I know many of us are feeling pretty good right now, here's a bit of funny for you from the Borowitz Report:

Just minutes after their party's longstanding losing tradition lay in tatters on the ground, millions of shell-shocked Democrats stared at their television screens in disbelief, asking themselves what went right.
For Democrats, who have become accustomed to their party blowing an election even when it seemed like a sure thing, Tuesday night's results were a bitter pill to swallow.

The head-shaking and finger-pointing over the demise of the Democrats' losing streak, which many of the party faithful had worn like a badge of honor, reached all the way to the upper echelons of the Democratic National Committee.

"Believe me, I'm as shocked by these results as anybody," said DNC chief Howard Dean, who indicated he has received hundreds of calls from incredulous party members.  "We did everything in our power to screw this thing up."

Dean pointed to several key elements the Democrats put in place to ensure defeat, ranging from "a rancorous primary campaign" to "the appointment of me."

"Somehow, despite our best efforts to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, we won," he said.  "I came in here with a mandate to blow this thing and I didn't get it done."

“The very purpose of the Bill of Rights was to withdraw certain subjects from the vicissitudes of political controversy, to place them beyond the reach of majorities and officials and to establish them as legal principles to be applied by the courts. One’s right to life, liberty, and property, to free speech, a free press, freedom of worship and assembly, and other fundamental rights may not be submitted to vote; they depend on the outcome of no elections.”

Justice Robert H. Jackson in W. Virginia State Board of Education v.

Barnette (1943)

More specifically, what metrics will you use to judge Obama’s term in the Oval Office a success or other?

We still don’t know the full makeup of the US Senate for 2008, but it’s never too early to start looking at what we can expect for 2010.  

As with 2008, there are more Republicans up for election than Democrats, though the ratio isn’t quite as stark.  There are 19 Republicans up for re-election and 15 Democrats.  There are some clear safe seats on both sides, but there are also some serious vulnerabilities that we can exploit in 2010.  

This post is intended to be a primer for those races and what our best avenues are for increasing Democratic majorities to a filibuster-proof margin.  

Republican likely safe seats:

Johnny Isakson  (R-GA)

He did extremely well last time around and has no lingering scandals

Mike Crapo  (R-ID)

No one even bothered running against him last time around

Sam Brownback  (R-KS)

Brownback will probably be retiring in 2010, but even in this election, Kansas went 57% for McCain.  It’s likely to remain in Republican hands

Richard Shelby  (R-AL)

Very well loved in a very red state (it went 61% for McCain this time around).  Even if he retires (he’s in his mid 70’s), it’s likely to go to a Republican.

Tom Coburn  (R-OK)

Homophobic anti-spending crusader Coburn won by a decent margin last tine around, in a state Obama just lost by double-digits.  I don’t think he’s going to face much of a challenge.

Robert Bennett  (R-UT)

Won with 69% of the vote last time around.  I’m not going to spend much time thinking about this one

Jim DeMint  (R-SC)

Solid Republican in a solid red state.  Might be vulnerable, but probably not

Democrat likely safe seats:

Chris Dodd  (D-CT)

If Dodd chooses to remain in the Senate, he’s likely to keep his seat.  Currently, there’s little taste for Republicans in the Northeast.

Patrick Leahy  (D-VT)

Leahy will get reelected to his Senate seat in Vermont as long as he wants it.

Blanche Lincoln  (D-AR)

Has won handily in both her Senate elections.

Barbara Boxer  (D-CA)

Boxer is likely to keep her Senate seat for as long as she wants it

Daniel Inouye  (D-HI)

Inouye is in his mid-80’s, so it’s hard to say if he’ll keep running for Senate, but HI is a fairly blue state.  Even if he’s not running in two years, the seat will probably stay in the “D” column

Byron Dorgan  (D-ND)

Has won by extremely large margins every time he’s run for Senate.  No opponent of his has reached 40%.

Barack Obama, (D-IL)

He’s clearly not going to be keeping his Senate seat, but any Democrat appointed in his place will probably keep the seat.

