It Gets Worse… Baxter to work to contain Mexico flu outbreak

See yesterday’s “White House Declares “Public Health Emergency” (Updated)” for background on the Swine Flu migration: http://greenmountaindaily.com/…

Now, according to breaking Chicago Tribune news,


Deerfield-based medical product giant Baxter International Inc. is working with the World Health Organization on a potential vaccine to curb the spread of the swine flu outbreak in Mexico, the company confirmed today.

Ironically, and according to the Toronto Sun back in February, Baxter “inadvertently released” samples of related viruses in shipments to four European countries along with samples of possible vaccines.  The company released live H5N1 avian flu viruses from its research facility in Orth-Donau, Austria, the Toronto Sun noted.

The contaminated product, a mix of H3N2 seasonal flu viruses and unlabelled H5N1 viruses, was supplied to an Austrian research company. The Austrian firm, Avir Green Hills Biotechnology, then sent portions of it to sub-contractors in the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Germany.

Now Baxter, which has a growing vaccine business, has allegedly been called in to help control and stop the spread of the alleged H1N1 virus in Mexico.  How ironic that the very multinational corporation that lost control of several related viruses only 2 months ago is called in as the savior to help bring the swine flu H5N1 virus under control.  How do we know that they also have not lost control of other viruses in the past, or that other subsidiary labs have not lost control of this H1N1 virus?

According to tonight’s the Tribune breaking news:  Baxter has

worked with foreign countries in the past to develop vaccines for the H5N1 virus commonly known as bird flu. Baxter has a cell-based technology that allows the company to more rapidly produce vaccines in the event of a pandemic than a decades-old method that uses eggs to process vaccines and can take weeks or even months longer.

“Upon learning about the swine flu outbreak in Mexico yesterday, Baxter requested a virus sample from WHO to do laboratory testing for potentially developing an experimental vaccine,” company spokesman Christopher Bona told the Tribune this afternoon. “Baxter has research and development and manufacturing pandemic planning expertise to rapidly develop candidate vaccines against potentially emerging influenza viruses.”

I find it ironic that the corporation developing vaccines against this virus lost control of the related viruses only 2 months ago when it inadvertently shipped the live virus out to at least 4 laboratories working to create a vaccine against this virus.

Now Baxter International has stepped forward as the Corporation most likely to fix it all with its magical vaccine process.  Seems all too cozy to me.  Either, Baxter International will be the savior of the world from the terrible swine flu pandemic, thus doing a great job for its stockholders, the stock market, and the pharmaceutical industry in general, or Baxter will help to cover up the corporate errors that first caused this swine flu.  That could be the “inadvertent” release of the viruses it was creating and studying, or it could be the Mexican based pig farm in close proximity to a small Mexican town.



What’s your take?

White House Declares “Public Health Emergency” (Updated)

The rapidly spreading swine flu, which fist appeared early last week in Mexico, caused the White House to declare a “Public Health Emergency” this afternoon.

—————–

UPDATE What caused this man-made disease?

For the record, I am not implying any type of conspiracy theory.  However, I am pointing a finger at lax security protocols and/or corporate greed.  

From what I have read during the past 2 days coupled with what I’ve researched over several years and now with updated swine flu reports, I believe that this virus is most likely the result of human activity.  It could be caused by scientists studying viruses in attempts to produce vaccines or from unsanitary factory farms, which decimate the environment and communities surrounding them.  These factories have entire lakes filled with pig feces and are leaching into the surrounding water table, are the cause of this “created” virus.

Unsanitary factory farms contaminate ground water.  Unsanitary conditions and a lack of clean water create a breeding ground and facilitate the spread of infectious disease.  Just two weeks ago for example in Mexico City,

about five million people, or a quarter of the population of Mexico City’s urban sprawl, woke up with dry taps

, according to Time Magazine. http://www.time.com/time/world…

The drought was caused by the biggest stoppage in the city’s main reservoir system in recent years to ration its depleting supplies.

