Soaring prices on grains and rice could be the worst wave of economic shafting we’ll see.

Statistics are projecting something of a perfect storm:

400% – Rise in the price of spring wheat over the last year

75% – Average world food price rise since 2005

16 million more people at risk of food insecurity for every percentage point rise in the price of staple foods

33% – Amount of maize harvested in US this year that will go to produce biofuels

That’s worldwide, not just our tanking dollar. Experts say it doesn’t have much to do with population, but in distribution. Droughts in Australia and the emerging middle class in China (who are adding much more meat to their diet) are factors, but the sheer amounts of crops biofuels will consume are staggering. From The Australian:

“The most contentious development among these is the rise in biofuels, and the use of food for fuel has attracted widespread criticism. Global biofuel production doubled between 2000 and 2007, from 21.8 billion litres in 2000 to 72.7 billion in 2007. The US has a target of 163.6 billion litres of biofuel by 2022.”

That ain’t chicken feed.

More below the jump:

The Australian continues:

“The US produces 43 per cent of the world’s biofuel, mostly from corn; Brazil produces 32per cent from sugar; and the European Union 15 per cent, largely from oilseeds. More than 40 countries have implemented policies to encourage the use of biofuels.”

From the UK Globe and Mail:

“Starting next week, Britain will require gasoline and diesel sold at the pumps be mixed with 2.5-per-cent biofuel, rising to 5.75 per cent by 2010 and 10 per cent by 2020, in line with European Union directives. Ontario’s ethanol-content mandate is 5 per cent. As the content requirements rise, more and more land is devoted to growing crops for fuel, such as corn-based ethanol. In the EU alone, 15 per cent of the arable land is expected to be devoured by biofuel production by 2020.”

And from Canada, the CBC reported on the stress to the meat industry:

“High feed prices are a problem across the country, from the concentrated feedlots in Alberta to hundreds of smaller farms, like the one Bob Murphy has operated for four decades in the small eastern Newfoundland town of Brigus.

“When the Canadian dollar went from – I don’t know what it was – 90 cents to $1.10, the price of cattle dropped 20 cents a pound, in a matter of six weeks,” Murphy said.

“So, you know, that just … well, it ruined my year.”

“Murphy said the (price of) feed – which farmers use to fatten up their animals before slaughter – is now killing them (the farmers).

“I know a guy who [has] a thousand head on feed in P.E.I.,” Murphy said. “So, just figure it out, how much they’re losing. If they’re losing $200 or $300 a head, how long can you stay in business doing that?”

Cattle farmers are trying to reduce the cost by shortening the “finishing time”, the time cattle are grain-fed to bulk them up, resulting in thinner cattle and meat that isn’t top quality.

The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) warned two weeks ago that it will be forced to ration food aid. Factor in the high petroleum costs of transporting any relief and the costs are doubled and trebled. This situation is volatile. Last week there were fatal food riots in Haiti, ongoing violent food-price protests in Egypt, Burkino Faso, Morocco and the Ivory Coast. These follow many riotous protests in Senegal and Mauritania earlier this year. Rice is so valuable throughout Africa it is now transported in armoured truck convoys (hijackings and killings had escalated). Armed soldiers now guard fields and warehouses. Export bans are being instituted. Argentina and India have introduced bans and/or added taxes on exported products such as wheat, dairy products and meat. Russia has frozen the prices of staple foods. Manufacturers in China and Thailand will have to negotiate food price increases with their governments from now on. Algeria and Saudi Arabia have increased food subsidies across the board to producers and distributors.

Here in the good ol’ USA, Bush has decided that the amounts of exported grains will remain the same to China, regardless of the possibility that Americans may soon be paying $2 or more for a pound of flour. When bread becomes a luxury, we’re in deep doo-doo.

Red-eye run: Salmon announces re-election bid, early

Times Argus MONTPELIER –

State Auditor Thomas Salmon’s re-election announcement blitz actually started at a Rockingham gas station at 5:30 a.m. Friday morning.

