It’s March. The election is in eight months. That’s about 36 weeks. This from vtbuzz:
I’m sure many politically tuned-in Vermonters are surprised that we are sitting here in March without a known Democratic candidate for governor, but it indeed we are…
…What should the good voters of Vermont make of that? “You’re to make nothing of it,” Vermont Democratic Party Chairman Ian Carleton said.
I’m not sure who Carleton is talking to here. If his statement is a directive, he knows as well as anyone that rank and file Dems do not take directives well. If it’s simply face-saving rhetoric, a no comment would be better, as we’re rapidly entering the world of self-parody.
We’re past the point where the suggestion that concern – even panic – over the lack of clear candidates for the top two slots is somehow only for the small handful of political insiders or hobbyists, and that the greater population doesn’t care. First of all, that’s not true anymore, as I’m hearing the question from an ever-widening range of people.
Second (and most important), it has been going on long enough to begin setting in as a narrative among one subset of Vermonters that truly matter in this process – the press. Today’s media doesn’t bother with the pretense of not having opinions. They embrace opinions – wallow in them, really – so long as those opinions can’t be pegged as “partisan.” And the Democratic Party is flirting with a “keystone kops” narrative among the media that will dog them throughout the campaign season if something doesn’t change soon.
Some argue that none of this should be discussed without also discussing the lack of a GOP candidate against Peter Welch. That discussing the gubernatorial – and now the lieutenant gubernatorial – race, without discussing that lack is somehow engaging in a double standard. Not so.
Truth to tell, the Dems should dread the day when they are spoken of together. The fact is, the Vermont GOP looks like a disaster. Dems solidly have the House, the Senate, and 7 out of 9 statewide offices, if you count Bernie Sanders. The Republican Party in this state has, under its previous Chair Jim Barnett, all but abandoned the local races in it’s myopic focus on the re-election of Douglas, and as a passing thought, Dubie and the occasional other statewide race. As a result, it maintains little resemblance to a functioning major party.
The fact is that people aren’t talking about the GOP lack of a candidate, because – well, what do you expect? Try a free association test: see how many Vermont Dems you can name in a few seconds that could be competitive against Jim Douglas. You know the list; Leahy, Welch, Markowitz, Spaulding, Sorrell, Racine, Shumlin, Symington. Those are the easy ones. The ones that would make it a battle royal. You may have easily come up with others.
Now try the same game with Republicans versus Welch.
Crickets, right?
I mean, you have to really reach for any names at all – Brock? Walt Freed (remember him?) Skip Vallee, for pities sake?
Dems should stop complaining about the hand wringing over Governor. The fact is, people expect more from what otherwise looks like a healthy political party. The task now is to show them that they should.
And the task for us? Clearly, the time is coming to force a reaction. If Galbraith is to be the candidate, it’s time to shake him from what is clearly a subjective certainty that he has plenty of time until it becomes necessary to announce. One assumes that this assumption is based on an electoral clock nearly 30 years out of date. If he is to be a candidate – and a viable one – he needs to be capable of losing dyed-in-the-wool preconceptions that are no longer reflective of reality. Now is the time. Many months ago was the time. For my part, I have allowed him some leeway because of recent history. Galbraith told me, as he has told many others, that, during their 2007 meeting, Pollina told him that he would opt NOT to run for Governor if Galbraith did indeed get in the race.
In January, he apparently contacted Pollina again to both indicate he was moving towards a run and to re-confirm this verbal agreement. Pollina apparently informed him that he had, er, changed his mind.
For that reason, I’ve been loath to rush the Ambassador, given the seismic shift in the likely makeup of the arena. But the grace period is clearly over.
As far as Lieutenant Governor goes, Jim Condos has flirted with interest, as reported here. There is attempted recruitment behind the scenes, but again – it’s unclear at this point as to whether anyone is really serious. And it’s way past time for seriousness.
Boy, do we need some seriousness.
I think it’s safe to assume that Galbraith is in this thing. But he needs to truly get in this thing. If he’s not in it… well, whatever. I’m rapidly losing faith that there’s any real shot at taking out Douglas, given the totality of the tableau before us. A real shame given Douglas’s softness between the polling lines.
Lieutenant Governor? That’s more complicated, and in a Democratic wave year, Dubie is also vulnerable – especially given his do-nothing reputation. My sense is that, by a date certain, if there still is no sign of a candidate, we at the netroots should threaten to run a candidate, leaving the powers that be to decide for themselves which scenario they’d find more embarrassing – continuing an empty candidate slot well into election season, or having some nobody blogger or netroots activist as the only one willing to step in and fill the gap.