We all think, or at least hope, that things are going to go well tomorrow. I think we can be pretty confident of the House, but the polls suggest it’s going to be very close in the Senate.

That’s what leads me to my nightmare: The votes are all in Tuesday night and the Senate is split 50-50.

Is there anyone who thinks the R’s won’t offer Lieberman something big, like the chair of Judiciary, or maybe Homeland Security, to get him to switch?

And is there anyone who thinks he won’t do it?

From yesterday’s Salon:

Nov. 5, 2006 | New Rule: Controlling Congress is for closers. Listen up, Democrats, it’s as simple as ABC: Always Be Closing. First prize? Controlling congressional committees, with subpoena power. Second prize: set of steak knives. Third prize? You’re fired.

The election is four days away, and I’m through dicking around with you. Here are your talking points:

1) When they say, “Democrats will raise taxes,” you say, “We have to, because some asshole spent all the money in the world cutting Paris Hilton’s taxes and not killing Osama bin Laden.” In just six years the national debt has doubled. You can’t keep spending money you don’t take in, that’s not even elementary economics, that’s just called “Don’t be Michael Jackson.”

Tired of watching all those nasty, angry people on Tarant’s ads?

I sure am. That’s why I decided to share some of the particularly vile advertising the Republicans are using across the country. You may have read about them, or heard of them, but when you actually see and hear them some of them are shockingly bad.

Let’s start out in the state I grew up in, the Garden State. Now associated with the Sopranos. Here’s what the R’s do when they have an Italian opponent.

How about radio? In Indiana they’re running a bizarre ad that talks about how a vote for Democratic candidate Brad Ellsworth is a vote for Nancy Pelosi and the homosexual agenda.

They’re talking about taxes, too.

And national security.

Don’t worry, I saved the best for last. If you haven’t seen the racist commercial the RNC is running against Harold Ford in Tennessee, you really, really have to watch this. My wife couldn’t believe it wasn’t a joke, but it’s really true.

Is there any comment that could possibly match this? Maybe the fact that Ken Mehlman doesn’t see a racial issue there. Or that Ken Mehlman, the head of the Republican National Committee, says that the RNC (yup, you heard them say they’re responsible for the content of this ad) can’t do anything about it.

At our town committee meeting the other night we were sharing predictions of what’s going to happen this year. My prediction, which I’m sticking with at the moment, is that we take the House and Senate.

Nationally, the R’s don’t seem to be too confident. Here’s a leaked document showing how they’re sizing up their contested races, which is what they’re using to redirect their money.

Even if we don’t take back Congress, there should be some pretty gratifying wins for us. My favorites are the likelihood of ousting Santorum (adults only) (although I’m not happy about Casey), getting rid of Conrad Burns in Montana (that race was enough to get my son to register to vote out there, where he’s studying at the University of Montana), and taking Delay’s seat.

Cross posted from Rational Resistance:

It’s like this. Earlier yesterday he was saying that the Afghan war against Taliban guerrillas can never be won militarily and called for efforts to bring the Islamic militia and its supporters into the Afghan government.

The Tennessee Republican said he learned from briefings that Taliban fighters were too numerous and had too much popular support to be defeated on the battlefield.

That’s right, the guys who made Afghanistan a safe haven for bin Laden and his al Qaeda killers, and created a reign of repressive Islamic terror, they’re going to be our new pals. “Come on back, all is forgiven!”

What a great strategy! This isn’t even declare victory and go home, this is literally hand the country over to the people who helped to attack us, and who we threw out of the government when we invaded.

Well, apparently Dr. Bill started thinking about what he had said, and it occurred to him that it might not play too well back here in America, or where some of us live in the reality-based community, so he’s changed his tune. Between 4:01, when the AP story went live, and 5:45, here’s his new line:

America will Never Negotiate with Terrorists or Support their Entry into Afghanistan’s Government

Written by Bill Frist, M.D.

Notice something? He doesn’t actually claim he didn’t say what he said. It’s a non-denial denial.

