…to god’s ears.

Geez. Get a load of the Times Argus editorial today. Wow. It coulda come off this site…

In fact, it appears that McCain now will do or say anything to get elected. Even conservative columnists such as George Will and David Brooks have expressed dismay at the lack of integrity displayed by McCain during the campaign, his willingness to lie and alter his persona as the need arises.

The lies from and about Sarah Palin, his running mate, are now well known, such as her statement that she opposed the so-called Bridge to Nowhere. But in the McCain camp lying is now an acceptable campaign tool…

…Anything can happen. Democrats should not be optimistic. Lies about Obama have permeated the Internet, and McCain’s smear machine is working overtime. But there was that poll result. That, too, is a fact.

Now if we could just get them to stop making excuses for Jim Douglas election cycle after election cycle…

Wall Street Bailout: Trickle Down or Trickle Up?

 

If it's good enough for Baghdad Avenue, Iraq, will Congress consider it for Main Street, U.S.A., too?

ECONOMIC SURGE

Listening to Secretary Paulson and his merry band of socialist millionaire safety-netters, I keep thinking back to the Bush Administration's $Multi-$Billion Ca$h drop on Iraq.

Sitting on the precedent of using a surge of trickle up cash to revitalize a bombed out economy, Congress must consider recklessly dumping cash on Main Street rather than irresponsibly giving it to Wall Street.

How, why and what for after the flip . . .

 

With an economy freezing, recessing, depressing, deflating, nose-diving & tanking due to conservative Republican economic incompetence, Mister Bush and his administration are seeking approximately $700 Billion to throw at Wall Street bankers to “fix” the economy.

The first, of many, questions Congress must consider is whether an extremely small set of Wall Street Bankers are the most effective recipients of the equivalent of $5,400 per individual or joint U.S. taxpayer? (plus interest!).
 
Let's just say, if it is good Baghdad Avenue, maybe Congress should be willing to do it for Main Street too?

Mister Bush sent cargo jets of cash to jump start the distressed Iraqi economy.  Remember?

We then learned that another dozen or so $Billion were spread like Onan's seed, dispersed throughout Iraq without oversight, accountability or purpose. One more time, folks; THERE WERE F'ING JETS, MILITARY CARGO PLANES, FULLY LOADED WITH PALLETS OF CASH DROPPED ON IRAQ.

We can hardly say, at this point, that dumping cash on Main Street is a novel idea.

ECONOMIC SURGE

After seven years of Republican middle class to millionaire class wealth transfer, I propose a “Strike-All” bill. The amendment, posted below, to Mister Bush's proposed $700 billion giveaway. The alternative proposal sends the money instead to people who, at long last, deserve to receive some of what they've already paid.  It at least sends to working people the borrowed money Congress and Mister Bush intend to borrow from them and then squander. It's only fair, yes?

THE AMOUNT

Recall the U.S., in its exuberance to embrace the U.S. war on Iraq, sent pallets of cash to jump-start the Iraqi economy (even though it was clear that our war on Iraq was a disastrous mistake).

So what, it was only money, right?

So why $700Billion to Main Street, U.S.A.?  Why the same amount as the proposed Wall Street bailout?

Well, here's the great (sick?) part and really, who can argue with this (I mean seriously, who CAN argue with the logic of this?).

Consider the relevant demographic facts between Iraq and the U.S. in light of the alleged crises. This is all, purportedly, caused by mortgage defaults and the risk of Americans loosing their houses. It's about households:

IRAQ-U.S. COMPARISONS:  

Households: U.S. Approximately 105 Million — Iraq Approximately 4 Million.

AMOUNT of MONEY DROPPED PER HOUSEHOLD on IRAQ:** $27,000,000,000.00, ** which works out to approximately $6,750.00 per Iraqi household.   

By comparison, $6,750.00 dropped on every U.S. household ($6,750.00 x 105 million households) will cost $708.75 billion, which we'll just call $709 Billion.

$709 Billion? Hmmmm? I've heard a number just like that recently, yes?

