.) Unfortunately, Vermont allowed the sale of several dams back in the mid-2000s to TransCanada, which is now fighting the estimated value of the dams.

So, are we going to buy into the larger New England market, or are we going to be the leader we know we can be in alternative energy?

I rushed this too much.