More after the jump.

Vermont Natural Resources Council is currently showing the film Blue Gold – World Water Wars for its Second Annual Terry Ehrich Film Series.  The Vermont premier of the film Blue Gold: World Water Wars (based on the internationally acclaimed book by water activist Maude Barlow)is running April 26th – June 18th.  I saw it last night, and it speaks to the issue of water contamination and privatization of our precious water resources.  See it!  Go to http://www.vnrc.org/article/vi… to see a clip and schedule.

Whichever scenario turns out to be the true:  factory farms contaminating ground water or lax protocols at independent labs, it is unlikely we will know the truth for months or even years, if at all.  The responsible corporations or the government protection of biological laboratories will fight to obfuscate all inquiries in an effort to protect the involved corporations and/or governments from liability.

http://tinyurl.com/c4dcmc

According to Guardian, UK’s article, “The swine flu crisis lays bare the meat industry’s monstrous power


The Mexico swine flu outbreak should alert us to a highly globalised industry with global political clout.  The Mexican swine flu, a genetic chimera probably conceived in the faecal mire of an industrial pigsty, suddenly threatens to give the whole world a fever. The initial outbreaks across North America reveal an infection already travelling at higher velocity than did the last official pandemic strain, the 1968 Hong Kong flu.

Other documents support that there has been a significant increase in the number of viral labs throughout the world.  I am unable to locate a story I read last year, that just in the US alone, the number of small pharmacological labs studying various viruses and trying to develop vaccines has increased in number 20 times.  These labs were granted permits by the Bush Administration, however, no specific standards are in place for regulating the labs or delineating the protocols necessary to make sure that no viruses under research escape.  I searched my computer and bookmarks and unfortunately cannot locate either that particular link or that story.

But although I am unable to find that particular story, the following stories from the NY Times substantiate what I am saying.  I believe we must change the world health paradigm by cleaning up our environment, using clean, natural and organic farming techniques, having plenty of clean drinking water available for all people and minimizing the production of man-made viruses as well as the alleged magic bullet of vaccines or emergency drugs our pharmaceutical companies are creating to fight them.  

The drugs used to fight viruses and bacterial diseases are not without significant side-effects and risks, and the West’s extensive reliance on germ-fighting solutions are creating drug resistant viruses and bacteria.  Let’s hope that today’s Mexican Swine Flu reality does not become the dreaded world pandemic, and let’s use this incident to begun to make the changes that doctors and scientists throughout the world have been recommending!

New York Times By JANE PERLEZ  Published: August 6, 2007

LONDON, Aug. 5 –

British health inspectors combed two veterinary laboratories in southern England on Sunday after it was discovered that the strain of foot-and-mouth disease at a farm four miles away was the same as the one used in the production of vaccine at the facilities.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08…

NY Times September 30, 2003 THE DOCTOR’S WORLD; On Guard Against SARS, Inside the Laboratory and Out

By LAWRENCE K. ALTMAN, M.D.

In their vigil for a possible return of SARS, health officials have focused mainly on finding where the virus hides in nature.

But the case of severe acute respiratory syndrome in a 27-year-old doctoral student in Singapore has shown an equally important risk — escape of the virus from a laboratory.

The case adds to thousands of other infections accidentally acquired in a laboratory over the years.

Last week, a World Health Organization committee that investigated the case concluded that the student most likely became infected in August through contamination in a laboratory where he worked on another virus.

”Inappropriate laboratory standards and a cross-contamination of West Nile virus samples with SARS coronavirus in the laboratory led to the infection of the doctoral student,” the committee reported.

In a separate incident that occurred after the Singapore case was detected, the Chinese University of Hong Kong halted work on growing the SARS virus, officials said last week.

University workers followed the standards for the second-highest security laboratory, known as a BSL-3 facility. But some equipment they used did not meet security standards.

The findings underscore that a laboratory can be a hazardous place for workers and potentially for the public unless the staff members are disciplined and trained to prevent accidental infection.

