• Tomorrow’s the big day for politics junkies…. that’s right, baby – its campaign finance filing day. Is Douglas getting any money from the national GOP? Are Freeman and Costello raising any cash? Is Pollina’s money holding out?

  Oh there’s so much to be learned from these silly things – especially when you haven’t seen one in ages and ages. And they’ll get more interesting over the next several weeks. One particularly interesting bit to watch will be how Pollina fares now that he is not the Progressive Party’s candidate – meaning that the Progs will potentially get into trouble if they start spending on his behalf. With his/their track record on such matters, you better believe lots of folks will be watching very closely…

• On the Lt. Governor Primary: Nate “mydog” Freeman’s been busy sending out press releases, while Tom Costello has got a couple familiar faces in his corner: former State Representatives Jerry Kreitzer and Patricia Doyle. Had a delightful chat with Patricia the other day, which unfortunately did not include acceptance of our invitation to an online debate, like the one GMD held between Matt Dunne and John Tracy last time that garnered quite a bit of press. I suppose at this point, I am forced to conclude that the answer is “no.” Bummer. Might help folks make up their minds.

  Some folks who seem like they’ve already made up their minds are the Rutland County Democrats. Rutland, along with Windham County, makes up Costello’s geographic base. The calendar entry on his campaign kickoff announcement reads (emphasis added):

  Thomas Costello a Brattleboro lawyer and Rutland native will be announcing he is running for Lieutenant Governor. Tom served 10 years in the Vermont Legislature from both Rutland and Brattleboro.  He chaired the Judiciary Committee as well as General Housing and Military Affairs. He is a Vietnam Vet. who was awarded a purple heart and a bronze star. He is a proven leader who needs our support. Please come and join him at his announcement.

  Ouch. If there are any Freeman supporters in Rutland County, they must be pretty pissed off by that all-but-explicit endorsement. Very impolitic, shall we say.

• Shay Totten reports that layoffs have begun at the Vermont Milk Company. He quotes heavily from a conversation with Dennis Myrick who was brought on to help shore things up at the former Pollina-co-helmed project:
  

  “As of this week, we’re not able to pay on the back debt and we need to have more on the bottom line and have to pay more of our debt service,” said Myrick. If that can’t happen, then they made need to make more cuts or figure out ways to improve distribution.

  Ouch again.

• Speaking of Totten, he’s onto Vermont Yankee’s creative radiation monitoring scheme first noticed here by Julie (no hat tip to her of course, but that’s just par for the course for “shit spewed on a blog”, I suppose…) (okay, I’ll back off, there..). Totten has brought his experience and interest in the Vermont Yankee issue from his Guardian days into his new gig, and its doing a lot for raising the ENVY profile in the northern half of the state, which is great.

  Less great is how he falls victim to above-it-all-columnist-itis earlier in his piece. Under the heading The Politics of Tragedy, Totten waxes PO’d about the political grandstanding surrounding the Brooke Bennett tragedy. A worthy topic (and point of anger) to be sure.

  Totten recounts Douglas’s gross attempts to deflect criticism of his own Department of Corrections by pushing Democrats into an all-or-nothing demand to corner them on his hot-button (but utterly ineffective) “solutions” such as chemical castration. He chides Dubie and radio-wingnut Paul Beaudry for chiming in as well.

  Then he follows the initial account with the statement…

  Douglas then lamented the “great deal of talk, finger-pointing and grandstanding” that followed the discovery of Bennett’s body in a shallow grave in Randolph County (sic). He should know. Douglas, Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, Symington and Shumlin are in a league of their own when it comes to grandstanding.

  ….before going on to further chide Douglas. Why are Symington and Shumlin thrown into this equivalence mix out of the blue (especially when you consider that Symington is one of the all time worst grandstanders)? Well, Totten never tells us, does he?

  So I will: he spends the next few paragraphs on an extraordinary soapbox, haphazardly courting the same kind of grandstanding charges he just cast about so freely. The reason, then, he had to arbitrarily drop Symington and Shumlin into a story about Jim Douglas is so he can more easily and cleanly cast himself as above all those terrible, terrible politicians, so as to better speak for the people and tell those phonies what’s what. It’s not an unfamiliar dynamic to those of us who follow the beltway columnists, who routinely try and cast Democrats and Republicans as just as bad on issues that Republicans are clearly worse on. Yawn.

  And if you’re inclined to cheer this kind of thing on simply because the Democrats bug you, don’t be. Why not? Because this kind of faux equivalence in the popular media does nothing but help derail real discussion, real progress, and real political solutions. There are plenty of reasons to beat up on Democratic politicians without having to arbitrarily make up more, just for the purpose of giving yourself a bigger platform from which to pontificate.

