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Well lookee there. That’s what I get for reading funky text files when I’m mad.

Note below that I indicate that National Life gave $1000 to Brian Dubie in 2006. So sorry, I misread the report… turns out the contribution wasn’t to Mr. Dubie specifically after all. Here’s the email I received from National Life Corporate Spokesman Chris Graff (who doubled today as objective elections analyst) who just happens to see the recent poll from VPR as good news for the GOP standard-bearer (emphasis added):

John

Please correct your posting: national life did not and has not contributed to Brian Dubie.

The link you are showing is a contribution to the state GOP committee.

Chris

Not just “did not” but “has not” too. Wow. That’s like a double… not, even.

Well, consider it corrected, Chris. As long as you’ve got my email address, perhaps you can drop me an additional line responding to the actual susbstance of the criticism; that a Vice President for Communications for a major corporate interest in Vermont that dabbles in campaign contributions (with an apparent party preference) really has no business playing objective political analyst in a mainstream media context with no disclaimer whatsoever.

Of course, if you feel that’s really a criticism of VPR (and VPT, as you do fill in on Vermont This Week from time to time), I’d say that’s fair. Honestly, it’s hard to really hold it against you if these professional news operations are simply going to open the door for you.

In any event, consider the record corrected. Somehow, I don’t think it helps your case any, though.

Get with it.   I’ve lined up a bus,leaving Friday 10/29 at 6:00 PM from Montpelier and returning 10/30 from DC at 6:00 PM but I need to fill it to keep the cost down to $80 per person.   People need to send me checks for $80 for each set to reserve a seat by Wednesday October 20.  This is an important national statement and a way to vote with your feet, and show the nation that Fox news is crap.

Get on Board

Kim Cheney

143 So. Bear Swamp Rd

Middlesex, Vt 05602

With the election in dead heat and candidate Dubie quite touchy over his sympathy for Entergy’s Vermont Yankee, it appears PSD Commissioner O’Brien has his back. It’s how many days until the election?  

After down playing the latest tritium discovery at Vermont Yankee earlier this week (claiming it didn’t indicate anything “one way or another” and implying interest in safety concerns about the leak were political “it’s how many days until the election?”) the  administration’s guardian of the public good David O’Brien is now choosing mostly to ignore commenting on a NRC report that says:

flaws in construction and housekeeping standards at the time the plant was built in the 1970s and a failure to check on the condition of buried pipes in the years that followed led to the tritium contamination in late 2009 and early 2010.Burlington Free Press

 

No longer suffering from his earlier dismissal of the political, he is jumping into the election going after gubernatorial candidate Peter Shumlin for a remark made saying a recent NRC report confirmed that the design of the plant was not state of the art at the time it was built and the legislature had done the correct thing voting 26-4 to retire the aging plant.    

O’Brien (a Douglas political appointee and former banker/businessman) maintains Shumlin’s statement was

“irresponsible”and “He [Shumlin] is not qualified on this topic, and he doesn't know what is and what state of the art isn’t."

 PSD Commissioner further claims that the leaks are being “dealt with properly” and Shumlin is only “stirring fears”.  

(Cross-posted on Broadsides, the Homespun Family Blog)

oh babie babie hope and change

hope and change hope and change

hope and…ahhhhhhhhhh!

was it good for you my fellow Americans?

I need a cigarette

whew…

Mr. President?

yes Christine?

that was my very first time

and I didn’t feel a thing

I don’t think anybody

felt anything

well shit O’Donnell

do it to yourself next time

jeez…I know I got off

you got a light?

no and Mr. President

I don’t think you should be

advocating onanism…

I thought that was onerism…

no onanism

and God killed Onan

for spilling his seed

it’s in Genesis

so I don’t think you should be

advocating an act unnatural

to God’s law on national TV

shit you’re one smart honky bitch

you know O’Donnell

I like to do a good screwin’

almost every day

like that last Pentagon budget

and restoring off-shore drilling

in the Gulf

talk about drillin’  heh

I really got off on that one

well Mr. President if you’ll permit me

I really think there’s something lacking

in your technique

I mean when George and Dick

screwed…bad word…when they fornicated people

you knew you were really getting fornicated

you really felt it

well shit I…

nobody is feeling it Mr. President

nobody cares

look at the liberals and the lefties

do you see them marching in the streets?

well maybe you could conjure up

a spell Chrissy?