Although the Singapore student did not transmit the virus to other people, and no infection is known to have resulted from the problem in Hong Kong, experts view these incidents as a wake-up call.

They point to gaps that exist in putting biosafety standards into practice, even in high-tech countries and prestigious universities.

For example, Yale has experienced two accidents. In 1969, a laboratory worker who helped discover the Lassa fever virus at Yale died of an accidental infection. In 1994, another Yale researcher survived infection with the Sabia virus, a cause of hemorrhagic fever.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/09…

Attorney Michael Carroll took seven years to research and write his expose of the US Germ Laboratory on Plum Island near New York.  Carroll convincingly alleges that “Lab 257” is the reason that both Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus have infected so many.  His book is an eye opening and disturbing read.  It also had enough of an impact that Homeland Security is building a new lab facility out in Kansas and plans to close Plum Island ASAP. (see below)

From Amazon:  

Lab 257: The Disturbing Story of the Government’s Secret Plum Island Germ Laboratory (Hardcover)

by Michael C. Carroll

http://www.amazon.com/Lab-257-Disturbing-Governments-Laboratory/dp/0060011416/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1240866484&sr=1-1

Amazon.com Review

That the United States government engaged in dangerous biological research during World War II will come as no surprise to Americans jaded by revelations of secret medical experiments and radiation exposures. But that the accident-plagued facility where it happened–and continues to happen–is just off the coast of Long Island may alarm many readers of Michael Christopher Carroll’s Lab 257. Carroll, an attorney by trade, gamely takes on complex microbiology and shady government record-keeping in telling the story of Plum Island, home of the Animal Disease Center–no place for a casual picnic. The lab, initially set up by the Army to research ways of destroying Soviet farm animals (and to keep them from destroying ours), has often dealt with bacteria and viruses that can be passed from animals to humans. Carroll draws compelling causal links between Plum Island and the introduction of Lyme disease, West Nile virus, and duck enteritis, all non-native germs that wreaked sudden havoc in North America, and all germs that Plum Island scientists were allegedly working with…

From Publishers Weekly: This strong first effort by New York lawyer Carroll centers on a U.S. government biological research center devoted to studying such exotic and virulent diseases as African swine fever, Rift Valley fever, foot-and-mouth disease and West Nile virus. Plum Island is quietly nestled a mere two miles off of Long Island, 85 miles from New York City, and Carroll argues convincingly that the island is dangerously insecure. Based on sedulous research into declassified government files and interviews with Plum Island scientists and employees, he offers clear and convincing evidence that Plum Island is rife with the potential for a catastrophic disaster eith?r from an accident or, equally frightening, terrorist action. Carroll raises two chilling questions: Is there a connection between Lyme disease and Plum Island research? (Old Lyme, Conn., the location of the disease’s initial 1975 outbreak, is close to Plum Island.) And what about West Nile virus, which also suddenly appeared in close proximity to Plum Island?

It seems that the US Department of Homeland Security has taken Carroll’s Lab 257 to heart as they are planning a brand new high security viral lab in Kansas.  See http://www.ens-newswire.com/en… for the whole story.


Wherever it is built, the high-security facility will replace Plum Island Animal Disease Center on Plum Island, New York, the only location in the United States for research on the live virus that causes foot-and-mouth disease.

The Department of Homeland Security has oversight of Plum Island, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture conducts the research there on foreign animal diseases.

Homeland Security has determined that the existing facility on Plum Island is too small and too old to meet new research needs. The facility also is not appropriate for research on zoonotic disease at biosafety level 4, according to the department and it will be closed once the new facility is operational.

In early December, Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate released the final environmental impact statement for the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility. The directorate will publish a formal record of decision on January 12, 2009. Facility design is expected to begin this year, with construction to begin in 2010. Plans call for the facility to be operational by 2015.

