(Michael McCarthy is a candidate for Senate in Franklin County, challenging Randy Brock. – promoted by Sue Prent)

I was lucky enough to be able to promote my campaign for State Senate on the Charlie, Ernie and Lisa show this morning, just before Brian Dubie and Peter Shumlin started going at it for the first time in a live debate.

Listening now I am so excited to hear Peter call B-Dubs out on his tax proposals. Brian Dubie keeps trying to link the override of the governor’s veto with a tax hike last year. Peter countered that the only people who had a tax increase in the plan that passed were Vermonter’s making over $350K per year.

Peter pointed out that Brian’s only specific tax proposal was a “George W. Bush tax policy” of cutting taxes for the wealthiest Vermonter’s. Brian kept reiterating that the override of the veto on the most recent budget was an example of Peter supporting a tax increase. Whose math is he using?

We need policies that really benefit small businesses (really small businesses, not just businesses with big payrolls and corporate connections). We need leadership that understands state budget and taxes. We need a commitment to environmental protection and healthcare reform. I think Peter Shumlin is that leader, especially after listening this morning.

Now that Brian Dubie has a specific, named, general election opponent, it’s probably time to summarize the week in Dubie.  First, we get the broken record of Dubie’s great big master plan, from the Rutland Herald, Dubie champions tax cuts as cure for economic woes, in which the following is noted:

Details of Republican Brian Dubie’s plan to cut income tax rates by about a third are sparse. But an unofficial analysis by the Legislature’s Joint Fiscal Office – done at the behest of a prominent Democratic lawmaker – suggests the proposal initially could cost the state nearly a quarter-billion dollars annually in forgone revenue.

We also have, a piece by CJ Curtis here at Green Mountain Daily, Brian Dubie: Invisible Man, Invisible Plan, in which CJ notes:

The contrast between what Peter Shumlin and the Democrats offer and what Dubie is offering could not be more stark. Shumlin and the Democrats will help Vermont weather the Republican Recession by targeting help to Vermont businesses, maintaining essential services, avoiding lay-offs and stabilizing our workforce, while minimizing the harm to the most vulnerable in the budget. Dubie’s plan appears to be a series of slogans and nothing in the way of specifics with respect to what programs and services he will cut after his $250 million tax cut giveaway to the richest Vermonters. He is truly the “invisible man” with an “invisible plan.”

Also this week, Sue Prent wrote a piece about Doug Hoffer going after Dubie on tax cuts.  7 Days has more:

“It is disingenuous to talk about Vermont’s ‘income tax’ for the simple reason that Vermont does not have one income tax,” Hoffer wrote, in a press statement. “It has a progressive tax system so residents pay at very different rates depending on their income. I am certain Mr. Dubie knows this so it makes me wonder why he would use such language.”

What I particularly love about this is how precise and clear it is, in stark contrast to Brian Dubie’s plan, which as I noted before, is akin to this:

In the meantime, as much as Dubie likes to pretend that Vermont is bad for business, it’s clear that there are things about it that some businesses very much like, as noted in the Rutland Herald’s piece Organic Trade Association moving to Vermont:

Vermont has been a leader in organics, not just milk, cheese, vegetables and meat, she said, but also in “food to fiber to personal care products.” Almost four percent of food purchased in the United States is organic, she said.

“We just thought, Vermont walks the walk and talks the talk,” she said.

As our United candidates for Governor noted:

“Over the past 8 years we have been an extraordinary state with very ordinary leadership. Not enough has been done to spark the ingenuity and drive that Vermonters possess to make Vermont a center of innovation and job creation,” Markowitz said. While my four fellow Democrats and I were discussing issues of job creation, renewable energy, health care reform, saving our family farms, and improving our education system during this primary, Brian Dubie was spending his time and money advertising in the New York Times that Vermont is a bad place to do business. Brian has a very simple view of the very complex problems we face.”

It’s time to put someone in the Governor’s office who loves Vermont and sees what it can be, as opposed to trying to saddle us with ridiculously high deficits and running ads in out of state papers telling everyone why it’s bad to do business here.

