All posts by GMD

Primary contest!

How about a game? Be the GMD user who guesses the Democratic gubernatorial primary percentage spread closest to the final result, and you’ll win your choice of a GMD beer stein or coffee mug from cafepress! To enter, simply put your comment in this thread containing your projected spread (e.g. “Candidate A = 24%, Candidate B = 23%, Candidate C = 18%… etc”).

You should also include your answer to the tiebreaker question (should it be necessary to break a tie): what will the primary turnout be?

Have your comment in the thread timestamped before the close of the polls today to be eligible – and everybody and anybody can enter (even GMD front pagers!)

Have fun and don’t forget to vote!

Markowitz takes GMD user poll in come-from-behind victory

For most of the weekend, Matt Dunne led the unscientific polling. Late surges followed from Shumlin and Racine supporters squeezing Racine into the lead. But in the last hour of the voting, Markowitz supporters mobilized and vaulted the distant fourth place candidate well out in front.

Here are the results:

Thanks for voting. What do you think? Does this “little poll” mean anything? Online polls are notoriously sketchy on the one hand, but on the other hand, this is little Vermont, and if the primary turns out 50,000 voters, these 724 respondents represent nearly 1.5% of voters!

Final Push: Pledge $100 for the nominee the day after the gubernatorial primary

Thermometer+ChartAs the name on the button atop this site notes, the goal was 1000. 1000 Vermonters who want to see the Governorship return to Democratic hands, committing to help offset the financial impact of the contested primary by pledging to send the winner – whichever candidate it is – $100 on August 25th, the day after the primary.

Set up as a Facebook group, the membership has reached 287, plus another 5 who emailed or posted that they were in, but were not facebook members. That’s 292 for $29,200 from the Vermont netroots and social networking community so far.

1000 is a long way off, but at the very least, we can still push that number to 500, and supply a much-needed $50,000 infusion to refill the coffers. So, if you haven’t joined already, please click on the link and sign up, or indicate on this thread your interest. And if you’re on Facebook, help us unleash the power of social media by inviting your friends to join.

We have 2 weeks to go… help us get the word out!

Obama addresses the progressive blogosphere

Although it was a surprise message delivered at this years “Netroots Nation” progressive blogger conference, the video from President Obama is clearly meant for readers of this site as well, as we are all members of the greater progressive blog community.

Anatomy of a smear machine: Gibbs, Douglas (& Salmon?) take aim at Markowitz on Dubie’s behalf

When Jim Douglas was running for Senate a long, long time ago, it was congressional pay raises (and the accusation that Senator Leahy was “squealing like a stuck pig.”) Against Racine, it was a baseless attempt to tag him as a “flip flopper.” Scudder Parker was, nonsensically, “Mr. Property Tax.” Clavelle was red-baited as a sandinista. Symington was dinged on her financial releases.

The way Jim Douglas and his election machine played the game was to avoid the issue by finding a way to fan a triviality into a character attack. In other words, politics by smear. It’s dishonorable stuff, and Douglas seemed to relish it. On the other hand, it suggests he understood just how weak he was on the issues.

In any case, the question has been whether heir apparent Brian Dubie would resort to the same playbook, and it seems the answer is “yes.” In his case, though, he seems content to let the machine’s usual suspects do the dirty work for him, softening up the target they’ve apparently decided they are most likely to face in the General Election: Secretary of State Deb Markowitz. They’ve done so in a coordinated attack over the past few days, and will continue in an upcoming report on nursing licensing fees due to hit the papers soon. Details after the flip.

The first salvo was launched by GOP Secretary of State candidate and former Douglas mouthpiece Jason Gibbs. Gibbs launched a scathing, over-the-top attack on Markowitz in a campaign press release – a release that didn’t even mention either his primary opponent, Chris Roy, or potential Democratic nominees Charles Merriman or Jim Condos:

Last week, the Secretary of State struggled through three consecutive challenges:

Few Vermonters had been adequately notified of the new August 24th Primary Election.  (See also:  Rutland Herald, Capital Beat Column, July 11, 2010)

Ballot errors prevented early and absentee voting to begin on time in some communities. (See also: Burlington Free Press, Vt Buzz, “Early voting? Not so fast”, July 12, 2010)

The insecurity of the statewide voter checklist was illustrated when it crashed and left Town Clerks and others unable to access important public information (See also: WCAX, “Vermont Voter Checklist Trouble, July 14th, 2010).

Everyone makes mistakes.  But, with the right leadership, these issues could have been handled with the level of accountability Vermonters expect and deserve from their officials–and they could have been avoided all together.  Nevertheless, in each case, the incumbent’s focus was on deflecting responsibility for the problem instead of solving it.

[…] Town Clerks tell me that sending mixed messages–or providing no clear leadership at all–is all too common.  

(Read the full release here). Now its certainly common practice for a candidate running for an open position being vacated by a member of the opposing party to attack the incumbent for the purposes of then tying an opponent to that negative characterization, but again – this release draws no such connections. As VPR’s John Dillon reported this morning:

(Dillon) But Gibbs insisted he is not criticizing Markowitz personally but is trying to show how he would run the office differently. And he said he has not coordinated his strategy with Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie, the GOP gubernatorial candidate.

[…](Dillon) The blast from Gibbs was not the only criticism from Republicans over the early voting glitches. Gibbs’ former boss – Governor Jim Douglas – had this to say last week.

(Douglas) “It’s disappointing. Folks showed up Monday morning in some communities and the ballots weren’t there. I don’t understand why there wasn’t an announcement of some kind maybe at the end of last week saying they’d be delayed in some places.”

(Dillon) Douglas was asked whose fault was it? Markowitz’s, or the Legislature, which moved up the date of the primary.