I think you see where I'm going with this.

So, if Congress decides to drop the same amount of money, per household, on Main Street, U.S.A. that Mister Bush did on Main Street, Iraq, it would cost the exact same $700 billion they are now talking about dropping on Wall Street, New York.

I wish I were making this up.

Soooooooooo . . . . in the meantime . . . . . What's good enough for Iraq, as they say, is good enough for Main Street. After all, Mister Bush did not spend all that $27Billion in one Baghdad market, he spread it all over a country that he had just bombed into pieces. So why spend $700 billion on just one street, Wall Street, in the U.S. when he has economically bombed our entire country into a recession with conservative economic policies?

Seems the Fed & the Treasury already have the money presses rolling. Now all they need are the cargo planes.

—————————————

Addendum:

The original GOP proposal was a complete giveaway with no oversight, no accountablity, it changed banking/accounting regulations to make the system less stable and less transparent and basically added to the problem while ripping off the taxpayers. Our feckless Democratic leaders in Congress Paulson's original proposal, which was not hard to do, went to the drafting board and (sigh) came back with multiple drafts and “compromises” that do basically the same harm in a slightly different form.

 

No matter how much better a terrible bill Congress ultimately passes, if Congress must give $700 billion away for no meaningfully fair, just and effective purpose, then here is an equally and possibly more reasonable alternative for them to consider. It is far fairer and more likely to help the economy — not that it matters to the people in D.C. who are doing this to us — but for what it's worth. 

 

The Main Street $700 billion pallets of money Strike-All Amendment

 

STRIKE-ALL Amendment proposed by the “congressional.give.a.crap.coalition” to be inserted in lieu of S___ and H.R.____ relating to The Treasury Authority to Swallow Mortgage Backed Securities Act. 

 

It is hereby proposed that all language contained in of S.___ and all H.R.___, after the bill introduction, be stricken in its entirety.  In place of the language now under consideration, the following langue shall be inserted —

 

Sec. 1. TITLE:

 

LEGISLATIVE PROPOSAL FOR TRICKLE-UP AUTHORITY AND FOR THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY TO BOMB MAIN STREET AMERICA WITH CASH AND TO SECURE MIDDLE AMERICA'S DEFAULTING MORTGAGES ON WHICH WALL STREET DECEPTIVELY BET ITS OWN HOUSE (of cards)

 

Sec. 2.  FINDINGS:

 

WHEREAS: The economy is not “fundamentally sound” as has been repeatedly represented by Mister Bush and Mister McCain. We are in a recession. Hello! America can thank the Republican party and its regressive taxes, its billionaire give-a-ways, its deficits and its inability to run government, or an economy, or a war, or domestic policy, or foreign policy, or to plan for the future, or to understand history or to govern without resorting to extreme corruption and criminality for our current economic crises; and

 

WHEREAS: Whereas Mister Bush and his deficit-inflating, class-warrioring, fiscal demolition-derby Republican economic policy genius advisors did deliver C-5 cargo jets stuffed with pallets of money into Iraqi warzones; and

 

WHEREAS:  The pallets of money Mister Bush, the Federal Reserve and the Air Force delivered to the streets of Iraq just happened to go into neighborhoods experiencing a distressed and bombed out housing market; and  

 

WHEREAS: Republican-Americans in Congress voted in lock-step with Mister Bush for seven years to loot the treasury, rape the middle class, engage in vicious class warfare and sell our children's future to a lifetime of economic decline; and

 

WHEREAS: It is the intent of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, the Bush administration and the criminals who have supported seven years of robbing working Americans blind to pull Just.One.Last.BIG-Time.Heist.Before.January.20th before they sneak out of D.C; and

 

WHEREAS: Tens of thousands of criminally rich Wall Street bankers have, in just 7 short years, paid themselves far in excess of $700 Billion in the form of

 

extreme bonuses and exorbinate and frequently unearned executive pay, and

extreme compensation for fraudulent activity against stockholders; and

extreme compensation for fraudulent conduct against consumers; and

extreme compensation for fraudulent conduct against the IRS; and

extreme compensation for violating fiduciary duties to their own banking institutions; and