The new facility will provide the environment suitable for study of virulent diseases that can be transferred from animals to humans such as:

   * Foot and Mouth Disease: Viral disease of domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals; acute disease characterized by fever, lameness, and vesicular lesions on the feet, tongue, mouth and teats; FMD is considered to be one of the most contagious, infectious diseases known; cost estimates of an introduction of FMD in the U.S. are more than $37 billion.

   * Classical Swine Fever: Wild and domestic swine are the only known natural reservoir; widespread throughout the world and has the potential to cause devastating epidemics, particularly in countries free of the disease; any outbreak of CSF would have serious consequences for domestic and international trade of swine and swine products; improved countermeasures are needed.

   * African Swine Fever: Infected animals have high mortality rates; effective countermeasures are not available for infected animals; no vaccines are available to prevent infection; no treatment exists for ASF and countermeasures need improvements.

   * Rift Valley Fever: Virus affects human beings and cloven-hoofed animals (sheep, goats, cattle, camels, buffalo and deer); suitable countermeasures to respond in the U.S. do not exist; risk for establishment of endemic disease; ranked as a major disease of concern with USDA, DHS, and other stakeholders.

   * Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia: Caused by an infective microorganism (Mycoplasma mycoides); primarily affects cattle including European-bred cattle and Zebu; a related form can affect goats; may survive for days in the environment; no treatment available.

   * Japanese Encephalitis Virus: Similar to St. Louis encephalitis virus; JE virus is amplified in the blood of domestic pigs and wild birds; the virus can infect humans, most domestic animals, birds, bats, snakes and frogs.

   * Nipah Virus – Biosecurity Level 4: Virus was discovered in 1999; causes disease in swine and in humans through contact with infectious animals; mode of transmission between animals and from animals to humans is uncertain (appears to require close contact with infected tissues or body fluids); caused respiratory disease and encephalitis in people in Malaysia and Singapore; no drug therapies have yet been proven to be effective in treating Nipah infection; no countermeasures exist.

• Hendra Virus – Biosecurity Level 4: Formerly called equine morbillivirus; first isolated in 1994; the natural reservoir for Hendra virus is still under investigation; human beings and equines seem to be predominately affected; caused respiratory and neurological disease in horses and humans in Australia.

Mexico eclipses Egypt on flu news tracking on with ManagingNews, as media awakes to Mexican Swine Flu map here http://is.gd/uERE

According to the White House:  “We expect to see more cases of swine flu,” Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said at a White House briefing. Besser, who was addressing reporters along with other Obama administration officials, said that over time, “more severe” cases of disease are likely to surface. He said that officials so far have identified 20 cases in eight states.

John Brennan, assistant to President Barack Obama for Homeland Security, said the president is monitoring the situation “very closely” and receiving regular updates and briefings.

Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano called the declaration of a public health emergency “standard operating procedure,” saying it would help the government better marshal its resources against the disease.

It is Napolitano’s statement and the word out that the DOD has Tamiflu ready to transport that really concerns me.  According to BBC, the swine flu virus is a conglomeration of several flu viruses.  Tamiflu has a slim chance of having any effect at all against such a virulent strain of co-mingled viruses.  Tamiflu was the flu drug that the US bought in bulk while Donald Rumsfeld was Secretary of Defense.  At the time, Rumsfeld neglected to inform the public or Congress that he held considerable stock in Roche Pharmaceuticals which was marketing the drug.

You figure it out.  According to sources,

The new Mexican Swine Flu has elements of DNA from the following: avian flu, human flu Type A, human flu Type B, Asian swine flu, and European swine flu.  It is strange that both human and animal viruses from other continents have suddenly produced a new flu during a non-flu season and spreads from human-to-human with a 10% fatality rating.

See official CDC swine flu updates at cdc.gov/swineflu.  The site has been viewed more than 1 Million times on Sat: http://bit.ly/kgu8l #swineflu

More below the fold…

The CDC says the symptoms are similar to regular flu and include: fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing in mild cases. More severe cases of swine flu include runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.

