Why are Obama’s approval numbers slipping? It’s VDB’s fault.

Barack Obama’s approval ratings took another slide last week in a Washington Post/ABC poll, but what analysts are starting to notice is that the downturn isn’t simply from independents, or people who think he isn’t Republican enough – he’s starting to lose approval from the left. Via Sargent:

The numbers tell the story: In three key cases where Obama has dropped significantly, he’s also dropped by sizable margins among Dems and liberals. Let’s take the major findings driving the discussion today, and compare them with his drop among Dems and libs:

* The WaPo poll found that “49 percent now express confidence that Obama will make the right decisions for the country, down from 60 percent at the 100-day mark in his presidency.”

On that question, among liberals, Obama has dropped a surprising 12 points, from 90% to 78%, in the same time period. Among Dems, he’s dropped eight points, from 90% to 82%.

Research 2000 polling for Daily Kos found similar results.

Paul Krugman’s related, widely-discussed op-ed suggests that health care is the catalyst for an explosion of progressive frustration with an administration that increasingly looks at its campaign rhetoric as expendable:

A backlash in the progressive base – which pushed President Obama over the top in the Democratic primary and played a major role in his general election victory – has been building for months. The fight over the public option involves real policy substance, but it’s also a proxy for broader questions about the president’s priorities and overall approach.

[…] On the issue of health care itself, the inspiring figure progressives thought they had elected comes across, far too often, as a dry technocrat… Meanwhile, on such fraught questions as torture and indefinite detention, the president has dismayed progressives with his reluctance to challenge or change Bush administration policy.

[…] So there’s a growing sense among progressives that they have, as my colleague Frank Rich suggests, been punked.

But you know how I really know this is getting serious? Here’s Baruth, whose August 16th piece is entitled “Obama Clearly Bagging Public Option; VDB Predicts Approval Rating Below 50% By Late September, And It’ll Be Very Well Deserved”:

Clearly the White House would like to signal that the battle on the Public Option has been fought and lost. Obama, Durbin, Sebelius, all of the Administration’s key health care types have moved publicly to the extremely minimal notion that anything that increases competition and coverage is Good. Anything at all. Which, we suppose, is Change, of an impoverished sort. But not Change We Can Believe In.

Philip was one of the earliest and strongest of Obama supporters. More than simply being supportive, he has (in my opinion) been drawn to the Obama phenomenon as a narrative (hey, he’s a novelist) – and its a compelling one on many levels. As such, this is a guy willing to give Obama a lot of slack.

Shorter version; if Baruth is pissed at Obama, our President has really started pushing his luck with the left.