I hear you’re into that stuff

no Mr. President

that was when I was young and naive

before I met Jesus

at a tea party

may I make some suggestions?

go ahead and shoot your load

lower taxes on the rich

permanently

abolish all estate taxes

permanently

make abortion a capital crime

like some kind of terrorism

raise taxes on the poor

no health care

no child care

send gays to Guantanamo

reinstate the draft

put the dollar on the flag

shut down the Internet

and make the disabled work for a living

people will feel it

you know…hell let me try it

come ‘er

tax the poor tax the poor

hope and change hope and change

save the rich screw the kids

kill the Net jail the gays

hope and change hope and…ahhhhhhhh!!!

that was better Mr. President

I think I’d like a cigarette now

yeah and I gotta raise the taxes

on these things too

how’s that for a screwin’?

very good

and don’t forget junk food

and baby food

yeah

you know Chrissy

maybe I will get rid of Biden in ’12

wanna get together?

oh Mr. President

people would really feel that

you’re becoming a stud

hope and change babie

wait til next year

all this has just been foreplay

I’m gonna hope and change

their brains out

hope and change their sorry asses good

and don’t use protection

right

and no health care

thank you Mr. President

I feel so…well…fornicated

and I didn’t even use my hands

well keep your tits up Chrissy

I gotta go try this shit

on Michelle

tax the poor tax the poor

the black poor the black poor

yes Mr. President

give it to her good

give it to her once for me

oh my…………………

Peter Buknatski

Montpelier, Vt.

Virtually the first words out of Chris Graff’s mouth when asked about the VPR poll on Vermont Edition today? “It is good news for Brian Dubie.” What’d I tell ya?

For the last decade and a half, Graff has been the most predictable voice in the Vermont media. Here I’ve been annoyed by the greater professional media buzz that this election was Brian Dubie’s to lose… I guess with Graff predictably on the opposite extreme, this is so supposed to average things out…?

Snark aside, it’s outrageous that Graff is still turned to as a voice of wisdom in media circles, even though he is, at present, the Vice President for Communications at National Life. How it is that any self-respecting, professional news outlet can continue to put a man whose professional responsibility is to promote the interests of his major corporate employer in the media, into the position of objective analyst of the political landscape is way beyond me. According to a quick search at the Secretary of State’s website, since 2004, National Life has contributed $1000 to the State Democratic Party (in 2008), and $2000 to Republicans, including a $500 contribution to “Republican Victory Committee 2004,” $500 to the GOP’s “Senate Majority Committee 2004” and… wait for it… $1000 to Brian Dubie himself in 2006 (see above diary).

Frankly, if they’re involving themselves in the political contribution game at all that should be enough to disqualify Graff from playing this role in the media. The fact that they have a clear party preference and have financially supported the current Republican candidate in a previous election (again, see above diary) just makes it a borderline obscenity.

(Details on what the National Life spokesman opined after the jump…)

So, what did Graff have to say? Predictable, paper-thin silly stuff. His premise is the super-simplistic idea that Vermont is an all-blue state. It’s not, obviously, as Jim Douglas has owned the position in question for years. But simply from “looking at the Congressional delegation,” Graff concludes that the fact that Dubie is not 30 points behind means he’s got mojo (never mind the fact that head-to-head Rasmussen polls during the primary had Shumlin trailing Dubie consistently by nearly 20 points. If I were writing a Dubie campaign plan last Spring, I’d’ve planned to be at least 10 points up in the polls at this point).

Of course, peppered in between his repeated explanations of why Shumlin is in trouble and Dubie is da man were odd little contradictory disclaimers to hedge his bet (“this is good news for both campaigns”)

But the failures of Peter Shumlin were the theme. You’d think Shumlin would be doing better in southern Vermont… Shumlin needs to do better in Chittenden… Shumlin doesn’t have the name recognition that Racine or Markowitz would have at this point…

That last point was just bizarre and makes one wonder whether Graff really looked at the poll, which showed Shumlin’s name recognition virtually the exact same as Dubie’s (4% unrecognized for Dubie, 5% for Shumlin). At this point, Racine and Markowitz could be doing no better. That much is obvious.

As to how poorly Shumlin is doing in Chittenden County, that’s just silly. Chittenden is Dubie’s home county. He comes from the state’s second largest city – yet Shumlin leads him in the County by 11%. Part of the appeal of Dubie  to Republicans would be his geography, and the potential to offset the Chittenden liberal vote. Clearly it aint working.