According to Britain’s The Independent

Donald Rumsfeld has made a killing out of bird flu. The US Defence Secretary has made more than $5m (£2.9m) in capital gains from selling shares in the biotechnology firm that discovered and developed Tamiflu, the drug being bought in massive amounts by Governments to treat a possible human pandemic of the disease.

More than 60 countries have so far ordered large stocks of the antiviral medication – the only oral medicine believed to be effective against the deadly H5N1 strain of the disease – to try to protect their people. The United Nations estimates that a pandemic could kill 150 million people worldwide.

Britain is about halfway through receiving an order of 14.6 million courses of the drug, which the Government hopes will avert some of the 700,000 deaths that might be expected. Tamiflu does not cure the disease, but if taken soon after symptoms appear it can reduce its severity.

The drug was developed by a Californian biotech company, Gilead Sciences. It is now made and sold by the giant chemical company Roche, which pays it a royalty on every tablet sold, currently about a fifth of its price.

Mr Rumsfeld was on the board of Gilead from 1988 to 2001, and was its chairman from 1997. He then left to join the Bush administration, but retained a huge shareholding.

A blogger calls the question

A week or so back, “Turkana” posted the following user diary at dKos. It’s strongly worded, direct and well-spoken – like a good political blog post should be. And it’s very provocative. It calls the question lingering in the back of a lot of folks’ minds after the so-called “tea party” demonstrations on the 15th.

Do I think he’s onto something? Absolutely. Do I think it’s quite as straightforward as this? I’d have to say ‘no.’ Is that my discomfort talking, rather than my powers of rational observation?

You decide (reprinted with permission).

They Hate Him Because He Is “Black”

by Turkana

Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 10:34:53 AM PDT

I deliberately use the word black rather than the words African American. The latter lacks the proper emotional value. It is cultural and geographical. The former is visceral. Bigotry is not subtle. It is primal. It is not about ideas. It is irrational.

He is smarter and more educated and more articulate than they. A self-made man, he represents everything they would claim to value. But he looks different, to them. They hate him because he looks different. They hate him because he is dark. In “Western” “Culture,” the very words black and dark have powerfully negative value. They often are used as synonyms for the sinister.

Continued after the fold…

They hated President Clinton, and tried to destroy him. But one of their elected governors didn’t talk secession. They didn’t talk revolution. They didn’t attempt (and miserably fail) to launch nationwide protests against him. Bill Clinton was a lot of things. He was not black.

President Obama is no crazy liberal. He is increasing defense spending. Even Alan Greenspan is suggesting economic solutions more akin to “socialism.” Gun lovers have nothing to fear. On policy grounds, we crazy liberals have been criticizing him from day one. The radical right have been lambasting him. With the nation fighting two wars and an economic meltdown, they openly hope he fails. But they are not about policy. They are about hatred. And they hate Obama as they have never hated any president. It’s not complicated.

The Department of Homeland Security just warned:

Right-wing extremists have capitalized on the election of the first African American president, and are focusing their efforts to recruit new members, mobilize existing supporters, and broaden their scope and appeal through propaganda, but they have not yet turned to attack planning.

“Extremist” is now a corporate media phenomenon. Glenn Beck? Rush Limbaugh? Ann Coulter? Bill O’Reilly? Faux News?

They hate him not because of policy or politics. They hate him because of who he is. Not like them. By the color of his skin. It’s time to stop pretending or excusing or evading the obvious. They hate him because he is black!

Update [2009-4-16 15:43:21 by Turkana]: From kos’s front page post: Georgia’s State Senate, by near unanimous vote, threatens to secede. I don’t recall that happening, under President Clinton, either…

Vermont’s pharmaceutical reporting trade secrets provision

 Vermont’s pharmaceutical marketing reporting laws have gotten tougher but if the law allows the pharmaceutical industry to keep secret limited information, such as donations to support academic research how complete is it? Making public the amount and methods of donations to support academic research is a very large part of the funding puzzle disclosure. The trade secret provision is said to shield about 80 percent of the information on these relationships. Explaining how much drug industry money flows to medical universities and institutions would show consumers how and why drugs studies are managed the way they are. A British Medical Journal article from 2003 reviewed 30 studies published in journals and found that a  “systematic bias favors products which are made by the company funding the research,”and the pharmaceutical company Wyeth was just exposed for paying ghostwriters to publish journal articles.