Salmon, who won a narrow recount election in 2006, met with a handful of supporters and two weary-eyed local reporters on his way up to Montpelier for work that morning. For Salmon, the stop was about coming full-circle in Vermont politics.

“I stop there in the mornings for coffee,” said Salmon, who gave a small speech at the gas station hours before his “official” re-election kick-off announcement in Barre and Burlington later Friday. “And this is where I made my formal announcement to run for state auditor two years ago.”

A Democrat actually announces his intentions to run …news worthy .Granted it is for re-election not another office but…..he announced it ! He declared! He must have thought about it ,seriously of course,and then announced his intention to run.Maybe a trend.Nice hook for the story the gas station thing at 5:30 AM many people can relate to that scene.He even had a Republican Mayor at another campaign event later in the day.Which may or may not be good thing .

(Go going Peter! Keep it up! – promoted by Christian Avard)

The latest from Peter Welch.

Watch out Halliburton/KBR! Peter’s on your tail (no bunny rabbit pun intended)!

Update: Mission accomplished perhaps? Check out the latest, courtesy of Peter Welch’s office:

Bush administration plans to close fraud loophole in response to Welch-initiated investigation

Washington, DC – The Bush administration has retreated in its proposal to exempt overseas contractors from reporting fraud after Rep. Peter Welch (VT-AL) initiated a congressional investigation last month.

Welch first called for the investigation through the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, on which he serves, on March 7, after learning of the loophole.

“This investigation proves why congressional oversight is essential.  Whether through my legislation or a new rule, we will close this multi-billion dollar loophole,” said Welch.  “The question is why it required a congressional investigation to prevent the Bush administration from giving overseas contractors a free pass to defraud taxpayers.  It defies common sense.”

In addition to requesting the investigation, Welch also introduced The “Close the Contractor Fraud Loophole Act,” H.R. 5712, to require all contractors, regardless of where the work is performed, to be subject to fraud reporting requirements.

The Subcommittee on Government Management, Organization, and Procurement will hold a hearing on the investigation initiated by Welch and on Welch’s legislation tomorrow, Tuesday, April 15 at 2:00 p.m.

From the website of the Tibetan Association of Vermont http://www.vermonttibet.org/:

Tibetan Association of Vermont & Students for a Free Tibet  are coordinating a “Peace March for Freedom in Tibet”. This 40 miles walk will start at 9 am on April 12th in downtown Burlington, Vermont in front of City Hall. It will conclude on April 14th at around 12:30 pm with a rally in front of State Capitol, Montpelier. There will be two stops, one in Richmond and other in Middlesex.

We invite everyone to begin planning to join us in Montpelier, VT on Monday April 14. You can also join the march from the beginning as well. Please contact tsering05408@yahoo.com or call (802) 578-0264 for sign up or for more information.

_______

Also, at 1:00 Wednesday, April 16th, a resolution in support of Tibet will be read on the House floor. Members of the Vermont Tibetan community will be there and will be introduced.

Crossposted to Birding New England and Reason and Brimstone

Last year, I had a few brief sightings of eastern bluebirds, but they were few and far between and I only spotted them a few times.  This time, I’ve had multiple sightings of them.  While last year, several of my sightings were directly connected with nesting boxes, this time, the sightings have been frequent and in areas with no visible nest boxes throughout the region.

I’m still relatively new to birding, so I find it difficult to know how much of this is my eye changing over time and being better at spotting (combined with having much better camera equipment than I had two years ago), and how much of it is a change in the environment or conditions from this year compared to last.  

Cornell has some interesting facts on Eastern Bluebirds:

The male Eastern Bluebird does a “Nest Demonstration Display” at the nest cavity to attract the female. He brings nest material to the hole, goes in and out, and waves his wings while perched above it. That is pretty much his contribution to nest building; only the female Eastern Bluebird builds the nest and incubates the eggs.

