Many weeks back I promised Norsehorse blogger Morgan Brown, who commented on this site that he intended to vote for Martha Rainville, that I’d post on why that would be a big mistake. In the cascade of life and news, I didn’t get around to it until now – which is actually for the better, as my perspective has developed further. With all due respect to those who have expressed concerns about his race (and GMD readers know I am very much among that number), there are two reasons why it’s time for all of us to stop whining and not simply vote for Welch in November, but to get our asses in gear and do whatever it takes to makes sure other Vermonters do as well.
First of all is the inconvenient truth of this election. So inconvenient that Morgan tersely dismissed it without explanation (and that’s because dissmissing it couldn’t be explained): that is, that a vote for Rainville is – like it or not – a vote to leave our Nation in the grip of the Constitution-shredding, corrupt, theocratic klepetocracy personified by His Majesty, King George III (I figure Washington and Bush I came first, and with Bush II claiming kingly authority…well, George III, yes?)
Consider the following from MyDD:
The Democrats cannot win back the House solely by winning the seats that are most competitive today, the “toss-ups.” Were the Dems to sweep all 11 seats, they would still need six more pick-ups in order to retake the House.
The Democrats can win back the House solely by winning back seats that are competitive today, the “toss-ups” and “leans” categories, though it would be very difficult. For the Democrats to win back the House only in these two categories, they would have to win 25 of 35 seats — or about 71 percent of the seats. This would be a possible, however less than likely task, even in a year in which one party has a general advantage in the double-digits.
By expanding the race to incoporate all seats that Cook views as possibly competitive at this juncture — the “toss-ups,” “leans,” and “likely” categories — the Democrats’ path to victory would become slightly easier. To win back the House with only seats deemed today to be potentially competitive, the Democrats would have to win 42 of the 68 races, or roughly 61 percent of the elections in question. While this might be difficult, it is not impossible, either numerically speaking or politically speaking.
The math is there, folks. The Democrats could pick up precisely the amount of seats in the US House to regain the majority — and then be foiled by an unexpected GOP pickup in Vermont. And if that doesn’t scare you right there, you’re either a Republican yourself, or you’re in serious, serious denial.
Everything — stopping the takeover of the courts by the religious right (if that’s even possible anymore), civil rights, privacy, the fundamental rights to due process, counsel and a fair trial, the rule of law and the Constitutional system of checks and balances, the principle that you don’t wage war because you think it’d be cool to kick somebody’s butt, the integrity of our military, our intelligence services, federal crisis management, the prospect of holding anyone who supports or works for Bush accountable when they break the law, true religious freedom, protecting our most vulnerable citizens, real medical research, the integrity of our electoral system, the fiscal stability of the nation, the right not to be tortured, and the future of our rivers, forests and the entire freaking planet – everything – depends on taking back at least one branch of the legislature, and the House is the best bet.
This is why I believe the case is as strong as for any election, that if you take the potential for pickups in currently Republican held districts in a bloc, the Vermont-At Large election is arguably the most important one in the nation for Democrats, and for America.
So that’s reason one. If that weren’t reason enough, there is another more personal one – and that is Senator Welch himself.
As I mentioned, several folks have been frustrated over Senator Welch’s recent legislative performance. Most over policy issues – I’ll tackle those in a moment. My own frustrations of late have been more campaign oriented. As important as this race is, I’ve been panicky that he didn’t used his unique and powerful platform – the office of President Pro Tempore of the State Senate – for full political advantage, both by stepping in the spotlight himself and showing political leadership, or by bringing up important issues that could shine an ill light on Rainville. Instead he chose to make few waves, try not to piss anybody off, while attending a lot of insider fundraisers.
This is the strategy of a leader in the polls, such as a well-monied incumbent. It is a strategy appropriate to the last Leahy campaign (also run by Campaign Manager Carolyn Dwyer) which was more of a coronation than a campaign. But Welch was not ahead in the polls. And this race will clearly be a slugfest rather than a coronation. Keeping his powder so very dry until after the session – by which time Rainville may have finally gotten her act together – was a very, very dangerous gamble.