Brian Dubie has finally released his so-called “economic plan” after taking the summer off  – he is truly the “invisible man” of Vermont politics (what other politician can you think of who would unveil the centerpiece of their campaign and then give the press 12 minutes to ask questions before bolting without providing any details – maybe in keeping with his latest “marathon” gimmick he could spend 26.2 minutes answering questions next time he calls a press conference). Meanwhile, the Democrats criss-crossed the state, met with voters to hear their concerns, honed their platforms and generally campaigned on ending the Bush-Douglas-Dubie recession through responsible balanced budgeting, comprehensive health care reform, and policies that encourage both employers and workers. Peter Shumlin won the primary fair and square and now the general election race is on.

The contrast between what Peter Shumlin and the Democrats offer and what Dubie is offering could not be more stark. Shumlin and the Democrats will help Vermont weather the Republican Recession by targeting help to Vermont businesses, maintaining essential services, avoiding lay-offs and stabilizing our workforce, while minimizing the harm to the most vulnerable in the budget. Dubie’s plan appears to be a series of slogans and nothing in the way of specifics with respect to what programs and services he will cut after his $250 million tax cut giveaway to the richest Vermonters. He is truly the “invisible man” with an “invisible plan.”

The good news for Peter Shumlin and the Democrats is that this election will be won or lost on the economy. And, they are going to make Dubie own the disastrous economy that he and Jim Douglas’ policies have foisted on Vermonters over the last 8 years. Dubie’s platitudes and unwillingness to disclose specifics on how he would balance the budget show he is not ready for prime-time, and that he has no real solution for what ails our economy. His “proposal” will usher in an era of permanent budget crisis that Vermonters cannot afford. In sum, the Dubie plan is simply “deficits as far as the eye can see.”

Vermonters must ask themselves: did Jim really = Jobs? If so, where are they? Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago? The vast majority of Vermonters are not. Brian Dubie is offering more of the same. We cannot afford the unfulfilled promises of the GOP and Brian Dubie. It’s time to give the Democrats a shot to turn our economy around ensuring Vermont is poised to take advantage of the recovery when it comes.

Obama has continued on with the state of emergency first put in place by Bush after the attacks of September 11, 2001. His reasoning?

Because the terrorist threat continues, the national emergency declared on September 14, 2001, and the powers and authorities adopted to deal with that emergency must continue in effect beyond September 14, 2010.

(US Office of Federal Register)

Nice … any guess on when the “threat” of another terrorist attack will subside?

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Doug Hoffer continues to demonstrate why he will bring greater credibility to the office of Auditor than it currently has under Tom Salmon.

With a watchful eye cast on the governor’s race, Doug is once again calling out Brian Dubie for telling the voters what might best be characterized as a whopper:  

“Vermonters have the highest property taxes in the country.”

As Doug points out, Mr. Dubie has misused Census data on state level property tax and conveniently ignored the fact that Vermont is the only state where education costs have been shifted to a statewide property tax, making the comparison Mr. Dubie is drawing completely without validity.   In fact, says Hoffer:

The figures do not account for the amount of property taxes paid by non-residents, which is an important consideration in a state ranked #2 in the percentage of vacation homes.  In 2007, the Joint Fiscal Office estimated that Vermont exported approximately $244 million in property taxes paid for second homes and commercial properties by non-residents.  If this is subtracted from the Census figure, Vermont drops down to 16th – quite a different story than “the highest in the country.”

Smarten up, Mr. Dubie, you’ve got the ultimate fact-checker hot on your trail.

(See below the jump for Doug’s complete comments.)

There he goes again.  A recent VPR story quoted Brian Dubie as saying “Vermonters have the highest property taxes in the country.”[1]  As with his comments about Vermont’s income taxes,[2] this statement is less than meets the eye.

First, Mr. Dubie is undoubtedly referring to Census data for state level property taxes.[3]  As has been reported many times (and as Mr. Dubie well knows), Vermont is the only state in the country that has shifted education costs to a statewide property tax.  As a result, statewide comparisons for this particular measure are meaningless.

When we look at state and local per capita property taxes Vermont ranks seventh behind NJ, WY, CT, NH, NY, and RI.[4]  But there is a fundamental problem with these figures.

The figures do not account for the amount of property taxes paid by non-residents, which is an important consideration in a state ranked #2 in the percentage of vacation homes.  In 2007, the Joint Fiscal Office estimated that Vermont exported approximately $244 million in property taxes paid for second homes and commercial properties by non-residents.  If this is subtracted from the Census figure, Vermont drops down to 16th – quite a different story than “the highest in the country.”