 

these same bankers retain billions of dollars of wealth and shall remain wealthy beyond Main Street's imagination regardless of whether they receive a $Trillion advance to cover their bad bets to be paid from our children's future toil and regressive payroll taxes; and

 

WHEREAS: Trickle Down economic theory has a proven track record of failure.  It is a guaranteed approach for transferring wealth generated by the hard work, sacrifice and toil of working Americans straight to the gated communities of monopolized wealth.  Republican “Trickle Down” economics is class warfare intended to transfer resources from working Americans to an insulated handful of billionaires, multi-millionaires and to government favored & subsidized corporations, all of whom are legally shielded from the burden of supporting the United State's fiscal and infrastructure commitments; and

 

WHEREAS: Every DNA fiber of the Wall Street bailout is another example of Republican and Bush Administration regressive fiscal class violence and Democratic capitulation —

 

BE IT NOW THEREFORE ENACTED by Congress to address the current economic crises caused by Wall Street gambling, Republican deregulation and corruption and unmasked predatory behavior against the dignity of working Americans that:

 

Section 3. Short Title.

This Act may be cited as “We Did it to Iraq So Let's Do It to Main Street Money Bomb Act of 2008.”

 

Sec. 4. Appropriations:

(a) Authority to $pend$.–The Secretary is authorized to summon the Air Force and load cargo jets to the gills with pallets of money.  The Secretary shall make sound and reasonable payments up to $6,750.00 to middle America with NO terms and conditions determined by the Secretary.

 

(b) Necessary Actions.–The Secretary is authorized to take the following actions, as the Secretary deems necessary, to carry out the expeditious delivery of unaccounted for cash, up to $700 billion, to Main St., U.S.A.:

 

(1) ordering pallets;

(2) commandeering jets;

(3) stacking the pallets full of money;

(4) Attaching parachutes to pallets of money;

(5) Commandeering pizza delivery cars/trucks and their drivers to quickly and accurately make sure Middle America receives the case as soon as they ask for it;

(6) paying money to “Any American” including taxpayers, homeowners, working Americans and anyone generating economic activity in the United States as designated by this Act; and

(7) issuing regulations and guidance as necessary or appropriate to carry out the delivery of cash to Main Street, U.S.A. as authorized under the authority of this Act.

 

Sec. 4. Designated Recipients of Pallets of Cash.

 

In exercising the authorities granted in this Act, the Secretary shall pay money, up to $6750.00 to Any American.  For purposes of this Act, “Any American” shall   person with an adjusted gross income of $75,000.00 or less who lives in a household anywhere in the United States, other than on Wall Street, who is threatened by conservative economic policies and who —

 

(1) Works, has worked, will work, has a home, wants a home or has lost a home to the vagaries of the Republican economy; and

(2) Faces or fears the possibility of foreclosure; and

(3) For purposes of this Act “any American” shall also include a family with an adjusted gross income of $125,000.00 per annum or less or a married/civil-unioned couple (even if their state refuses to recognize their marriage) and who together have an adjusted gross income of $100,000.00 or less; and

(4) For purposes of this Act, “any American” also means any sick, disabled, veteran or family facing foreclosure due to Republican economic, social, tax, war or health care policy, and who has already received the maximum benefit, may petition for another benefit.

 

Sec. 5. Review.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are reviewable by a coupla' hard, pipe-hittin' **economists** who'll go to work on the trickle-down Republicans with a pair of pliers and a blow torch and get medieval on his ass” if the Secretary doesn't show Main Street the money the way the Bush administration has shown the money to American's monopolized wealth class.

 

Sec. 6. Definitions.

For purposes of this section, the following definitions shall apply:

 

(1) Secretary.–The term “Secretary” means the Secretary of the Treasury.

(2) United States.–The term “United States” means the everywhere in the U.S. except Wall Street.