The question about southern Vermont is, at least, understandable. But southern Vermont, for purposes of the poll, refers to the “lower four” counties of Windsor, Windham, Bennington and Rutland. It’s northern Vermonter myopia to think these four are anything close to monolithic. Rutland is the biggest, and trends R. Bennington does too, and Windsor is more of a swing region.

Windham is Shumlin’s home county and trends D for sure. In fact, it was the only county that went for Peter Clavelle in 2004 – despite the fact that Clavelle was the popular mayor of Burlington itself. What the numbers from that year (and subsequent years) tell us is that Windham turns out big for Dems – and will likely turn out even bigger for a native son. My guess – and I don’t have the breakdowns, so this is a gut check – is that the 33% of the sample that came from the south likely underrepresented Windham as a percentage of what that regional turnout will actually be in November – which would be good news for Shumlin.

But Graff’s thesis was, in his words, that “clearly Peter Shumlin has not closed the deal” (as though he sonehow should’ve been expected to by now). This is because Graff has a very simplistic opinion of all this that he’s not going to let go of, regardless of the reality staring him in the face. First of all, he’s absolutely insistent that “we should see a democratic candidate doing much better – we dont,” and he blames that on the primary contest, which – as he put it – gave Dubie the “summer off.”

Really – isn’t this line of nonsense long-since debunked? 70,000 people cast ballots in the Democratic Primary. 70,000 That’s an unprecedented level of public engagement at that point in the process.

From March 1 of 2004 to October 15 of 2004, a Google news archive search reveals 274 hits for then Democratic candidate Peter Clavelle. The same period for Scudder Parker in ’06 yields 180. Symington in ’08 (and she was the Speaker of the House), 276. All things being equal, we have some consistency in play, and Peter Shumlin’s hits this year in the same period should be in that mid to upper 200 range. Instead, he clocks in at 368.

What’s the difference? The primary. Duh. And what does that translate to? Higher name recognition, higher voter interest, higher voter engagement. Duh and duh. Compared to polls from this time in the last couple cycles, Shumlin’s name recognition is through the roof.

Thanks to the primary.

But Graff can’t see straight on this stuff. That’s how he can make absurd statements on the radio like this one on the name recognition issue: “no one really knew him (Shumlin) before he won the primary in this big area, Chittenden County.” If that’s so, how did Shumlin walk away with nearly a quarter of the Chittenden County vote in the primary (he carried 23%, to Racine’s 31% and Markowitz’s 24%). Silly.

And while Dubie may have had the “summer off” in Graff’s words, what did he do with it? At two weeks out the last three cycles, Douglas could take a vacation and phone it in. Right now, Dubie is running for his political life.

The other piece of Graff’s dogmatic narrative is that this will all come down to who gets the self-described “independents,” and Dubie is ahead in that department.

Well, the fact is that since we don’t have party registration, all these party labels are, frankly, somewhat impulsively self-designated. I fully expect Dubie to have an initial advantage among that crowd because more self-identifying indys tend to be conservative – especially as the tea party crowd has grown. Having said that, I think, based on the rumors of Dubie’s increasing negatives among this crowd, Shumlin will likely pull even.

But Graff doesn’t really mean “independents.” That’s his code for “moderates.” He – like so many others in his former field, simply as a matter of routine – think this is going to come down to who is the most moderate.

And guess what – he’s wrong on that too.

When a race is this close – and I’m assuming it will stay this close – it comes down to get out the vote operations. Which side has more energy to turn out more voters. Those efforts are largely base driven, and largely turn out base voters. This is politics 101. A nailbiter always turns on turnout efforts, rather than the pundit classes notions of idealized political moderation.

And while the “enthusiasm gap” favoring Republicans at the national level is well-documented, we’re looking at a different dynamic in Vermont, where left-leaning Vermonters are hopping up at down at the first real chance to do away with the Douglas era in nearly a decade. Enthusiasm is very, very high.

So aside from the question of whether or not Mr. Graff should even be playing the role of political expert in the media, the fact is that his perspective is a simplistic reflection of what he wants the election to be about, rather than what it is.