Important policy debates should be based on relevant facts, not figures intended to mislead.

Note: The Census Bureau acknowledges that state tax rankings can be misleading.[5]

1]    Wednesday 9.8.10[2    See my response at Seven Days (http://7d.blogs.com/blurt/2010/09/visions-of-an-auditor-to-come-hoffer-challenges-dubies-numbers.html) and vtdigger.com (http://vtdigger.org/2010/09/01/more-time-sir-um-probably-not/) .

3][4      Author’s calculations from Census data at http://www.census.gov/govs/est…

[5]    “The ranking tables should be interpreted with caution; analysis based on rankings or per capita statistics can be misleading and misinterpreted because of subtle yet important differences in state government organization and economic structure. For example, using total taxes or per capita taxes as a measure of tax burden on the citizens of that state can be misleading because different states use different approaches to taxation, comparing only the total taxes collected by each state is not enough to understand the economic impact of those states’ taxes – one must also understand how those taxes are collected. Comparing taxes across states can be difficult. The Census Bureau’s statistics on tax revenue reflect taxes a state collects from activity within the state, not necessarily from its people within a state. Alaska, for instance, does not have general sales taxes or individual income taxes, but it does collect severance taxes from companies that extract oil and natural gas. Like Alaska, Florida does not collect individual income taxes, instead Florida relies heavily on a general sales tax, which, because of its tourist industry, is partially supported by visitors from outside Florida. In that sense, both Alaska and Florida collect “exported taxes” – taxes from people or organizations that may reside outside of their state.”http://www2.census.gov/govs/statetax/2009stcmethodology.pdf#page=3

Kansas-Based Westboro Baptist Church, Which Has Drawn Much Controversy (and Lawsuits) Over Its Rabidly Homophobic Protests at Funerals of American Soldiers Killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, Says it Will Burn Copies of Muslim Holy Book if ‘Sissy Brats of Doomed America’ Persuade Jones into Calling Off His Planned Burning on 9/11 Anniversary, Which Is on Hold — For Now

UNYIELDING CULT A THREAT TO U.S. TROOPS? — A member of the rabidly anti-gay Westboro Baptist Church holds highly inflammatory signs in a recent protest at the funeral of a U.S. soldier killed in Afghanistan. Westboro, whose members are made up entirely of the family of its iron-willed leader, Fred Phelps, insist that U.S. troops’ deaths are “God’s punishment for America tolerating homosexuality.” Westboro has now vowed to burn copies of the Koran, the Islamic holy book, after the Rev. Terry Jones shelved plans to burn Korans outside his Pentacostalist church in Florida today (Saturday), the ninth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. (Photo: Getty Images)

(Posted 5:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, September 11, 2010)

(Updated 12:00 noon EDT Saturday, September 11, 2010)

By SKEETER SANDERS

A rabidly anti-gay Kansas-based cult — which has drawn nationwide outrage for staging protests at the funerals of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan — has vowed to burn copies of the Koran, now that the pastor of a fundamentalist church in Florida has put on hold his planned burning of the Muslim holy book that was scheduled for today (Saturday), the ninth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

In a press release posted Friday on its Web site, GodHatesFags.com, the Westboro Baptist Church announced that it will “burn the Koran and the doomed American flag” at noon local time today (1:00 p.m. EDT) at its headquarters in Topeka.

The cult branded Pastor Terry Jones of the Dove World Outreach Center in Gainesville, Florida a “false prophet” who allowed himself to be “bullied by sissy, intolerant rebels worldwide into cancelling plans to burn that blasphemous idol called the Koran.”

===============================

BULLETIN — PASTOR JONES NOW SAYS HE’LL ‘NEVER’ BURN KORANS

==============================    

FLORIDA PASTOR BACKS OFF AMID DIRE WARNINGS OF NEW WAVE OF TERROR ATTACKS

Amid worldwide outrage from Muslims and threats of violence, Jones announced Thursday that he was putting on hold his plans to burn copies of the Muslim holy book after receiving a telephone call from Defense Secretary William Gates, who, according to press reports, warned him that he and his followers would put the lives of U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan in “grave jeopardy” and urged him not to carry out his plans.

Meanwhile, the international police agency Interpol and the U.S. State Department issued warnings that terrorist attacks would likely increase around the world if the Koran burning went ahead.