 

 

———–
** $27 Billion – This figure is a rounded number taken from a 2008 adjusted value of the money airlifted into the war zone and the dozen or so $Billions that just disappeared after being trucked into the desert and poured into all sorts of alleged projects and random money dumps throughout Iraq.

 

[NOTE: This post was revised from the earlier version]

THE FIRST VERMONT PRESIDENTIAL STRAW POLL (for links to the candidates exploratory committees, refer to the diary on the right-hand column)!!! If the 2008 Vermont Democratic Presidential Primary were

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Truth to Power: Bill Moyers Two-Part Interview of “Limits of Power” author, Andrew J. Bacevich

 After Bill Moyers Part 1 interview with Bacevich, conservative historian and author of the new book, Limits of Power, his book became the latest must-read on the subject of American political imperialism, the Iraq war, and Congress' abdication of power to the Executive Branch.

And guess what?  He's saying what almost every liberal in America has been saying for quite a long time. And he's not pulling any punches.

Part 2 also hits a home run because Bacevich discusses the implications of what's happening right now in a way that no one else is willing to talk about.  

Truth to Power. I'm not able to post the video here, so here's the link.  Both part of the interview are accesible on the same page.  

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/09262008/watch.html

 

 

 

Dubie’s curiosity taxing…..

( – promoted by odum)

Dubie touts record as ‘co-pilot’

Dubie says candidates for lieutenant governor have never been expected to make such disclosures, and he finds it curious that the issue has surfaced now.

“There’s never been a public disclosure other than the governor’s office, period,” Dubie says. “I’m hesitant, in the middle of a political campaign, to break precedent. Where does it stop? Does he want my health records too? There just isn’t any guidance on this.”

Well it can be easily explained and there is guidance to be had.

Governor Jim Douglas the man for whom Dubie is the self proclaimed co-pilot made an issue of Symington’s tax release disclosure. He even made a TV commercial about this specific issue you may have missed.

So its not at all that curious. There is guidance on this. Gov.Douglas has made an issue of it and your actions are in opposition to his stated position. Heading in two directions at once …now that’s no way to co-pilot.

I wish the Times-Argus hadn’t buried this at the end of the article. It is worthy of being the main focus given the elevation of the tax issue by the Gov.

http://www.timesargus.com/apps…

Thoughts on the debate?

I’m not surprised to see that the general feeling among the public is that Obama took the night. The pundits, of course, weren’t sure where to go, given the dearth of “knockout blows” or any truly memorable soundbites. As such, they crept out with a generalized “its a tie” narrative (its safe) until the public feedback from instant polls started coming in, after which they could comment on that. And based on that, its becoming more and more presented as an Obama win.

As someone who wants Obama to win, I share the frustration of many that Obama left bread and butter issues largely on the table and let McCain guide the direction of debate. I also agree that the obvious PR tactic of agreeing with McCain on many occasions was possibly a well too frequently returned to.

But the fact is, this was Obama’s best debate yet. During the primaries, Obama was not a good debater. There were times when he was even poor. This weakness was mightily exacerbated by the fact that he is such a good orator, and people (bloggers and pundits included) tend to conflate the two skills, given that they both involve public speaking. As such, expectations were always high for Obama, so when he didn’t do so good… well…

But he was good last night. Very good. Great? No, he’ll never be a great debater in the major-media-stage sense, but if he can keep his performance at this level, he’ll be fine.

McCain, on the other hand, delivered a sub par performance. McCain also is not a great debater in this setting. His extreme stiffness, inappropriate tendencies to smile and weird deer-in-the-headlights expression can be a bit disturbing. But McCain always did well in the primary debates because he always injected his comments with an off-the-cuff sounding dose of biting humor. In this way, he always won the war for the soundbite in all the post-debate coverage, and consistently saw his numbers climb from the basement in which they’d lived for so long last year.

In other words, McCain always got a leg up – not from substance – but from the peripherals. Last night, the humor was gone from McCain’s peripheral toolset. All that was left was a sort of bitter, angry condescension that seemed to be kind of omnipresent and free-floating. It was very off-putting.

