(UPDATE/ADUSTMENT: It looks like Douglas and Symington did not reflect in-kind contributions on both the contribution and expense form while Pollina did, which means their cash on hand totals are a bit inflated, figured as they are by both me and the media as a simple function of cash-to-date minus expenditures. This doesn’t amount to anything for Symington who only reported about $200 in in-kinds, but Douglas reported more like $12,000. The adjustments are reflected below)
There’s an awful lot to look at here, so I’ll be doing some research in my (ha!) spare time over the next few days, as well as counting on hearing from some of you election geeks out there who catch things that I don’t. Here are the basic numbers:
- Douglas: $737,596.65 raised, $387,764.13 spent for
$349,832.52 $338,850.52 (see update note above) handy (includes a $55,853.93 ’06 rollover)
- Symington: $205,309.90 raised, $70,914.93 spent for
$134,294.97 $134,189.57 (see update note above) handy
- Pollina: $166,200.74 raised, $143,321.21 spent for
$31,905.77 (woops) $22,879.53 handy
Some basic analysis below the fold.
Let’s start with Pollina. If we are to believe the line from January – that they’d already raised $100,000 – that means in the intervening months he’s only raised $66k. Of course, I have no doubt that they were exaggerating at the time, but still, the reality is a bit bleak. Fundraising is way down, and most of its already spent. Clearly this is yet another sign that the independent move was an crisis-driven attempt to redefine, and reinvigorate what looks to be a very troubled campaign.
Let’s talk Symington. No bones about it, Douglas is kicking her ass financially, which is no surprise. Before today, I told myself she absolutely had to show from $200k to $400k, and she’s eked in at the low end of that, so its hard to feel thrilled about it. It’s at roughly two-thirds of what Scudder Parker had at this time two years ago, but on the upside, she has about $30,000 more on hand than Parker did at this point.
And yeah, its notable that she’s raised this money very quickly. Parker had been working for the better part of a year by now, and Symington has only been in the game for a measly couple months. Nevertheless, Election Day waits for no one, and to all those Symington supporters who were mocking all of us who were so annoyed at how damn long it was taking for someone to finally decide to get around to running a campaign, allow me to say with no humility whatsoever, that this is what we were freaking talking about!!!!
Still, one of the things that’s striking in the Symington report is how many of the usual suspect Dem-moneybag contributors have come nowhere near maxing out to her campaign. One wonders where they are as – like the acronym sez – early money is like yeast, but it does mean that she should be able to raise quite a bit more from this same pool over the next month.
But Douglas too, has quite a pool, in terms of simple quantity. He boasts a better than 3-to-1 advantage in people who have given $100 or more to his campaign. Yes, he’s an incumbent with big lists, but Symington clearly needs to do more to convince the large numbers of Dems in the state that she has a shot if they open up the checkbooks. Her reasonable financial showing, contrasted against Pollina’s malaise may help her to do that.
(And as a side note to all the internet mutterers, yes her husband did give to Anthony Pollina at the beginning of the year, but yes he has since given to his wife, and given more to boot)
…and then there’s the Governor. Big, big bucks, and a huge report to sift through. It’ll take me some time, as there’s quite a bit of giving from corporate sources (everywhere from obvious ones like WalMart and Anheiser Busch, to the more cryptic) that it may take me some time to identify.
Predictably, Douglas gets a lot of money from some of the wealthier businesspeople in the state and tons from development interests. Hardly a shocker. Big state contractors, such as EDS and Clough, Harbour & Associates also pony up. FairPont Communications throws in a token trickle, but I guess they’re kinda strapped these days.
The thing to notice about Douglas at this level, though, is just how much he’s spending. Despite his 3-and-a-half-to-1 fundraising advantage over Symington, he only has a 2-and-a-half-to-1 advantage in cash on hand. A lot of that money we’ll see soon enough; there are a lot of expenditures for ad development, and he’s already making ad buys, of course. But there’s a lot of money to consultants, and a buttload on polling. Traditionally, Dems have always spent money more carefully and efficiently in these things (they’ve had to), so hopefully that will create some equalizing effect as well. Symington has only just started polling, based on her info.
(And speaking of polling – there’s no sign of “Pacific Crest Research” – the folks who were doing the Brooke Bennett-based push poll on Douglas’s behalf across the state – on either Douglas’s or the state GOP’s report. A bit of sleuthing is definitely in order…)
One thing I will say, though, if you’re looking for Entergy money, it looks like you won’t find it on Douglas’s report. He’s too smart for that. Instead, you’ll have to check out the Vermont GOP report for a $2000 contribution (the max) from their ENPAC arm (you didn’t really think that they wouldn’t be pitching in somewhere, didja?).
More on the Party reports tomorrow evening…. or maybe Saturday. While shorter, the Party reports are a bit deceptive, in terms of how the whole financial horse race thing plays out. More on that soon…
Also, (and this replaces some questions I wrote and then removed in my first stab at this diary when my head was much fuzzier from being up too late), there are reporting differences. Pollina reports in-kind contributions on the expense and contribution sides, the other two seem not to. Not sure what standard practice is or should be, and the Secretary of State’s office gives little guidance on how to fill these things out, so you have to make some inferences one way or the other. I will say, Pollina makes it much easier to track in kind contributions on his form, compared to the other two.
More to come.