Lots o’politics going on in Vermont these days, mainly to do with the opening of the Legislative session. So much going on that I found it difficult to keep up with, let alone write GMD posts. But there’s some stuff worth commenting on — and providing a space in the GMD comments section for your two cents’ worth.
In no particular order, the topics are: Governor Shumlin’s budget address, the latest on the relocation of state workers displaced by the flooding of Waterbury, the debate over how best to replace the Vermont State Hospital, and Randy Brock’s attempt to make health care reform an issue in the gubernatorial campaign.
Strap in, buckaroos… deets after the jump.
Shumlin’s budget address. One thumb up, one thumb down. The upside — and this cannot be overemphasized — is the Administration’s success (so far) in keeping the ship afloat in very tough budgetary times. Remember 2009-10, when Jim Douglas was castigating the Leglsiature for refusing to take a meataxe to the budget? When he warned of dire consequences in the next biennium? Well, so far, his successor has managed to avoid those consequences. Which either means that Shumlin’s done a heck of a job, or… maybe ol’ Jim was exaggerating just a bit?
Probably both.
Okay, the other thumb. Given the budget situation… given the expense of post-Irene rebuilding… and, frankly, given the weakness of Shumlin’s potential opposition… this would have been a great time to propose a tax hike on upper-income Vermonters. It could have helped restore past cuts in human services and forestall future cuts. It could have allowed Shumlin to propose an increase in higher-ed funding (aside from his ideas for specific new programs) when tuition is already too high. It could have allowed him to avoid a real headscratcher of a budget cut: delaying Medicaid reimbursements for autism treatments for young children. Maybe this makes sense, but from the outside it sounds incredibly meanspirited.
There’s also the fact that, although he would hold the line on income, gas, and sales taxes, his budget would shift costs onto local school districts by permanently cutting the General Fund transfer to the Education Fund. Local districts would face a tough choice between cutting their budgets and seeking property-tax increases.
Besides all of that, Shumlin’s stance reinforces the Republican shibboleth that higher taxes kill the entrepreneurial spirit and cause rich people to flee. There is absolutely no evidence for those assertions. And when Democrats adopt them, they bolster the conservative case and cede precious ground in our political dialogue.
Relocation of state workers. Shumlin’s plan, if I understand it, is a pretty fair attempt to satisfy everyone. Waterbury would retain the vast majority of its former state workforce, and Barre would get a modest influx. In the past, I’ve warned against a move to Barre purely on political grounds: why should Shumlin hand a major victory to Thom Lauzon and thus elevate him as a potential statewide Republican candidate?
I still feel that way. But Shumlin’s plan seems to lean Waterbury’s way, and it doesn’t give Lauzon a huge victory. I’m satisfied with what I’ve seen on the issue.
The Vermont State Hospital. I won’t spend much time on this because I’ve already made my views clear. But I will say that, while Shumlin wants a fast-track adoption of his plan, there’s a rising tide of opposition from the medical community and a lot of questions being asked in the Legislature. (See Vermont Digger’s stories posted on January 6 and January 12.) This ain’t over, and I doubt Shumlin will win approval for his plan without some significant changes.
Randy Brock’s desperation heave. The Republicans would dearly love to make health care reform an issue in the gubernatorial campaign. Can’t blame them; Shumlin’s gonna be awfully hard to beat, given (a) his performance in keeping the budget in check, described above, (b) his post-Irene leadership and the impressive accomplishments in the recovery effort, and (c) Vermont’s track record of re-electing incumbents even if they don’t deserve it. (Tom Salmon, come on down!) And health care reform, as Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama could tell you, is an issue ripe for demagoguery.
So the putative Republican nominee for Governor, Randy Brock, has introduced a bill that would move the due date for the Green Mountain Care Board’s reform plan from January 2013 to September 2012. (The bill would also call for the hiring of an independent contractor to review the plan’s financing, rather than the Joint Fiscal Office.)
On purely political grounds, the bill makes perfect sense. If GMCB had to release its plan in September, the Republicans could certainly find grounds — or pretexts — to attack it and raise all kinds of fears about it.
But, well, given the Democrats’ sizeable Legislative majorities, Brock’s bill is DOA anyway. He’s just hoping to manufacture a talking point. I can’t blame him; he doesn’t have much to work with.