Next time, though, funny McCain will return, and we’ll likely be greeted with a chorus of pundits talking about a “new, reinvigorated McCain” as they’ll repeatedly play his calculated jab-joke-du-jour while celebrating his return to form. That will make it all the more critical that Obama not return to form as well…

Economic Bailout: Trickle Down or Bottom Up?

More and more people are questioning the unprecedented $700 billion corporate bailout we’re likely to see from Washington. Again, few but the most hardcore economic-social darwinist set would argue that there isn’t a genuine crisis unfolding, but the question is where and how the government should involve itself (especially given legitimate questions about exactly what this magical $700 billion number is actually covering).

But I noticed a fundamentally different opinion than what we’ve been hearing tucked away on the letters page of the NY Times this week:

It seems to me that the (top-down) approach is all backward: the plan of Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. is meant to stem the cascading defaults in derivatives and similar securities whose complexity no one fully understands and whose total dollar amount is still a mystery.

But if everything is somehow tied one way or the other to the original subprime loans, whose amounts and terms can be ascertained, then why does not the government simply guarantee those loans so there will be no defaults to set off the myriad triggers of the financial doomsday machine Wall Street created?

Granted, it would be bailing out a bunch of poor people who should have known better, but at the same time it will be bailing out a bunch of rich bankers who probably did know better, so no one can claim unfairness. And, in the end, people get to keep their homes, living the American dream while also reducing the foreclosure sales that are causing declines in real estate values for all homeowners.

Moreover, the stock markets will then stabilize, preserving trillions of dollars in wealth accumulation. So the taxpayers foot the bill, but they also benefit.

But, hey – why should anybody care what this naive shlub says? He’s only “a partner of M & A International (Brussels), which advises companies and private equity firms on acquisitions in Europe.” I mean, don’t they speak French in Brussels?

Times Argus On-line Poll Pollina in Second

While GMD likes to post polls from a plethora of sources, I figured this one would be helpful in stimulating debate.

Times Argus On-Line Poll for 09/18/2008 Which candidate do you support for Governor? 

Times Argus Poll

Number of votes cast: 782

And for this one with the Rutland Herald.

 

Number of votes cast: 775

Polls like this may not be scientifc for they are not fully accurate, however it does refute the central premise of many GMD posts that say Pollina has no support. I agree they are not 100percent accurate; nonetheless I question the validity of polls organized by WGOP-TV, or the national based organizations like Rasmussen who fail to include the non-two party candidates in their polls.

All candidates issues should be reported and elections should not be merely horse-raced. I have clear convictions and reasons for supporting Pollina, for to I hope that you may as well, instead of playing electability games, or even worse judging a candidate by who has raised the most money. Those games are unproductive and uncalled for in a democracy. Vermonters should be able to choose a candidate based on issues and not what wealthy individuals or Wall Street like individuals have contributed to the campaign. The average Vermonter can not afford to pay their bills let alone donate to political campaigns.

So while some posts here at GMD beat the dead horse that Pollina has no chance, it is a much different reality on the street. People are appalled that Symington is the Democratic candidate. I have heard it from Republicans and Democrats say “Pollina is due to be given a chance, for Douglas and Symington had their chances.”

Both Douglas and Symington have been muttering “they are going to…”, however they both have failed to, and instead they had mutually compromised Vermonters values. So as this poll may say, along with the VSEA, NEA, AFL-CIO, and the Abanaki endorsement implications, and the growing display of Pollina lawn signs it is clear that many Vermonters support Pollina and want real change.

After each passing debate more Vermonters are awakening to the understanding that Pollina is the strongest voice to lead Vermont away from the past’s failed politics and economics. How about you, do you support the status quo?

 Robb Kidd

 

Disclosure: I am an active supporter of Anthony Pollina and have donated to his campaign; however I have never been a paid employee of any political party or have held any leadership positions within a political party.

The Subprime Primer

This simple, stick-figure slideshow has been getting around by email for a few months now, and Steve Schmida recently passed it alon.  Its been about a week and a half trying to figure out how to post a Power Point slideshow on GMD to no avail.