Vermont Attorney General Sorrel says of the research reporting loop hole,from the documents he has seen the marketing budgets for the pharmaceutical companies “dwarf” their research and development budgets.” The law is really on the companies’ side right now,”

Governor Douglas commented about his view of opening this area to sunlight.

He expressed support for the bill (with the exclusion of research reporting) during his weekly Statehouse press conference this week – as long as the bill doesn’t interfere with Vermont’s growing biotechnology sector.

Curiously he added “As a general rule, the more disclosure the better,”

Suggested follow-up question for Gov. Jim: “In what way might funding disclosure interfere with Vermont’s new growing biotech sector?

http://www.timesargus.com/arti…

More birds of Spring: big pictures of tiny birds.

The Ruby-Crowned Kinglet is less than four and a half inches long.  

I rock.

                               


                               

Okay, quite a few new birds in the past week: more warblers, new sparrows and, as lineatus and I both posted this week (hers and mine), Osprey.

After the fold, lots of photos of birds big and small, all of which are clickable to larger versions.

Hermit Thrush

                               

Northern Mockingbird

                               

Dark-eyed junco

                               

Black-Capped Chickadee

                               

Great Blue Heron

                               


                               

Green Heron (first I’ve seen this year)

                               

Wood Ducks

                               

Bar-headed Goose

                               

Bar-Headed Goose

                               

Tree Sparrow

                               

Song Sparrow

                               

White-Throated Sparrow

                               

Savannah Sparrow

                               

Turkey Vultures

                               


                               


                               

Bald Eagle

                               

Purple Finch

                               

Killdeer

                               

Common Grackle

                               

Pine Siskin

                               

Blue-Headed Vireo

                               

Rose-breasted grosbeak

                               

Palm Warbler

                               


                               


                               

Black-and-White warbler

                               

Yellow-rumped warbler

                               

Osprey

                               


                               

Mystery bird

                               


                               

Northern Flickers in mating displays

                               


                               

Downy Woodpecker

                               

As usual, feel free to treat this as an open birding/bird photography thread.

“businesses against tax hikes” claim inability to pay, but give heavily to Republicans

Don’t know if anyone noticed the (albeit small) presser presented by small businesses against any revenue proposals to solve the budget crisis. But, it’s hard to take the so-called representatives of small businesses seriously when the spokespersons speaking against a tiny income tax increase (about 50 cents per month to the average Vermont taxpayer) are giving hundreds and thousands of dollars to Jim Douglas and the Republican Party.

A cursory search of the Secretary of State campaign finance disclosure reports showed:

Bart Frisbie gave at least $3,250 in contributions to the Governor alone.

Blair Enman and/or Enman Engineering gave at least $200 to Gov. Douglas

Rene Laberge gave at least $200 to Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie.

Shawn Shouldice Banfield (the lobbyist/organizer behind the news conference) personally gave at least $400 to Lt. Gov. Dubie.

Amanda Ibey’s PAC, HOME PAC gave $300 to “Friends of the Republican Party” and at least $1000 to Gov. Douglas

William Driscoll’s group, Associated Industries of Vermont gave at least $1000 to Friends of the Republican Party

Nobody would ever suggest that these folks don’t have a right to contribute to whoever they wish. But, it is disingenuous at best to suggest they cannot afford a very modest income tax increase when these folks are literally giving away hundreds and thousands of dollars to their conservative friends at the highest levels of state government. Something doesn’t add up.

When most people understand they could save hundreds of jobs, preserve essential services and institutions, avoid a massive cost-shift onto their local community (and avoid a worsening of the recession for that matter) by contributing a dollar here and there, they overwhelmingly support a small tax increase, or a tax increase on those with the greatest ability to pay.