But that was then and this is now. Rainville didn’t get her act together. Her act utterly imploded. She continued to shoot herself in the foot so badly that she tanked her own poll numbers, so that by the time the session was over, they were no longer neck-and-neck, Welch had a significant advantage among the sector of the electorate that was paying attention.
Under the guidance of Washington Republicans, Rainville is repairing her campaign, but she is now at a disadvantage. The campaign many like myself had wanted to see from Welch has now arrived. Welch is staffed up and running a smart campaign. Not only is he releasing substantive issue pieces (at this point they’re all “safe” issue pieces sure, but hopefully when the time comes to get more daring he won’t shy away), but his campaign is doing well what Democratic campaigns never do well in Vermont: rapid response. From the AP:
Republican Martha Rainville called a news conference to announce her views on FEMA a day ahead of the official start of hurricane season. But before she even was able to get to the podium in her Williston campaign headquarters Democrat Peter Welch’s campaign had issued a news release announcing essentially the same thing.
Now that’s impressive.
Perhaps it’s the Democratic partnership with Bernie Sanders, who has always been the master of rapid response. Whatever the reason, the Democratic tendency to be too complacent by trusting too much in their own perceived communications skills — to spend inordinate time micromanaging exactly how responses should be finessed in order to micro-surgically deliver the content without collaterally pissing anybody off — has given way to the understanding that a possibly imperfect response to an attack or proposal by an opponent, is vastly preferable to an over-thought, narrowly targeted response that comes too late to matter. Perception is reality in politics, and a robust rapid response system gives the perception of strength.
Maybe it’s the return of my inner Candide, but I truly believe that this campaign understands that you do not cede any ground to the opposition because fighting back doesn’t meet your campaign narrative. I think (I hope) that the Welch campaign understands that you don’t insist on playing chess while your opponent is playing paintball.
Now, on the matter of policy, and whether or not Welch is “progressive enough”…
Do you know what the most destructive quote in politics is? It’s the oft-repeated and fawned over line:
“Politics is the art of the possible.”
-Otto Von Bismarck
Feh. This single line and the sentiment behind it has lead to the steady marginalizing of anything that could be considered visionary from so many elected Democrats. It is the poison of cynicism masked in rhetorical elegance. It is both the implicit permission to surrender on policy, as well as a suggestion that working towards truly far-reaching goals is immature and unrealistic. If only the following were as readily quoted:
“Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable.”
-John Kenneth Galbraith
A little silly, sure. But it’s true. We are looking at the disastrous all around us. And while it may be unpalatable to step out in front and brave the inevitable slings and arrows that come from advancing visionary, progressive positions, disaster is simply not an option.
When I spoke ever-so-briefly with Senator Welch about health care at a forum in 2005, it was clear to me that the complaints from liberals were off the mark. Now I don’t really the know the guy, but it seems to me that Welch has never “sold out” by backing away from many leftist positions such as single-payer health care. He hasn’t sacrificed his opinions at all. What has perhaps taken a hit is his idealism as he has come to see politics as “the art of what’s possible.”
Now seriously, who is to say what’s possible? Welch – and many others – are battle-scarred veterans of an ongoing culture war. As politicians like him gain in skill and policy prowess, there is usually a corresponding drop in what they truly believe they can accomplish. Do you really think Welch wouldn’t do back flips of joy if he woke up tomorrow and a single payer system had magically descended upon us? Or if George Bush were suddenly impeached? Of course he would, but to him and many other of our most skilled politicians, such visions have become pipe dreams.
As he is, Peter Welch would be an excellent addition to the US House. He would do Vermont proud. Indeed, he would probably be one of the best and most reliable progressive voices in Washington. To be the best – to throw out his preconceptions of the “possible” with a re-injection of his genuine progressive social vision, he just needs a little inspiration.
And I can think of nothing more inspiring than getting elected to the US House of Representatives as part of a new majority primed and ready to take back our Constitutional Republic from those who would tear it to shreds in their own self-interest.
Now get out there, write him a check or lick some envelopes, and feel good about it…