But here's a link to this very enlightening presentation.  It's essentially Part One of the current financial crisis.  The Subprime Primer explains in layperson terms how the mortgage crisis began.

http://docs.google.com/Present?docID=df5qhc72_137dx8hgchj&fs=true&revision=_latest&start=0

To put things in chronological perspective, think of it this way:

Part One:  The Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2007

Part Two:  The Wall Street Meltdown of 2008

Part Three:  The Deep Recession on Main Street coming to you in 2009 and 2010.

An explanation about Part 2, the Wall Street Meltdown, is just below the fold.  

 

 

While the Fed's blank-check, no oversight proposal is about the craziest idea possible, we are definitely at the beginning of hardship across the economy.  It's just a matter of time before — and in fact it's already beginning — before this affects most Americans.  For example, I just had to refinance my mortgage and in the process I requested $10,000 for weatherization.  Answer?  Nope.  There's another tale to tell here, but I'll save that for another diary.

To help people understand how this all started, I'll be posting a stick figure slide show that explains how mortgage-backed securities were pushed into the marketplace as soon as I can figure out how to post it.  It's called, “The Subprime Primer,” and it's been making the rounds via email for several months now but was of less interest until this meltdown.

In the meanwhile, here's a quickie rundown on subprime loans, how the dominoes were set up, and why they're falling down now.

PART ONE:  SETTING UP THE DOMINOES

Note:  All numbers are hypothetical.  The real debt in our economy right now is staggeringly higher than these demonstration figures.

The Sub-Prime Loan

First, the homeowner borrows money through a complicated sub-prime loan that begins with a really low interest rate they think they've gotten a great deal.  The mortgage broker, who is really nothing more than a glorified salesperson, gives the homeowner a really smooth pitch and probably offered little information about the risk involved.  That's all in the fine print, which the mortgage broker is supposed to review with the borrower, but in reality rarely mentions the depth of the risk at all.  The broker works on a commission and can make something like $5,000 in a single transaction, so why get the homeowner all nervous, right?  Home values are going up, up, up and everything's going to be all right, right?

Borrowing Money is called Leveraging

Imagine you're deep in debt, thinking you own more in assets but just by virtue of borrowed money.  Of course, this is how most of us buy our homes.  Let's call this process of taking on debt “leveraging.”  You put down $10,000 and then borrowed $200,000 to buy a house.  This means you've leveraged (borrowed) on a 1:20 ratio.

Ok, now forget houses and homeowners.  Instead, imagine a firm like Bear Stearns buy mortgages or mortgage-backed securities as “paper,” which is really nothing more than numbers on a computer screen and a binding agreement as with any non-cash purchase.

Let's also say that Bear Stearns borrowed $200 billion worth of mortgages or mortgage-backed securities putting down $10 billion of their own money.  Bear Stearns has leveraged on a 1:20 ratio.  Bear Sterns takes the $200 billion worth of paper and converts it into a variety of investment securities like CDOs or even high-rate CDs.  

Cutting Up Leveraged Mortgage Debt into Investment Securities

Bear Sterns sells a good chunk of the paper in the form of CDOs and CDs on the open market in order to see the value of their paper rise.  But Stearns also has to keep a good chunk of the paper for themselves in order to realize their profit after the price rises.  The formula for Stearn's profit will be equal to the amount of paper they kept times the amount of rise in value of the paper on the open market at the time they choose to sell what remains of their paper.

AIG Securities Insurance

Now when Bear Sterns chops up $200 billion worth of paper into new securities, they buy securities insurance from AIG.  Whenever you borrow more money than you have in assets, you have to insure your debt.  If a homeowner doesn't have home insurance, the lending bank requires an insurance policy to cover the amount that's borrowed.  Same thing goes for borrowed money on securities.  

So AIG is now in the game, too.  And at a much, much larger scale because AIG is insuring almost every investment bank passing along mortgage-backed securities.

