I won’t belabor the point with a rambling post, but there is a point worth making. Yes, Obama’s comments suggesting he is laying the groundwork for re-considering his Iraq withdrawal policy have been overstated and overblown. That’s a given.
But the explosion is not simply a media fabrication. Not this time. It’s psychological cause and effect in action.
Obama has been vaulting to the right since sealing the nomination, and on high profile issues. Trade, civil liberties, the church/state divide. On guns and the death penalty, he was already there, but those two issues look less and less like anomalies. It’s left many of us feeling defensive, a bit burned, and pinned into a corner. Any statement he makes on Iraq, health care or tax policy is going to be littered with potential mines given the mood.
And that’s the problem. Obama’s campaign has pushed the mushy idea of “hope,” dealing in policy specifics only when it has to. And its worked pretty well. Certainly he’s got the youth vote motivated like never before, and its due to that message and the well-crafted image of the messenger himself.
But by flip-flopping on issues like FISA and running to the right on issues he was, perhaps, a bit deceptively fuzzy on during the campaign, he risks opening the floodgates on the thing his style of messaging cannot afford: cynicism.
Cynicism is, arguably, the single most powerful force in American Democracy, in that it squelches turnout at the polls right from the get-go. When cynicism is in play, it is a counter-force to change, as it enforces the status quo by generating non-participation and leaving those who do participate with wretchedly puny expectations of those who they have to choose from.
The youth vote may have come over to Obama’s camp, but based on the history of past campaigns, they are likely teetering on the brink. A couple more nudges, and they’re likely to go back to where they traditionally go on Election Day – anywhere but the polls.
And again, this isn’t about people being stupid. You can’t berate them into sucking it up and voting in a way that so cuts against their grain. People are individuals, but they also work as members of groups, and social psychology is every bit as powerful as the psychology of the individual. When we spend all our time ranting about how we think people should behave at the polls, instead of worrying about how they will behave (an upper-middle class liberal specialty), we’ve lost already.
If the tenuous hope Obama has built starts collapsing, giving way to renewed cynicism, it could build on itself and spread across his base like a tidal wave. The McCain campaign knows it, and they’re trying to feed it. The intensity of the conversation in recent days is not a sign of collusion between the GOP and the media, its a sign that cynicism is still viable among the electorate – even (especially?) in regards to Obama – and risks spreading uncontrollably.
If Obama’s political wind-testing and shifting are all about political pragmatism, it is likely that he’s working from a narrowcast, simplistic, insider-driven view of what is “pragmatic,” as its suicide for a campaign built on “hope” to so cavalierly court a resurgence of the very essence of political anti-hope.