Jones told reporters at a Thursday press conference that his decision not to carry out his planned Koran burning was prompted by assurances from a local Muslim imam that a controversial Islamic cultural center and mosque to be built two block away from Ground Zero — where the twin towers of the World Trade Center were destroyed by al-Qaida terrorists — would be moved to s site farther away.

But in New York, Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, who purchased the property last December on which the proposed center would be built, denied any such agreement. “I am glad that Pastor Jones has decided not to burn any Korans,” Feisal said in a statement. “However, I have not spoken to Pastor Jones or to Imam Musri [of Florida]. I am surprised by their announcement. We are not going to toy with our religion or any other. Nor are we going to barter. We are here to extend our hands to build peace and harmony.”

EXTREMELY HOMOPHOBIC WESTBORO UNLIKELY TO BE PERSUADED TO BACK DOWN

Unlike Pastor Jones, however, the Phelps clan at Westboro is unlikely to be persuaded to back down form its threat to burn Korans. In fact, the cult has burned the Muslim holy book before, in 2008. But at that time, their book-burning drew almost no media notice.

Westboro’s absolute hatred of homosexuality is what drives its highly controversial actions. It has drawn nationwide outrage for its protests at the funerals of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan — and is the defendant in a harassment lawsuit by the father of a soldier killed in Iraq that has gone all the way to the Supreme Court. The justices will hear arguments in the case when the high court begins its 2010-2011 term next month.

Westboro’s extreme homophobia is what also drives its hatred of Muslims. It openly accuses the Prophet Mohammed — without a shred of proof — of being a pedophile. In its announcement of its planned Koran burning today, the cult employs highly inflammatory language against not only Muslims, but also Catholics. “Like priests-rape-boys Catholicism, Islam is just another false religious system with a pedophile as its prophet,” the Westboro statement says. “You’re not supposed to be finding common ground with idolatrous perverts, but throwing down their altars, as God instructed!”

State and federal laws have been passed to keep Westboro picketers hundreds of feet away from the military funerals. But the cult is highly litigious: Shirley Phelps-Roper, the eldest daughter of pastor Fred Phelps, is an attorney and has filed numerous lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of those laws. She’s also countersued the plaintiff in the case now pending before the Supreme Court.

The cult was expelled in 1991 from the conservative Southern Baptist Convention in part for its extremist interpretations of the Bible and for its membership being exclusively of the Phelps family.

“We share concern over the unbiblical views and offensive tactics of Fred Phelps and his followers,” the SBC said in a statement posted on its Web site.  “His church is not in any way affiliated with the Southern Baptist Convention, and his extreme position not only stands in contrast to ours, more importantly they stand in contrast to God’s Word. . .”

# # #

Copyright 2010, Skeeter Sanders. All rights reserved.

I left the Chittenden County Courthouse with the last wave of counters.  What began in tumultuous uncertainty ended rather quietly: outcome expected.  As I headed toward the entrance ramp to I-89, a Monarch butterfly lurched drunkenly past my windshield, braving the cross-currents of car exhaust and prevailing winds.

Here’s what I am thinking this fine evening in Vermont:  I’m thinking “Congratulations” to Peter Shumlin. You won the nomination, fair-and-square. Our efforts to defeat Brian Dubie are yours to command.  Honor the reasonable expectations of all of us volunteers who served the other campaigns and you will have a formidable army of support that will carry you to the governor’s chair and through as many terms as you care to serve.

…And I’m thinking how cynical and counterproductive it would be now to ridicule the recount or the people who called for it.  Certainly, political insiders can tell you six ways ’til Sunday why it was statistically unlikely that the outcome would be otherwise; but a lot of ordinary voters who were deeply invested in their candidate and whom we must hope will carry that investment forward to the nominee, could not have done so enthusiastically without the validation provided by the recount.

Going forward, there will be those who are tempted to blame Doug Racine for every kink and snarl, every rainy day that the campaign encounters between now and November 2.  That’s bogus.  No one could have been more aware of that than Doug himself when he girded himself to request the recount; but he owed it both to his supporters and to the general campaign to clear away any cloud of doubt that might  weaken the united force against Brian Dubie.  