The Hill has come out with a list of the “50 Most Beautiful People on Capitol Hill” for 2008, and if you check this link and scroll down three spaces, you'll see that Peter Welch's Communications Director Andrew Savage has made the list. He can be seen here in a photo from his audition for the next “Miami Vice” movie (of course, given his tender age, “Miami Vice” jokes are probably gonna fly right by Mr. Savage…).

The Hill refers to Savage as a “Renaissance Man” and writes:

Along with his ability to ski, bike, cut wood and take pictures, Savage's looks are all natural. His beauty routine is limited to the dictates of personal hygiene.

Well, and forgetting to shave for a few days before the shoot… heh.

Our buddy Andrew's even got one DC blogger speculating that he could be the “white Barack Obama” if he decides to run for office (while granting that he's probably “right on FISA”).

Congratulations, Andrew! Whenever Kiefer Sutherland decides to hang it up, we'll write you a letter of reference for his “24” spot.

Interestingly, this is the second year in a row a Welch staffer has made the list. Last year it was Molly Gray, who the Hill compared to Kelly McGillis.

So, does Welch have something against ugly people? Maybe I'll lead the next office occupation.

If the Welch Staff Swimsuit Calendar gets printed with taxpayer dollars, I'm calling Bill O'Reilly.

Here it is:

Mixed feelings. The content needs to get out there, and kudos to them for that. Lord knows the press corps doesn’t give a crap about reporting on this kind of shameful behavior from our chief executive.

But stylistically, I think the subject is too hot to deal with in standard political ad format. On this one, I think they would’ve been a lot wiser to do away with the sinister music and let the bobbing and weaving speak for itself. But that might just be me.

In any event, good for them for holding Douglas accountable like they never – and I mean never – have before.

The economy is saved! As any serious economicalist surely knows, the only way to guarantee prosperity and a booming economy for all is to cut taxes, regulations, all those pesky government programs and stuff that interfere with the purity of an absolutely, unregulated, uninhibited global market, and allow the super-rich to become super-duper-extra-rich. They then use their powers of hard-working genius (because you can’t be rich unless you’re a hard-working genius) even more than usual, and the benefits trickle down to all. It’s all about supply side maximization. Rising tides and boat raising and such. So the Wall Street Journal report today is awesome!

In a new sign of increasing inequality in the U.S., the richest 1% of Americans in 2006 garnered the highest share of the nation’s adjusted gross income for two decades, and possibly the highest since 1929, according to Internal Revenue Service data.

Meanwhile, the average tax rate of the wealthiest 1% fell to its lowest level in at least 18 years. The group’s share of the tax burden has risen, though not as quickly as its share of income.

Yay! This means the economy must be great!  Why, this must be a new golden age, just like it was back in 1929! Woo-hoo! Mission accomplished! I’m goin’ on a shopping spree (well, as soon as I get approved for my umpteenth credit card, anyway)!

Compare and contrast…

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Geez. Obama looks like a freaking action hero sitting next to Petraeus. Don’t suppose it matters in any meaningful way, but its reassuring that they won’t get us with that particular cheap trick this time…

Here’s a little story:

Way back about 12 years ago I was a field organizer for the Sanders campaign (the year he went up against Susan Sweetser…. remember her?), and most of my “territory” was Washington County. Obviously, the election went well – and if I do say so myself, it was the first election up to that point (and thereafter, I believe) that Washington County was proportionately the strongest County for Bernie. We kicked Susie’s butt by nearly 2 to 1.

The Sunday after the election, there was a meeting of the handful of key progressive activists in the area – at the time, the “Washington County Progressive Coalition” – to go over how the election had gone and its impact for future movement building. I was there, as well as folks like Hal Leyshon, Ellen David Friedman – and Anthony Pollina.

We had somebody there from Burlington as well… I forget who, exactly – maybe Dean Corren? The conversation at one point went into a discussion of using the success of the Bernie groundgame and the Coalition successes in Burlington to jumpstart a statewide “Progressive Party” (there was also talk about a Labor party and a Green Party, at least briefly).

I chimed in at that point. I shared my opinion that, given the structure of the system and the inevitable marginalization that would occur, third parties just seemed like tilting at windmills. That if we wanted to send progressive messages and shake up the political institutions but still be viable electorally, running some targeted independents in key races made more sense, as doing so would not preclude support from partisans (or even parties themselves), and would better enable an opt-in dynamic for coalition building should some of these folks get elected (you know – like Bernie).