Evan Bayh  (D-IN), Barbara Mikulski  (D-MD), Harry Reid  (D-NV), Chuck Schumer  (D-NY), Ron Wyden  (D-OR), Patty Murray  (D-WA) & Russ Feingold  (D-WI) all did very well in 2004.  They’re likely to retain their seats if they run again.  

Pick-up opportunities for Democrats:

John McCain  (R-AZ)

McCain’s senate seat, if he chooses to run for Senate again, is in jeopardy.  Recent polls indicate that people would prefer Janet Napolitano to McCain.  He may, however, choose not to run for public office again.  Furthermore, he will be in his mid-70s by the time that election is underway and it may just be more than he wants to deal with.  A strong Democrat has a really great chance to take this seat.

Lisa Murkowski  (R-AK)

She won by a very small margin in 2004, and has been part of a land deal scandal since that election.  Then again, Alaskans seem to like that sort of thing, so it’s a tough call.

Mel Martinez  (R-FL)

Martinez won in 2004 by slim margins, during a presidential election in which Florida went for Bush.  Without Bush’s coattails, and after the state having just gone Blue, he may not survive 2010.

George Voinovich  (R-OH)

Voinovich is a Republican in his mid-70’s who would be facing reelection in a state which is trending solidly blue.  He may not have the fight in him, and even if he does, he might not be up for the challenge.

Jim Bunning  (R-KY)

Bunning is in his late 70’s and just barely won in 2004.  During a debate in 2004 he was extremely incoherent to the point where even his friends were concerned for his health.  I’ll be surprised if he runs again, but KY is a very red state which ran 58% for McCain.  It’s an uphill battle

David Vitter  (R-LA)

Diaper boy.  I’ll say no more.

Chuck Grassley  (R-IA)

Grassley is in his 70’s and though he’s well liked in Iowa, may just not be up for running again.  There’s a decent chance at replacing him with a Democrat

Kit Bond  (R-MO)

Kit Bond did well in 2004, but Missouri is a swing state and he may be vulnerable if he has a strong challenger

Judd Gregg  (R-NH)

Gregg slaughtered his opponent in 2004, but she was a grassroots candidate with no strong support from the party.  NH has been trending strongly blue and no Republican has won a congressional House or Senate seat in NH since 2006.  I think we’re going to take him down and I think it will be fun.

Richard Burr  (R-NC)

Had a close race in 2004 in a state that just went for Obama.  We’ve got a decent shot at him

Arlen Specter  (R-PA)

Specter is a cancer survivor who will be 80 years old if he chooses to run in 2010.  I don’t think he’s going to run again, which leaves the seat wide open.  Word is that Chris Matthews is considering running for that seat, which should be surreal.

John Thune  (R-SD)

Very close (and ugly) race in 2004.  Might be vulnerable in 2010.

Pick up opportunities for Republicans:

Ken Salazar  (D-CO)

Salazar won by a slim 4-point margin in 2004, but Colorado seems to be trending blue.  While it’s a possible pick-up for Republicans, it’s not a likely one

Obviously, anything can happen between now and 2010 and there’s probably stuff happening at local levels that I haven’t found out about yet, but I think this presents some real opportunities for us to improve on current gains and achieve the supermajority we didn’t quite get this time around.

1. Fill in the blank. The countries in NAFTA are: _______________________.

2. Africa is a:

(a) continent

(b) country.

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Now that we know who won, we also know that our Democratic electors will be the ones to cast Vermont's three electoral votes for Barack Obama.

To recap, our three electors are:

Euan Bear (Windsor Franklin County Chair)

Sen. Claire Ayer (Addison County)

and Kevin Christie (Windsor County–also an Obama delegate to Denver).

They'll be meeting in Montpelier on December 15. It's purely ceremonial, but in a historic year like this, a little ceremony is certainly in order.

Cross posted at Rational Resistance:

 There is lots of great feeling today, and with good reason. I do think it's worthwhile, though, to keep in mind what the Obama haters are saying. It tells us what we'll be up against in the coming four or eight years. I assume there are any number of places to find this information, but I'm going back to the old reliable Facebook group, Anti-Obama and Damn Proud of it.

One particular point comes from the morning of Election Day, from the status line of a member's page:

[User] is disgusted and not optimistic about todays outcome.