Eastern Bluebirds typically have more than one successful brood each year. See a Birdscope article for data from The Birdhouse Network that show this graphically. Young produced in early nests usually leave their parents in summer, but young from later nests frequently stay with their parents over the winter.

Eastern Blue birds are, by the way, quite a bit different from Western Bluebirds, which tend to have a very similar shape, but the males have a darker throat and the females and less contrast on the chest and throat.

As usual, the photos are smaller versions of full-sized images, which you can get to by clicking them.

Lottery Players Survey

Free Press

April 10, 2008

BARRE — Although a third of lottery players say their education ended after high school, a new survey suggests that half of all players have attended college, most graduated and a significant percentage hold post-graduate degrees.

These were some of the findings from a 2008 Player Demographics Study reported Wednesday to the Vermont Lottery Commission.

“The profile that emerges here debunks yet again that we are predatory,” said Arthur Ristau of Barre, commission vice chairman. He was referring to a commonly voiced belief that lottery players are poor and poorly educated and thus vulnerable to the lure of gambling as a way to get rich quick

The predatory aspect isn’t debunked simply because a wider section of the population is playing the Lottery.It’s preying wider demographically .Still one third of the players say their education ended after high school. People are lured by State sponsored and heavily prompted get rich quick tickets. It is not only the poor and un-educated ,but people that are better educated that are prey of the lottery.Prey responsibly,only one third can’t afford to lose.

70.1% wouldn’t be at all likely to buy lottery tickets online.

What other new and improved Lottery schemes are afoot as they try to boost up the revenue and save it from privatization?

Late lunch today. Thought I’d offer a quick recipe to passing IRV in Vermont once and for all given that, a) Jim Douglas will always veto it, and b) any deviation from the straight-up, traditional “check one” ballot will always peel off enough legislative votes to keep passage under the veto override theshold, even though most of those legislators will agree that the current system is unsatisfactory.

The solution, therefore:

1. Pass a traditional runoff law (or would that take a Constitutional amendment? Maybe not actually so simple…). If nobody breaks 50%, the top two have a runoff election a month later. Maybe we can get really daring and suspend the rules so we can pass this at the upcoming veto override session this year.

2. Douglas, naturally, vetoes this law too.

3. Enough legislators who were leery of IRV are more comfortable with a traditional runoff to be swayed. Veto is overridden.

4. In next election, nobody breaks 50%. A month later, there is a runoff. Douglas loses.

5. Next session, Legislature passes IRV and repeals traditional runoff election law. New Governor signs. Deed is done.

A big argument against a traditional runoff from IRV supporters is often the cost to taxpayers. I submit that the cost of a single runoff election (resulting in Douglas’s defeat) as compared to repeated unsuccessful veto override sessions year after year makes for a hefty savings.

Apologies if anyone has already posted Douglas’ statement regarding his veto of instant runoff voting for our federal House and Senate seats … but here it is just in case not.

My first comment immediately follows Douglas bullshit ….

April 4, 2008

The Honorable David A. Gibson Secretary of the Senate State House 115 State St., Drawer 33 Montpelier, VT 05633

Dear Mr. Secretary:

Pursuant to Chapter II, Section 11 of the Vermont Constitution, I am returning S. 108, An Act Relating to the Election of U.S. Representative and U.S. Senator by the Instant Runoff Voting Method, without my signature because of objections described herein. There are serious flaws with this proposal to alter Vermont’s system of elections. This system has served the people of Vermont well for more than 200 years and is one I had the privilege of administering for a dozen years as Secretary of State. This bill circumvents the fundamental democratic principle of one person, one vote. That is entirely unacceptable. The authors of our Constitution applied this standard – compelling each voter to choose the candidate for each office that she or he deems most qualified – to ensure that elections are in fact a clear choice.