What can I say? I was a kid then: naive, ofttimes ridiculous, pretty new to the state, and had no idea of just how antithetical that view really was to the crowd in that room. There was a moment of silence while everybody looked at me, and gave a sort of collective “hmm” before moving on as though I’d said nothing.

Twelve years later, while its always nice to see one’s advice taken, there’s something to be said for the matter of timing…

So what I’ve been hearing suggests that Pollina may indeed be polling in the doghouse, and his surprise shift to indyland likely is an attempt to reinvent the campaign. It’s a move that could easily backfire, though, given the fact that it will be seen as essentially sacrificing the greater good of the Party to one guy’s campaign.

To add insult to injury, Gaye Symington turned in a whopping 2500 signatures to lock in the Democratic spot – which has got to dampen the prospects of those “Democrats for Pollina” who were hoping that low enthusiasm for Symington might fuel a campaign to get Pollina written in for the Democratic primary.

But it aint over yet. The ballots will still get printed, which means that somebody could get written into the Prog Party line for Governor or any of these offices (they do apparently have a candidate against Peter Welch) come the primary, and if a write in reaches the threshold of 500 votes, they get to be the candidate. Of course, turnout is likely to be low, low, low, and this means that Gaye Symington’s supporters might actually be better situated to pull something like that off themselves (that would be weird).

Of course it also means that anybody else could get written in as the Prog Party candidate for Governor, which could also complicate things for Pollina. Anybody interested?

Thomas James Hermann of Barre is now the Progressive Party’s hope for maintaining their Major Party status, as he is the only Progressive Party candidate who filed for statewide office (note: as the US House race is not one of Vermont’s Constitutional offices, those statewide vote totals do the Progressives no good towards retaining Major Party status). Joining him in running against US Representative Peter Welch is perennial Liberty Union candidate Jane Newton and perennial former Green candidate Craig Hill running in the Democratic Primary.

But no Republican. Heh.

The Liberty Union Party is running somebody in every statewide slot, while the state GOP is leaving incumbents Jeb Spaulding and Tom Salmon Jr. (along with Welch) unchallenged.

UPDATE: review the Secretary of State’s listing of qualified candidates here: http://vermont-elections.org/e…

First of all, its looking an awful lot like the Democrats may be the only Major Party with its act together electorally (hunh… haven’t said anything like that for a while). We won’t know for sure about the the statewide races until the SoS updates their spreadsheet in about an hour, but it seems that the Dems are challenging for every statewide office (including a primary for Lieutenant Governor as both Costello and Freeman will be on the ballot), while the GOP is, in fact, giving freshman US Representative Peter Welch a pass (along with several other statewide Dems), and the Progs had their standard-bearer drop their brand completely.

While the local races will likely trickle into officially reported status over the next couple days, there are some races we can start noting now.

• Progressives are so far looking to expand in Orleans-Caledonia 1 (Nancy Potak), Franklin-4 (Cindy Weed), Rutland 5 (Ellen Garneau) and Windham 3-2 (Mollie Burke, who will likely prove to be running unopposed by a D or an R) and will try to pick up a Washington County Senate seat (John Bloch). Winston Dowland is also trying to make a comeback in Orleans-1.
• Democrats will continue to make a serious push to continue their growth in Rutland County by running strong candidates for Senate in former State Rep Cheryl Hooker and Democratic activist Hope Blucher.
• VSEA stalwart Terry Macaig will make another attempt at the legislature in Williston as a Dem, as incumbent Mary Peterson has opted not to run again.
• Burlington author Suzi Wizowaty is apparently making it a primary in Chittenden 3-5, putting her at odds with Rep. Donovan and the often-annoyingly-conservative Keough. May be one to check out more closely…
• One-time Jim Douglas campaign contributor and nominal Democrat Jon Anderson will indeed stand for re-election as a Democrat, contrary to some rumors that placed him as possibly running as an Independent. He  faces seatmate Warren Kitzmiller and Montpelier Mayor Mary Hooper.
• Perennial Liberty Union candidate Boots Wardinski is scaling down his sights to run for State House against GOP incumbent Otterman in Orange-Caledonia 1. Also running is a Dem I don’t know named “Chip Conquest.” That is truly an awesome name.

Still lots of unknowns, but lets just say that early suggestions of Republican troubles filling local races with candidates have not yet been disproven… we’ll see in the next day or so.

Well, well. Here’s the first surprise of the filing deadline: Progressive Anthony Pollina is now Independent Anthony Pollina. That’s right, Pollina will be on the ballot for Governor as an Independent. So what’s up with that?