So I have a new campaign slogan for him and he can use it free of charge:

“I was against the Taliban before I was for them.”

How many times since 2001 have we heard people ask, “Why do they hate us?” or “Why do they hate America?”

I submit that this is the wrong question. Look at all we’ve done in the world since that day. It strikes me that the relevant question is why do they not hate us more than they do? And I don’t just mean Islamic countries, I mean the whole world. When the NIE came out that proved that the war in Iraq made Islamic terrorism more dangerous, that’s not something that just happened to America. It’s made terrorism more dangerous for the whole world. Luckily we haven’t been hit again on our soil since 2001, but what about England and Spain, and other places we haven’t even heard of? Oh yeah, and Iraq?

But they still want to talk to us, because, no matter what Bush and his accomplices do, there are still people around the world who truly believe in American ideals.

Mary Hooper, Montpelier’s mayor, is traveling to Montpellier, France, to participate in a ceremony where the mayor of Montpellier will sign a mayors’ declaration against nuclear weapons, a statement Hooper has already signed.

“Obviously we can’t wait for the federal government to be talking about this,” Hooper says of the mayors’ anti-nuke campaign. “People need to be talking about it locally. If people in leadership positions — perhaps at every level, but certainly on the local level — say this is important, and we need to be paying attention to this issue, then maybe we can make a change.”

Mary’s paying for her own trip, so come out Saturday night to support the effort:

“Montpelier to Montpellier: A Musical Sendoff,” Christ Church Episcopal, Montpelier, September 30, 7 p.m. Info, 229-2340.

( – promoted by Jack McCullough)

Some readers may be old enough to remember John Dean as the White House counsel who blew the whistle on Nixon’s Watergate crimes; younger readers may be only vaguely aware of him.

If you don’t know of him, you should. John Dean came out of Watergate a changed man, and in recent years has written critically of the current trend of doctrinaire extremism that has taken over the Republican Party. He has also written widely in defense of civil liberties.

This Friday John Dean will be speaking at a fundraiser for the Vermont chapter of the ACLU. One thing we’ve learned during the Bush Administration is that we need the ACLU more than ever, and this is a chance to hear John Dean speak and to support the organization.

John Dean, White House legal counsel to President Nixon during the unfolding of the Watergate scandal, will speak at an ACLU-Vermont fundraiser Friday, Oct. 6 at 7 p.m. at the Sheraton Hotel and Conference Center in South Burlington.

As much as any single individual during the Watergate era, Dean was responsible for identifying the abuse of power undertaken by the Nixon administration as it sought to solidify power and silence critics. Since that time, Dean has been an incisive analyst of the American political scene.

The topic of Dean’s Vermont address is “Spying, Secrecy, and Presidential Power.” Tickets are $20, and may be obtained through the ACLU (802-223-6304, or info@acluvt.org), at Bear Pond Books of Montpelier, at the Vermont Book Shop in Middlebury, and at the Peace and Justice Center in Burlington. A reception will follow; tickets for that event (which includes admission to the talk) are $60.

You can also find out more at their web page.

The news is clear now: the war in Iraq has increased the terrorist threat.

So what do we do about it?

Or better yet, since most of us aren’t running for Congress, maybe Martha Rainville should answer a few questions:

1. Do you agree that the country is more vulnerable to terrorist attack than it was five years ago?

2. Do you agree with the retired generals who have concluded that the war in Iraq has strengthened the position of the terrorists?

3. Do you agree with Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Pat Roberts and Democratic Representative Pete Stark that the new National Intelligence Estimate should be declassified?

4. Is “more of the same” still an effective strategy in Iraq?

Here’s how to get in touch with her: info@martharainville.com

Report Says Education Officials Violated Rules

Department of Education officials violated conflict of interest rules when awarding grants to states under President Bush’s billion-dollar reading initiative, and steered contracts to favored textbook publishers, the department’s inspector general said yesterday.

Which of the following is acceptable:

a) Calling an entire country “evil”
b) Calling three whole countries “evil”
c) Calling one misguided president the Devil?

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