( – promoted by odum)
It’s time to wrestle with the big question on everybody’s mind of late; that is, who – after two landslide victories in his back pocket – is going to step up and challenge Governor Douglas in next year’s election for Governor? It’s a question with some urgency, as whoever is had better get moving in late Spring/early Summer, or they shouldn’t even bother. The Dem candidate needs to look to models like the NH Dean Presidential campaign to build a groundgame unlike one any of their statewide candidates have been willing to put the resources behind before, and the biggest resource in such an equation is time. Just to make it harder, they should expect to do so with little help from the state party and zero help from the national one, as it will be considered a terrible investment (although they’ll still be expected to raise scads into the Dem Coordinated Campaign, unfortunately… but that’s an issue for another diary).
So, who do you think? Contrary to people’s assumptions, there’s been nothing to indicate that any of the Dem elected big-dogs want to go head-to-head with big Jim – and yes, that includes Shumlin and Symington. Shummy may have it on his mind, but he’d probably be more inclined to join the inevitable stampede for the office that will ensue the day Mr. Douglas decides he’s done. People are wondering about Matt Dunne, particularly Peter Freyne who, rather inexplicably, referred to him has Douglas’ “worst nightmare.” Dunne has the advantage that neither Parker nor Clavelle had – that he’s now been on a statewide ballot and the voters have therefore been properly introduced – but I’m among those that think it’s hardly enough. What I’m hoping to see is Dunne refine his style and campaign strategy and take another run at Dubie. With that challenge hanging out there un-met, it’s hard to believe he’d be considered a viable candidate.
In fact, if you look at the realities of numbers and statistics, of the current crop of Dem pols, the one on paper who would have the best shot is former multi-term Lieutenant Governor and current Chittenden Senator Doug Racine. Think about it – voters outside his district know him, and have elected him to statewide office despite the none-too-insignificant anti-Burlington-area feelings out there in greater Vermont. And of course, there’s the fact that he’s the only Dem who’s run against Douglas for the top spot that made a respectable showing (only losing by 3 points – and then, thanks to Con Hogan who apparently pulled virtually zero R votes). But Doug is the Rodney Dangerfield of Vermont politics. There’s this idea out there that he’s not interested in or capable of engaging in “serious” rough and tumble campaigning. There was even subtle eye-rolling that fed that insider-narrative as a result of his last Lite Guv run when he became the first (and only, I believe) candidate ever to win a statewide election in any state with a publicly-financed operation.
So the narrative is unfair and largely driven by “conventional wisdom” insider snootery, in my opinion. But having said that, I don’t think he’d be the candidate either – at least not this time.
So who, then?
Being out of the elections business has allowed me the glorious freedom to lose the political gamesman/tactician and re-embrace my inner idealist, but I’ll admit that the big statewide races still being out the tactician in me. I can’t help it. Tactically speaking, it’s likely that most folks on the Dem political bench would get waxed by Douglas unless they were inclined to really, really take some risks and think outside the box. That aint gonna happen with this bench. And I still believe that Progs statewide peaked with Anthony Pollina’s third place showing with a mere quarter of the vote his last time out for Lite Guv.
So the Dem candidate is going to have to be from outside the standard political ladder – but is going to have to be someone who can go a long way towards funding the run him-or-herself, or through his-or-her connections. Worse case scenario says I’m describing a Tarrant-style “vanity” candidate, but best-case means some genuine fresh blood.
And yes, this leads you right to the business community via campaign contribution lists that give you some sense of what business leaders are liberal and politically minded. There are some interesting names on some of these lists, such as the Blittersdorfs of NRG Systems fame and success. With the wind power boom on the edge of happening, though, it’s hard to imagine either of them breaking now for a statewide political run. Also, there’s that pesky Chittenden County factor again.
One name that leaps out at me is Bob Stiller, founder of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. GMC is based in Waterbury (one of those swing towns) and the company is well-regarded by almost everybody as a success story and as a fair trade promoter. Stiller has not been shy about supporting Dem candidates and the business-leader-gone-politico schtick has definite crossover appeal. His involvement in the promotion of meditation might get him some wannabe-Governor-Moonbeam jibes, but it might make some other groovy lefties less nervous about promoting a big business guy.
But in truth, I’m just musing, here. I don’t know the guy at all. Never met him. He might be a disaster. Maybe he has a speaking voice like Pee Wee Herman. Who knows?
The point is that now’s the time, and everybody I know is scratching their heads.
Ideas?