(Governor’s website)

And it just continues to get worse …

The Attorney General’s office has confirmed in a formal, written opinion that attempts to amend the law in order to apply the so called Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) process to races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Treasurer would, in fact, be unconstitutional. While S. 108 would apply to the election of our U.S. Representative and U.S. Senator, this does not render the attempt to legislatively impose IRV democratically sound.

Our state Constitution provides a clear and effective mechanism for changes to its provisions. Voter approval, through the process set forth in our Constitution for its amendment, necessitates a statewide ballot that includes the voices of all Vermonters. If the Legislature proposes to fundamentally alter our election process, this is the procedure Vermont should follow. The Honorable David A. Gibson April 4, 2008 Page Two

Moreover, voters should not be asked to cast their ballots based on a wide range of hypothetical, theoretical or imaginary outcomes. Elections have always been, and ought to remain, contests among individual candidates and their ideas. Voters have always, and should continue to, cast their constitutionally protected vote for the individual for each office they believe would best serve Vermont. In addition, the process offered by this bill cannot result in a candidate being the top choice of a majority of voters. It is mathematically impossible for the candidate chosen by the IRV process to receive a majority of first votes cast. In other words, use of an IRV system requires a significant number of second and third choices – not the voter’s real choice – to be counted. It is therefore not valid to conclude, as the advocates and special interests do, that the winner of an IRV election would receive a majority of the vote. Finally, this system would undoubtedly lead to backroom deal making between candidates who urge supporters to vote for or against a second choice candidate if no one receives a majority. This would erode public confidence in the process. This proposal would cause a deterioration of our time tested, democratic and egalitarian electoral process. The current system has served the people of Vermont well for more than 200 years. There is no basis to make the democratically unsound change this bill proposes.

Sincerely,

James H. Douglas Governor

JHD/jg

For today I’m going to deal with this sentence: “It is mathematically impossible for the candidate chosen by the IRV process to receive a majority of first votes cast.

Well, okay, no explanation needed. Douglas is willing to put such a blatant lie in print … it leaves my fingers relatively typeless.

And nobody will run a negative campaign against this clown?

I just got a telephone political poll, didn’t catch the name of the polling company (Crane or Cone or something, maybe)… They asked to speak only to males, then asked a couple “likely to vote” questions before asking “Are you or is anyone in your family employed by a newspaper, radio station, television station, or other media outlet or is an elected official?” Without thinking, I answered yes, because I am, and they ended the questions there… I just wanted to know if anyone got the same call and if so, where the questions went from there… The reason I ask is that not asking whatever it was that they were going to ask because I belong to a category of people likely to make a public scene about nasty push polling makes me wonder if they were, in fact, engaging in some kind of business that they didn’t wish publicized…

Anyone else get one of these calls?

On a day where fossil fuels broke two new records – oil trading above $112 dollars a barrel and gasoline selling at an average of $3.34 a gallon – Peter Welch joined fellow Representatives Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill) and Edward Markey (D-Mass) in calling for the President to stop filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and begin releasing some of the oil in the reserve (currently at 96%) into the market. At current prices, the administration is spending nearly $8 million a day to add to a reserve that is practically at capacity already.

And it’s more than the supply/demand equation that Welch and company expect could be impacted by releasing oil. They’re also working against increased speculating which the current economy and the dynamic oil market has encouraged, and which has then driven the prices up even further in a vicious commercial cycle. Investments in commodities are unquestionably up across the board, but its hard to say with any certainty how big an effect they are having – but no one one argues that they aren’t having an effect. Altering the US’s role as buyer and supplier against this market the way Welch & company would like will definitely impact supply/demand and speculation. What it won’t impact is that part of the problem that is due to the current puniness of the dollar.

“The public is being ripped off and yet President Bush continues the misguided policy of topping off a reserve that is nearly full,” said Rep. Welch. “The President is simply out of touch, turning a blind eye to the pain consumers are feeling at the pump.”