Ah, well. On the other hand, there is one thing I suppose I should be grateful for. At least he’s not among the choir of the more active media crowd who figure this is all Brian Dubie’s to lose. At least I can see where those folks are coming from. Here I was wishing we’d heard the last of that narrative, but I guess you should be careful what you wish for…

Help, I’m not having a happy day here and I just don’t get it.  I opened up GMD this morning to find that Shumlin’s 5+ point lead is gone in the most recent polls.  And CAs Prop 19 is now failing in the polls!?!?!  What happened in the last few days?

The thing I just don’t get for the life of me, is how Vermont which is seen as one of the most progressive and liberal states could possibly elect another Republican Governor.  This makes no sense?!  What is wrong with these people?  How can we have significant Democratic leads in US Congress, majorities in State houses, but when it comes time to elect a Governor, people want a Republican liar to lead our state?  I was hoping Shumlin was going to ride his 5 point lead or maybe even expand on it for the next two weeks and we’d finally have some sanity back in Montpelier.  I just don’t get it!  What is going on?  Someone help me out here!  I’ve lived in Vermont for 12 years now and I just don’t get it!

More from the VPR report. far as down-ticket toplines go, Democratic/Progressive candidate for Auditor Doug Hoffer is leading incumbent Salmon by a 38%-34% margin. CORRECTION: The VPR website had this flipped and have since corrected it… Salmon leads Hoffer 38%-34%. Bummer.

Also good news is the fact that Democrat Jim Condos leads Jason Gibbs in the Secretary of State race by 3 points: 39%-36% (still within the margin of error).

Steve Howard is lagging Phil Scott, 41%-32%. (Link)

VPR has provided a link to the report on its Mason-Dixon conducted poll in a downloadable format (credited as “VPR Vermont poll”). Definitely some interesting results. As many predicted, Phil Scott has a comfortable lead for Lieutenant Governor, but Jim Condos is ahead of Jason Gibbs in the SoS race. Strong positives for Leahy and Welch, indicating Vermonters like the jobs both are doing.

Also, Dubie has stronger positives than Shumlin, but not by a large amount – and Dubie’s positives are under 50%, which is great news. “No opinions” and “don’t recognize” responses of the both of them are virtually ically the exact same, so those final votes are completely up for grabs.

Here are some results from the link:

Senate: Leahy 62% (fav/unfav=61/23), Britton 27% (fav/unfav=19/7). For the curious, Freilich 1%.

US House: Welch 61% (fav/unfav = 61/17), Beaudry 25% (fav/unfav = 19/11)

For the following two races, only favorable/unfavorables are currently available. Head to heads are presumably coming. When those numbers are released, expect Scott to have a sizable lead over Howard, and Condos to have a statistically meaningful (if not huge) lead over Gibbs.

Lieutenant Governor: Scott fav/unfav = 29/11, Howard fav/unfav = 19/5

Secretary of State: Condos fav/unfav = 20/9, Gibbs fav/unfav = 17/10

The full Governor spread:

Brian Dubie, 44% (fav/unfav = 47/31)

Peter Shumlin, 43% (fav/unfav = 41/37)

Ben Mitchell, 1%

Cris Ericson, 1%

Dan Feliciano, 1%

Em Peyton, 1%

Dennis Steele, 1%

Undecided  8

Click here for my more or less accurate prediction and (therefore, more or less meaningful) analysis of the results. You can also tune in to Chris Graff on Vermont Edition, who will doubtlessly tell us that this is all good news for Dubie, because Vermonters love Dubie (because Jim Douglas has been teh awesome!), and the numbers probably don’t really show how far ahead Dubie really is.

I was in Brattleboro last night, mostly to do a live blog of a candidate forum, but on the way home I stopped by the Rotary to do some night photography.  While I was there, crews were doing night road work by the rotary, which made for cool blinking lights and other patterns that were interesting and make for good night photography.  

Then I noticed something: one of the construction vehicles had two signs attached to it.  If I hadn’t been set up for an entirely different type of photo, I might have been able to get a picture of this, but motion blur in the dark would not have done me much good (motion blur was kind of the point of taking these photos).  

What I saw was two signs on a large yellow work truck: one was a Dubie for gov poster, and the other was a Scott for Lt. Gov poster.

I’m working under the (possibly incorrect) assumption that these are municipal vehicles doing municipal road work.  In other words, they are functioning as an arm of government.  Even if they are private contractors, they are doing work on behalf of government.  

So why are they engaging in high visibility advertising on behalf of a political candidate?