Now think about this for a minute, and consider what it means. “Unhappy”? Okay. “Worried”? Why not? But “disgusted”? What would give rise to a feeling of disgust or revulsion? It seems pretty obvious to me that a policy disagreement can't make you disgusted. A visceral reaction like disgust comes from something else, and if it's not disagreement with Obama's political positions, what is left? That's right, the reaction that someone “disgusting” like him has no business getting elected president. This really seems like a pretty blatant expression of racism.

But that's just one person. Let's see what some of the rest of them are saying:

I doubt he will make it through his first term, let alone a second term. I'm hoping for an early Christmas present this year, if anyone knows what I'm thinking.

🙁
our country is fucked in the ass, we arent gonna have any rights left, im not racist but osama obama is gonna fuck this county up, we're gonna be as important as canada soon

There are more bright spots than dark ones. Still, the fact that these people are willing to talk about the assassination of our newly elected president, or seceding, demonstrates that we have a long road ahead of us.

My America kicked your “Real Amerikkka’s” ass!

According to Nancy Remsen of the Burlington Free Press,

Tim Ashe of Burlington, who ran as both a Democrat and Progressive, will take a seat in the Senate, he learned Wednesday after a night of uncertainty.

An incorrect number in Ashe’s vote count for one ward had put Ashe in seventh place in the Chittenden senate district race. There are just six seats.

After the vote tally was corrected Wednesday, Ashe moved up ahead of Democrat Denise Barnard of Richmond.

The six Chittenden senate winners and their vote counts are as follows:

   * Doug Racine, 44,675

   * Ed Flanagan, 38,927

   * Ginny Lyons, 35,801

   * Diane Snelling, 32,322

   * Hinda Miller, 31,395

   * Tim Ashe, 28,048

Congratulations Tim!

No, the problem is not with Burlington’s voting system, but state law according to Burlington CFO Jonathan Leopold and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz.

According to WCAX, State Law forbids a city, town or district to release any numbers if votes do not tally correctly with number ballots.

Burlington had to hand count more than 20,000 ballots to look for write-ins, and legally was not allowed to release any numbers until all ballots were counted according to state law.  

Secretary of State Deb Markowitz noted that Burlington did it right this time.  She added that maybe it is time to change the law which pre-dated scanners and was written when all ballots were hand counted.  Markowitz said that preliminary numbers could be released if the statute is changed, with notation that the numbers are preliminary.

Consider: Anthony Pollina’s fortunes improved after the much-maligned decision to drop the “Progressive” label and run as an Independent. A move I suggested at the time was a good notion in principle, but was ill-timed. Now it’s no doubt the major reason for Pollina’s inching into the 20’s was Symington’s collapse, but I suspect the Independent label did indeed give him a boost after all.

Consider also: Progressive Burlington City Councilor Tim Ashe opted to run in the Democratic primary, got nominated, and as a result has apparently been elected over Denise Barnard.

Question: Are the Progressives ultimately destined to be more successful if they go back to being a movement (a la the old “Progressive Coalitions” that – gasp – even included people like me), rather than a Party?

After all, the solid showing of Pollina and the success of Ashe comes in contrast to the first decrease in the Progressive Party caucus in the Statehouse.

More evidence: Montpelier election results are always useful as a gauge of much of the left in the state, given the city’s dynamics. In Montpelier, Symington came in third place to Pollina and Douglas respectively. Progressive surge?

Then how to explain the Justice of the Peace races? Montpelier’s 15 slots were filled up first and foremost with the 13 Democrats who appeared on the ballot. The bottom two vote getters to pass the threshold to victory were two Progressives voted in from their slate of 11. This means that – despite the showing of Pollina – Progressives at this most grassroots level only picked up those two seats that there weren’t enough Dems to fill. This despite the fact that the Progressive JP ballot in the town was filled with high-profile A listers such as Ellen David and Stuart Friedman, Marj Power and former State Representative Steve Hingtgen – none of whom made the final cut.

Mixed signals? Contradictions?

Only if you’d rather not confront the message being delivered head on, as it contains harsh realities for both Democrats and Progressives.

So, what do you think – is it time to bring back the Progressive Coalitions?