It’s hard to make predictions in Vermont because there’s so little data, and such a small population base can turn unexpectedly. Having said that, I’m expecting a good night for Dems, although there’s no question there’s going to be drama. With all the appropriate grains of salt and disclaimers that I really don’t know, here’s what I’m gonna throw out there. This way you can make fun of me when I’m wrong:
US Senate: Leahy 65%, Britton 32%, Others 3%
US House: Welch 61%, Beaudry 38%, Others 1%
Governor: Shumlin 49%, Dubie 47%, Others 4%
Lt. Governor: Scott 52%, Howard 45%, Others 3%
Secretary of State: Condos 51%, Gibbs 49%
Auditor: Hoffer 50%, Salmon 50% (Going out on a limb a bit here, but I’ll definitely disagree strongly with Totten that the last minute release of the DUI video hurt Hoffer. No way. Maybe it stung among the 5% of the electorate at best that has been really following this race, but 95% of voters just don’t follow the auditors race, and “DUI” has now been repeated enough, it’s going to neutralize name recognition. I think Hoffer takes it in the end.)
Gov/
Shumlin WINS (decided in GA): 48.5%
Dubie: 47.0%
Denis Steel: 2.3%
Cris Ericson (wins the nut job award) 1.3% (because of the “pot” motif)
Liberty Union: 0.4%
Dan Feliciano: 0.5%
Em Peyton : 0.2%
Shumlin wins General Assembly Vote
Lt Gov
Scott Wins (Big)
Sec of State
Condos Wins
Treasurer
Spalding (obviously wins)
Progs get over 6%
Liberty Union 2%
Auditor
Hoffer wins
Levy of Liberty Union gets 3.4%
At General
Sorel
Charlette Dennet gets 5.7%
US Senate
Pat with 66%
Dan Frileck gets a lower percentage then he did in the primary
Wash County Senate (in this order)
Cummings
Pollina
Doyle
(Osmon a very very distant 4th)
Senate: Leahy 67%, Britton 31%, Others 2%
House: Welch 63%, Beaudry 36%, Others 1%
Governor: Shumlin 50.5%, Dubie 47.5%, Others 2%
Lt. Governor: Scott 55%, Howard 43%, Others 2%
Sec of State: Condos 52%, Gibbs 48%
Auditor: Hoffer 51.5%, Salmon 48.5%
Wildcard prediction: Windham Senate: White and Cooke
Nationally, my wildcard is Reid winning in Nevada.
I predict a total of 52 Senate seats for Democrats once it’s all said and done, with the house split 217 Democrats, 219 Republicans.
I also predict that whatever the results, the headlines will boil down to “bad news for Democrats heading into 2012,” even if we hold both house and Senate.
This morning anyone voting at the Colchester High School was treated to the A-Team of Vermont politics. A tweet that noted that Peter Shumlin was at the polling place drew me to lend some support to the candidate and I was surprised to see Dick Mazza at his side also lending support… Good on you Dick!!!!
The shock was to see Governor Jim=jobloss Douglas hanging around also, with I THINK the Virginia campaign staff in the background, but NO BRIAN DUBIE??? About 10 minutes after I arrived GovD turned around and wondered aloud where his candidate was, only to have him appear a little later looking a little like he overslept…
Turn out was pretty strong and the importance of Colchester in the Chittenden County race was noted.
Senate: Leahy 68%, Britton 31%, Others 1%
House: Welch 62%, Beaudry 37%, Others 1%
Governor: Shumlin 51%, Dubie 47%, Others 2%
Lt. Governor: Scott 56%, Howard 42%, Others 2%
Secretary of State: Gibbs 52%, Condos 48%
Auditor: Hoffer 50%, Salmon 49&%, Others 1%
Gov: Shumlin: 51% Dubie: 47% Other: 2%
Lt. Gov: Scott: 57% Howard: 40% Other: 3%
Sec. of State: Condos: 54% Gibbs: 45% Other: 1%
Auditor: Hoffer: 52% Salmon: 47% Other: 1%
257 people had voted in Monkton by 8:10 am.
We only have 2000 or so people in the town.
If turnout is big- don’t they usually say that is greeeeat for Dems?
Shumlin 49
Dubie 46
Others 5
Shumlin 52% Dubie 46%
Scott 53% Howard 45%
Leahy 67% Britton 30%
Welch 65% Beaudry 32%
Condos 51% Gibbs 49%
Hoffer wins by less than 1000 votes
I think some of you are being way too generous to Beaudry, Welch will even take Franklin county by at least 60%+
Here are mine.
US Senate: Leahy 68%, Britton 30%, Others 2%
US House: Welch 65%, Beaudry 34%, Others 1%
Governor: Shumlin 51.5%, Dubie 47.5%, others 1%
Lt. Governor: can’t predict this one. Just not sure, but I am rooting for Steve!
Secretary of State: Condos 51%, Gibbs 49%
Auditor: Hoffer 52%, Salmon 48%
Senate: Leahy 69%, Britton 28%, Others 3%
House: Welch 63%, Beaudry 36%, Others 1%
Governor: Shumlin 51%, Dubie 47%, Others 2%
Lt. Governor: Scott 53%, Howard 45%, Others 2%
Secretary of State: Condos 51%, Gibbs 49%
Auditor: Hoffer 53%, Salmon 46&%, Others 1%
I think turnout among democrats is going to be higher than expected, and will result in slight shifts in their favor vs the other predictions in the thread. I wish it would be enough to push Howard over the threshold….
US Senate: Leahy 64, Britton and others 36 – Freilich gets fewer votes in the general than in the D primary
US House: Welch 67, Beaudry and others 33
Governor: Shumlin 50.5, Dubie 49.2, others 1.3
Lt Gov: Scott 55, Howard and others 45
Secretary of State: Gibbs 51, Condos 49 – Jim Douglas’ robocalls and radio ads put Gibbs over the top
Auditor: Hoffer 51.5, Salmon 48.5
Attorney General: Sorrell re-elected, Dennett gets more than 5% and keeps Progs as major party for 2012 cycle
Turnout: 270,000 – about 60% of registered voters
Oops! I made a mathematical error for governor – corrected numbers below
US Senate: Leahy 64, Britton and others 36 – Freilich gets fewer votes in the general than in the D primary
US House: Welch 67, Beaudry and others 33
Governor: Shumlin 50.5, Dubie 48.2, others 1.3
Lt Gov: Scott 55, Howard and others 45
Secretary of State: Gibbs 51, Condos 49 – Jim Douglas’ robocalls and radio ads put Gibbs over the top
Auditor: Hoffer 51.5, Salmon 48.5
Attorney General: Sorrell re-elected, Dennett gets more than 5% and keeps Progs as major party for 2012 cycle
Turnout: 270,000 – about 60% of registered voters
…and therefore perhaps having a different perspective on the often overlooked importance of Rutland’s votes, I’m going to predict Steve Howard wins with 51%.
First, you’re all too generous to Beaudry. He’s a friggin’ teabagger, fer Chrissakes.
I think Shumlin will squeak in there.
Only two things I’m certain about…
Harrington and Larson will not be the next senators in Washington County, and Dennis Steele won’t even get 5%, and that’s being VERY generous.
I don’t normally do predictions, but:
Shumlin over Dubie, 51-47
Scott defeats HOWARd
Condos defeats Gibbs
Hoffer defeats Salmon
D’s make a net pickup of one in the Senate, for a 24-6 split.