Putting the Cut Up Mortgage-Backed Securities into the Open Market

Ok, now let's say Stearns put $100 billion of paper into the open market.  Then lots of players get into the game.

Mutual fund managers, pension fund managers, and retail brokerage firms (AG Edwards, Edward Jones, etc.) buy up paper thinking, hey, real estate is going through the roof, let's make some money off from this.

Now the mortgage-backed paper is spread throughout the investment economy.

And the dominoes are now set.

PART TWO:  THE DOMINOES BEGIN TO FALL

The Assumption of Increasing Value

The underlying assumption when either homeowners or investment firms borrow more money than they put down is that the thing they bought will increase in value.  The assumption is that the value of either the house or the “paper” will go up.  Of course, one should never assume such things, but if they're right this is how it works.

If the value of the home goes up to $400,000 and the homeowner sells, he or she clears the debt of $180,000, gets back the $10,000 he/she put in, plus a nifty profit of $200,000.

It's a little different for Bear Sterns in this way:  they sell a good chunk of their paper out on on the open market and keep a good chunk for themselves.  As the prices of their mortgage-backed securities rise in the open market, the value of the securities the kept rise right along with the open market rate.  The calculation for profit, as stated earlier, is equal to the amount of paper they kept times the amount of rise in value of the paper on the open market at the time they choose to sell what remains of their paper.

Underlying Assumptions are Wrong, Wrong, Wrong.

But let's say the assumption is flat out wrong.  The value of the $200,000 home plummets to $100,000 and the homeowner defaults.  The homeowner has lost $10,000 and is on the hook for $180,000.

The first round of homeowners who defaults are the millions of folks who had no idea what was in the fine print that the mortgage broker conveniently didn't tell them.  No money down and a low interest rate to start, but every year the interest rate increases dramatically, so much so they can no longer afford the payments.  It's almost like they've bought a home on a credit card, the interest rates are so high.  Imagine $180,000 on your credit card.  The second round of homeowners default because suddenly the value of homes around theirs begin to fall.  Their $200,000 home drops to a point that makes no sense to keep up their mortgage.  That's called “negative equity” and some of these folks put their house keys in the mailbox and drive away forever.

Now the dominoes begin to fall.

The homeowner defaults and home prices fall.  Seeing this, investors in the open market (pension and mutual fund managers, retail brokers, etc.) start selling the mortgage-backed securities because they suddenly recognize that they're holding bad paper.  The price of these securities plummet in the open market as everyone begins to unload.

Remember Bear Sterns?  They borrowed $180 billion to get this paper out on the market.  Now they're holding the biggest chunk of bad paper and the firms they borrowed money firm are calling in the debt.  Bear Stearns can't pay the loan and is the first firm to go bust.

Other investment banks engaged in the same practice are also in peril.  But here comes the tipping point.

AIG, the biggest insurance company in the world, has insured all of this bad paper from almost every major investment bank on in the US, and who knows, maybe even overseas.  As every player in the open market realizes that all of these mortgage-backed securities is bad paper, races to sell causing prices to fall and Bear Sterns to default on 1:20 leveraged debt it's carrying,  AIG has to pay out a staggering amount of money in order to fulfill it's obligation as a securities insurer.  Then AIG's stock value plummets and goes into a meltdown.

Because AIG is insuring a ton of other securities loans, the entire economy can't afford to let AIG go under.  If AIG goes bust, then every firm who loaned money to firms like Bear Stearns will call in the debt because the insurance on the loan has disappeared with the fall of AIG.  The lender knows that the borrower is holding a ton of bad paper and is at huge risk of defaulting on the loan.  With a debt ratio of 1:20, this means that the firm has 20 times more debt than assets, so even if the borrower sells everything down to the kitchen sink, the lender is going to suffer a huge loss, too.  Just like Bear Stearns, every firm holding bad paper are at huge risk of failure, so the lender wants to get the money owed as quickly as possible.  This is the financial definition of “exposure.”