What do you really think would have happened if he had simply conceded to Peter without a recount?  I’ve got a pretty good idea that many of his supporters, having the 2000 presidential recount still burning in their memory, would have seen his acquiescence as a betrayal.  That’s just his supporters!  His detractors, having lobbed plenty of criticism at him for being a “nice guy,” and for what they saw as his relative inability to turn endorsements into dollars,  would have publicly wailed on him, good-and-plenty, for surrendering when the vote difference was so small.  This was a no-win situation for Doug; but not the first he had been dealt in the campaign.  Labor endorsements, high-profile Progressive endorsements, and tremendous grass-roots organizing would seem to the uninitiated to be something to celebrate.  But if they are not accompanied by the requisite amount of expected cash they apparently turn to PR liabilities, so that much of the conversation in the media around Doug Racine’s campaign toward the end seemed to be all about the cash and not about the candidate.  What was everyone expecting in a deep recession from the candidate of the working class, environmentalists and famously underfunded progressives? I don’t know about you, but at my house, we’re having a tough time just keeping the lights on and the mortgage paid.

My final thoughts this evening:  we’ve gotta uncouple this horse from the locomotive.  It shouldn’t be all about the money; not in Vermont; not anywhere in America.   Political campaigns are nothing more than public information vehicles.  In the age of radio, television and the internet, they can and should be conducted with no private funding whatsoever.  And before the “free speech” paranoids jump all over me, tell me who’s protecting the right to be heard of the working class and poor who can’t afford a paid platform?

It’s time to focus on the task at hand, electing the Democrat slate of statewide candidates and returning substantial majorities to the House and Senate. We’re finally ready to move past deadlock in Montpelier.

Among the rest of the Vermont electorate, there are three groups.

1. Democrats and Progressives who can be counted on to support our candidates: about 36% of the electorate. We have to get these people to the polls. They are concentrated in Windham, Windsor, Washington and Chittenden counties. Rolling up big turnouts in those 4 counties is essential.

2. GOP stalwarts who are as partisan on the other side as we are on ours: about 28% of the electorate. About 15% are Tea Party types.

So the partisan voters in Vermont use up about (36 + 28) 64%, or two-thirds, of the electorate.

3. The independents. Generally speaking they break 60-40 in favor of Democrat candidates (this is readily seen in the downticket statewide results). In other words the 36% of independents generally break 21% – 15% for Dems, so for any given standard Dem vs GOP race it should work out to

36 + 21 vs 28 + 15, or 57% – 43%.

Even if the independents break 50-50 the Dems have a big advantage:

36 + 18 vs 28 + 18, or 54% – 46%

So I’d argue that promoting a big Democrat turnout is really the single most important thing we need to accomplish between now and November.

Dubie does not have the profile Jim Douglas had. Jim Douglas knew or had shook hands with nearly half the Vermont electorate; he is the ONLY candidate who has broken the independent pattern in Vermont, and he’s done it on the strength 40 years of public service of a type that put him in position to attend every ribbon cutting ceremony. Gov Scissorhands had the nickname before he was elected. With Jim Douglas out of the picture, and a need to turn out the base being of primary importance, the statewide candidates need to highlight the traditional GOP positions Dubie and the rest are wedded to: ProLife, anti-healthcare-reform, etc.

I hope the statewide candidates work out a comprehensive campaign effort that has them working together.

Sad news in today's papers: Sally Johnson, a longtime Vermont journalist who edited the Rutland Herald, has died at the age of 60.

I didn't know her that well, but I worked with her a couple of times when cases that I was handling were significant enough to attract media attention. I always appreciated her work, and the intelligence with which she approached her stories.

“She represents to me the golden age of Vermont journalism,” said Steve Kimbell, a retired Vermont lobbyist. “She started writing before the pace of journalism really picked up and that space allowed her to write some investigative and thoughtful pieces that were incredibly valuable.”

Our sympathy and best wishes go out to her husband, Steve Terry, and the rest of her family.

( – promoted by Jack McCullough)

Everyone,

The recount is done and Peter Shumlin is officially our nominee! Let’s get those $100 pledges in as soon as we can and do our part to give a cash-depleted campaign a netroots/grassroots booster shot to beat Brian Dubie in November.

Here’s the link:

https://services.myngp.com/ngp…

(If you have trouble with that link, you can go to the main campaign site at http://www.shumlinforgovernor…. and click on the red DONATE menu option)

…and thanks to everyone for pledging, spreading the word, and keeping up your commitment and enthusiasm while the recount process progressed, whichever candidate you supported during the primary.

-John