We don’t have time, we have children.” – Eileen De Los Reyes

My friend Audrey has one of the most important jobs I know: she's a public school teacher. She's just started a blog about her experiences and what she's learning about inequality and how we need to raise our children so we'll have the kind of humane society many of us are trying to get to.  

I love this blog. It's smart and personal, and you can really see how much she loves her kids, and why they love her. I'll definitely be going back.

Let’s Talk Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Isn’t it refreshing to be able to talk concretely about the candidates for Governor so early in the cycle?

So its been months since the Favoritism/Voter File kerfuffle, and by all accounts, all are playing by the same rules and the Welch and Leahy offices are taking care not to get too close to it all. But to say the nascent scramble for the Democratic nomination for Governor has quieted down would be a big mistake.

Deb Markowitz supporters have been out talking down the very notion of a primary (which is so unbelievably wrong – a Primary is the medicine we need – after all, the last few cycles of anointed candidates hasn’t turned out so well… but I digress…). Meanwhile, Anthony Pollina and Doug Racine were spotted Thursday morning at a Montpelier coffeehouse discussing… well, it’s not hard to speculate. Both Markowitz and Racine are raising money (although Markowitz and a more prodigious rate, from all accounts), both have paid staffers (Markowitz a Campaign Manager and Racine a fundraiser). Peter Shumlin has managed to become an almost daily presence in the news, and almost always in a pro-active policy context, rather than playing defense to the Governor. And if all that’s not enough, the topic is also the only political subject anybody wants to talk about.

Still the better part of two years from the election, Vermonters are in uncharted territory. The old rulebook has been thrown out, largely replaced by the rulebook that the rest of the country has been using for some time, and it all makes for interesting observation, speculation and conversation.

I’ve found myself close to supporting a candidate, and then backed off again. It is, after all, very early. Still, I may well gravitate towards a clearer preference, which would limit the number and type of diaries I could really post on the matter. But like everyone, for me its about balancing an equation with roughly four variables; candidates’ stances on policy, how electable the candidate is, how serious the candidate is about the race and questions of character. Sprinkle in to that equation each candidate’s unique qualities (whatever they may be), and you’ve probably got the breakdown of the roadmap we all use – although each of us as individuals weight the value of those variables differently.

So follow after the fold and let’s take a quick snapshot of the four likeliest candidates and where they land in this equation (leaving off character, which is not only the most subjective of all the variables, its also – obviously – a touchier, more complicated one that I’d rather not encourage a flamewar in the comments section about)…


Candidate:
Bartlett
Markowitz
Racine
Shumlin
Policy:
In the right place on social issues, definitely among the more fiscally conservative of Dems. Early signs are she’d run as someone who could peel moderate Dems back from Douglas, which suggests a run to the right, but isn’t sending clear signals yet
No policy record, which is both a weakness and a strength, depending on how she and her opponents play it. Has been telling a lot of folks that she is more conservative than they think, sometimes even sounding a bit apologetic. Focusing on the middle/right end of the Dem spectrum seems to be the early election strategy.
Pretty strong lefty policy record (with some deviations) – identifies strongly with small business interests. Already looking to consolidate and shore up the left behind him
Has been piling up the policy headlines like a house afire. Will try to shore up the pragmatic, socially-liberal, fiscally-responsible meme with a record of victories and the associated alliances that come with them.
Electability:
Would likely depend on persuasion – that on the issues and in head to head comparisons, she will win over swing voters.
Money: Is already on the way to breaking fundraising records (hubbub is she wants to raise a phenomenal $250k by this summer’s reporting period). Looking to raise an amazing $2 million, which would be a massive advantage. Will present herself as a more competent manager than Douglas
Math: If he matches his previous numbers against Douglas and Hogan, but can add onto that total from his since-increased electoral clout in the Chittenden suburbs such as Essex and South Burlington (where he runs stronger than any other Senator), it’s over. Most likely to keep a Prog out of the race as well.
Has experience with a statewide campaign and will likely try to leverage relationships he’s made through high profile policy battles with the Governor into enough increased support to win.
Seriousness:
She sounds serious, but as Senate Appropriations Chair, has a particularly hard challenge in looking like a candidate until after the session. Will that be too late for her to get involved, or if she’s counted out early, does that create room for an underdog resurgence later – perhaps in the fall?
Clearly has a campaign plan and is acting week to week on it. Has called every potential major donor in the state so often, people are starting to chuckle about it (and I’m not saying that’s a bad thing – it’s impressive). Maybe gambling too much on her ability to scare the others out of a primary, where move to the right could otherwise hurt.
Has a special burden after previous unsuccessful campaign to show folks he’s serious early, and has not yet done that to the satisfaction of many who have supported him in the past. Further hamstrung by organizational/strategic comparisons to the  better-funded Markowitz, although it’s clear he’s in this all the way.
Keeping too mum on his intentions at this point to really judge, but is generating more solid press through his position in the Senate than the other three combined.
Unique qualities (good and bad):