Possibilities:

1. This was the plan all along, but it was kept quiet so as not to invite the likes of Michael Colby to fill the Progressive Party ballot line without a fight? Interesting, if true, but questionable strategically. Not the running as an independent part – not only does it potentially broaden his appeal, but he’s no longer running against the two-party system in the same institutional way he was before, which could give him room to “opt in” the way Bernie has, but still be positioned as a reformer. There can be a lot of value to those sorts of campaigns, precisely because they critique and press the two party system without doing so quixotically.

But on the other hand, coming out with this now, if this was indeed the plan from the beginning, is  somewhat an exercise in closing the barn door after the cows have escaped. The opportunity to garner support – especially Democratic support – from such a move was largely many months back, when he was campaigning full steam ahead and Symington hadn’t committed. Also, this will inevitably piss off a lot of Prog-sorts committed to the counter-institutional nature of a third party. To them it will be seen as a sell-out – a frustration that, again, would’ve been easier to absorb and move on from months back when fewer people were watching. Finally – it would’ve made a cleaner, easier answer to all those urging him to run as a Dem. With this news, he could further cast himself as anti-Democrat, by looking willing to consider any left-label except Democrat.

So is it a smart move, but bad timing? Problem with this theory is that he was collecting sigs for the Progressive ballot… that would be some lengths to go to just to be sneaky.

2. Desperation? Could be. The rollout of his credit card rewards program to save the state (VermontCard) got me scratching my head, and many others felt similarly. Is that move, and this Indy shingle, a sign that his internal poll numbers are in the crapper, and they’re looking for some way to reinvent the whole effort?

If no other Prog turns in signatures for a statewide ballot today, the good money’s on this theory, though – as it would mean they would lose their hard-earned major party status next year without a better-than-negligible showing on a statewide race. Hard to believe they’d let that happen unless they were desperate.

3. Not enough signatures? The deadline to turn in signatures as an Independent is not today, but September 12th. That’s a little extra time.

I don’t believe for a minute that’s what’s going on, but if he doesn’t turn in papers today, he may invite the question (or even speculation that he’s considering withdrawing – also something I wouldn’t believe for a minute).

The big question of the day? How could Pollina’s move – he being the last person most political watchers would expect to follow Bernie down the indy path – NOT send a message that the Progressive Party as an institution has hit the ceiling in Vermont, and that there’s nowhere to go with that political brand beyond the handful of State House seats the Progs currently hold?

Update: Pollina’s email to supporters on th ematter is below the fold…

Dear XX,

I want to share some exciting information about our campaign. Today, surrounded by a broad coalition of Vermonters representing democrats, progressives, independents, and even republicans, including educators, labor leaders, students, business people and more, I announced that I would appear on the November ballot as an Independent.

Since my campaign began, I have stressed the urgency to build a coalition strong enough to defeat the incumbent Governor. Over the last 7 months I have talked with many of you and Vermonters in every corner and from every county at more than 150 meetings across our state. I have asked Vermonters to tell me what is important to them. I have made a real effort to reach out to grassroots democrats, republicans and independents. Although the state democratic committee was unwilling to meet with me, I have found most Vermonters to be extremely open and interested in this election for Governor of Vermont. Regardless of background or affiliation, the Vermonters I have talked with and listened to share similar concerns. They are tired of old politics. And are deeply worried about paying their bills during the cold winter ahead.

The 2008 election – for good reason – comes down to very basic issues. The old solutions are not working. Doing nothing is no longer an option. New vision, leadership and ideas are needed in these serious, troubling times. And it will take a new kind of coalition to make it happen.  Across the state, Vermonters have talked about how to open  the door to all who want to participate in and support our efforts. They have encouraged us to build a unified coalition beyond the Democratic and Republican parties. I am very much impressed by the willingness of so many to step outside their own comfort zone and think outside of the box.  This is exactly how real change occurs. At their urging, I have decided to lead this coalition as an Independent on the November ballot. Let me clearly state:  this decision in no way compromises my priorities or positions. I am a Progressive in practice and principle.

Building a strong coalition is critical to the success of this campaign and so is raising money. The first campaign finance report is due in only 10 days. Please join our coalition and support Vermont’s future by contributing today.

This campaign continues our commitment to building a coalition of Vermonters that can deliver good jobs, lower health care costs, a safe energy future, support for public schools and a clean environment. I believe in this commitment because it is being made by a growing number of independent minded Vermonters ready to work together to build a better Vermont. Vermonters who look around and see that when we work together we can do better…much better.

I look forward to continuing to work with and for you. If you have questions or suggestions please email them to the campaign.