Ok.  Wall Street is in a huge crisis.  No one is lending money because of the risk of default is so staggering.  This is what economists are talking about when they refer to a “credit freeze.”  With no lending or credit to buy, the market depends on solid assets.  

So who's got money in the bank?  What other firms are “too big to fail?”

The Cherry Picking Begins

Barclays of London has enough assets and credit to buy Lehman's.  Wachovia seeks to merge with Morgan Stanley.  Warren Buffet squeezes a no-lose deal buying up a huge stake in Goldman Sachs.  And it really is cherry picking.  The prices are lower than fire-sale.  The buyers only purchase the best assets the dying firms hold, leaving the bad paper out of the deal.  

And there's no guarantee that some of this cherry picking and mergers are going to work out.  Just yesterday with the failure of Washington Mutual, Wachovia is downgraded and may be the next to fall.  

What does this mean for the rest of us?

Do your remember the line near the end of Mary Poppins, right after the song, “Tuppins,” and the right before the run on the bank?

While stand the banks of England, England stands.  
When fall the banks of England… ENGLAND FALLS!

Wall Street is the heart that pumps the US and global economy.  If Wall Street can't borrow money and has to liquidates assets, that means you can't borrow money, and you might have to liquidate assets.  Your investment values decrease dramatically so you can't retire when you planned to.  Interest rates rise, leading to inflated prices on just about everything, including groceries and essentials.  Businesses downsize.  People lose their jobs.  Life gets hard.

What Kind of Bailout is Best?

There's no question that government has to intervene, but the trillion dollar question is, “What's the best solution?”

Should the US bailout investment banks with no oversight and no strings attached leaving taxpayers on the hook?  That was probably the assumption for the high-flying financiers who started this mess.  

Should the government demand a stake in the companies is rescues, or should we just buy up all of the bad paper and try to resell it (huh?) in a way that will reassure players in the open market?

What if the government starts at the source and helps homeowners keep from defaulting?

Maybe we can combine multiple tactics?

Ultimately, who pays?

Everybody.  

Taxpayers.  Strong firms on Wall Street.  Hopefully, other countries will hold up their own financial systems and not rely on the US to bail out every foreign bank in the world.  

Countries with surpluses, including Brazil, China, Saudi Arabia, etc., won't pay for this meltdown, but they might join in the fire-sale cherry picking and assume a huge stake in the American economy.  Then they can reap huge profits when the economy recovers.

Sovereign Wealth Funds.  These are government-owned investment funds that seek returns in the open market.  The United States doesn't have it's own Wealth Fund because first, we don't have any assets, just debt; and second, it seems like some leading anti-government capitalists espouse an extreme belief in laissez-faire economics.  

How Bad Is It?

Things are bad, real bad.  There's no question that the government has to step in and fix up this mess.  But, as I mentioned above, the real controversy is the trillion dollar question about the best way to intervene.

Sarkozy, the current president of the EU, has called for worldwide banking regulation and oversight, saying the era of self-regulation is over.  He may just well be right, even if the US doesn't affect any new legislation.

Since the US has essentially socialized investment underwriter AIG with an 80% stake in the global company, our government will ultimately be responsible for providing many new insurance policies related to investment loans.  But our role in AIG is less than certain over the next few months so this scenario is not likely.

More likely, the US government will have to create new, fairly strident oversight policies for Wall Street.  If we don't there's the chance that other governments will lose faith in our system and pull their money out of US securities and focus more trading through other financial centers like London or Hong Kong.  On the surface we will encounter political pressure, but the real driver is sheer economics and lack of confidence in the US system.

Conclusion:  The Impact on US Power

While it should be pretty clear by now that the US economy faces huge exposure to both internal and external risk, there may be significant political consequences as well.

Today, Russia has offered Venezuela $1 billion for military weapons.  Two days ago, North Korea pulled out of its agreement to stop its nuclear missile program.  US-Pakistani relations are going south.  

It's as if the world can see the vulnerable underbelly of the world's only superpower, the United State of America.

And since the Bush Administration has created more enemies than friends, it's not a good time to have our belly exposed.