     

Pro: Can have a real no-nonsense, straight-talking quality when she gets going. Could appeal to primary voters.

     

Con: Only one in the crowd who’s never been on a statewide ballot. Fundraising will be tough

   


     

Pro: Has a coalition of supporters from the very liberal (Linthilac/Stetson) to conservative (rumor is that Harlan Sylvester is a supporter… interesting if true).

     

Con: Has been chummy enough with Douglas that many legislators are annoyed.

   


     

Pro: Uniquely appreciated among both liberal constituency groups and many in the business community.

     

Con: Has the baggage of his failure to be promoted from Lt. Governor to Governor (and related questions of his toughness) hanging over him.

   


     

Pro: Best person in the state on the stump this side of Bernie. Can raise a lot of money quickly

     

Con: Generates stronger negative feelings among his detractors than the others.

   

Do some Democrats only care about labor’s money?

( – promoted by odum)

A great opinion piece from The Wall Street Journal, of all places:

http://tr.im/jvQJ

The writer asks an important question – why does labor frequently get short shrift when unions have been steadfast supporters of the Democratic Party for many years?  When times were tough, they’ve been there.  When times were great, they’ve been there.  And, yet, many left-leaning establishment elites continually act in ways that are unfriendly to workers.  

For a current example, look no further than key Employee Free Choice Act defectors Sens. Blanche Lincoln and Dianne Feinstein, as well as the supposedly Democratic lobbyists steering Wal-Mart’s anti-EFCA onslaught.  

Vermont Yankee false alarm

The Red Dwarf TV show featured the ships main computer controller Holly repeating over and over in an emotionless voice “Emergency,we’re having an emergency ,we’re having an emergency ! It’s still going on ,emergency!”

The constant news of Vermont Yankee problems in the face of the NRC’s high marks given to the plant have that unanswered alarm quality.No end appears in sight,it’s still going on .Think also of last week’s proposal by Governor Douglas to abolish state nuclear safety planners jobs. Entergy’s aging power plant with “human performance”  issues and equipment problems (two radioactive leaks in six months was it ?) is an accident in waiting. A false reading or alarm could lead to an inappropriate or unnecessary response. Per usual, no problem at all according the NRC official .

“This does not rise to the level of safety,” said NRC spokesman Neil Sheehan, but said the “false alarm” triggered an emergency response closing valves to contain the increased levels of radiation.

“They got a signal that there was a spike in radiation, and it shut the valves. What’s important is they had all these valves close,”

In actuality, Sheehan said, there was no increase in radiation.

The radiation alarm problem was not mentioned last week when the NRC officials were in the state to go over Vermont Yankee’s annual assessment, which gave the Vernon reactor high marks.

Sheehan said he was not sure the problem was not discussed.

http://www.rutlandherald.com/a…