(Douglas) “Well, the Democrats.” (laughter)

It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that Gibbs is attempting to soften up Markowitz on Dubie’s behalf.

Note that Jim Douglas as well has made comments to the press, following up on his Lieutenant’s themes – all of which is to lead up to a rare Dubie appearance on Vermont Edition. Understandably, Republicans are concerned about Dubie’s performance when left unscripted. With the timing of this attack, Douglas and Gibbs (working with Dubie) are theoretically able to steer the line of questioning toward the perception of impropriety in Secretary Markowitz’s office, leaving Dubie to face friendly, softball questions and an opportunity to wax superior to his potential opponent.

And this is only part 1 of what seems to be a more sophisticated and sustained attack than we’ve generally seen from the Douglas-Dubie machine. Part 2? That comes soon, with the release of a story being worked on by the Vermont Press Bureau, which brings Auditor Tom Salmon into the equation.

Back in the Spring, the Board that supervises the professional regulation of Vermont nurses (a 10-member board made up of 10 Douglas appointees) requested Salmon undertake an audit of the professional licensure system they are tasked with supervising – a system administered by the Secretary of State’s office. Salmon’s office returned a positive audit, concluding that the Board’s funds were secure and properly accounted for. Salmon did, curiously, make some suggestions above and beyond what was asked for, but they didn’t seem to amount to anything noteworthy (the audit can be seen here).

According to sources, what’s now being shopped to the media is that one of those tertiary recommendations was that the Secretary of State ask for an opinion from the Attorney General’s office as to whether or not the office was using too much of that money for its internal administrative purposes. On its face, that would seem to be a strangely absurd recommendation, as that is largely the point of the fees in the first place – although they also are used for some other, legislatively defined pools.

But more significant is the fact that no such recommendation seems to appear in the linked audit above.

The Secretary of State’s office – which reportedly did respond positively to some of the extraneous recommendations from the Auditor’s office – did not seek any such opinion from the AG, which – again – there is no evidence from the audit that it was even encouraged to.

And now, months later, this is being pushed by Republicans behind the scenes, channeled through their contacts in the professional media, and morphed into some sort of scandal. Exactly how remains rather mysterious, and presumably more details of the attack will emerge when the report hits the stands (if it even sees print). Presumably, the GOP machine wants to raise doubts about Markowitz’s capacity for responsibly managing public funds, but again, based on what’s available publicly, it’s hard to imagine how that argument is being made in this instance.

Even though it won’t work (because there’s nothing there), all of this makes one thing abundantly clear: the Douglas smear machine is now the Dubie smear machine, and it is in overdrive this year. Gibbs, Salmon, Douglas and others are all prioritizing the promotion of Brian Dubie into the state’s top spot.

And all of this avoids any real engagement on the issues, of course. Why? Perhaps because, somewhere in there, they know they’re at a disadvantage on those terms.

So scandals will be manufactured and aspersions will be cast until one seems to stick, and in the process, protect Dubie from having to answer questions he can’t handle, or at the very least bump his lack of executive competence from the headlines.

No doubt this is only the tip of the ugliness iceberg. Brace yourselves.

(NOTE: The GMD byline represents collaborative work by multiple – but not necessarily all – site contributors)

Hoffer: “Flanagan and Salmon campaign finance filings would fail audit”

Auditor candidate Doug Hoffer's campaign comes out of the gate with a laser directed at both his primary candidate and the Republican incumbent – and it may well be sharp and tantalizing enough for the semi-engaged legacy media to sit up and take note. From a press release: 

Democratic candidate for State Auditor Doug Hoffer today said the July 15 campaign finance reports of Ed Flanagan and Tom Salmon are plagued with errors and that both candidates should file amended reports to clear up the confusion.

“For another office we might think of this as merely unfortunate,” Hoffer said. “But the State Auditor is called upon to inspect the financial reporting of state agencies. I think at a minimum candidates for Auditor should be able to properly complete these simple forms.”

The press release is remarkably thorough, even including links to the filings cited by Hoffer. If this gets any coverage, it could prove a powerful line of attack. Below the fold is the rest of the release.

According to documents available on the Secretary of State’s website, Ed Flanagan’s current campaign finance report is the latest in a series of incorrect and contradictory reports.

· A handwritten note on Flanagan’s July 15 2010 report refers to $27,087.15 in available funds “FROM PREVIOUS CAMPAIGNS.” Going back at least six years, there is no record in any of Flanagan’s previous campaign finance filings documenting this carryover.

· Flanagan’s July 15 2009 report was stamped received by the Secretary of State on June 24, 2010, eleven months late. Flanagan’s signature on the report appears to read July 15, 2010. Again, a hand-scribbled notation refers to previous campaign funds carrying over, but going back at least six years, there is no record in any of Flanagan’s previous campaign finance filings documenting this carryover.

· All six of Flanagan’s 2008 campaign finance reports (dating from July through December) appear to be signed on April 30, 2009. These range in tardiness between 4.5 and 9 months.

· Dating all the way back to Flanagan’s 2006 campaign finance statements, the amount “$0” is listed for carryover from previous campaigns.

· Flanagan’s December 2006 report shows total contributions of $37,708.36 and total expenditures of $32,610.32. No subsequent report reflects the apparent surplus funds.

· Flanagan’s October 27, 2008 report (signed on April 30, 2009) includes mysterious contributions totaling $2,300 for that period but no future reports (which are cumulative in nature) include this. In fact, neither Flanagan’s November 14, 2008 or December 15, 2008 report lists any amount under total contributions for the campaign to date.

 

Hoffer says that Republican State Auditor Tom Salmon also appears to have erred in his recent campaign finance report. Hoffer said Salmon had details of contributions and expenditures which should not have been included because they had previously been reported by Salmon in his July 15 2009 report – a year earlier. The Secretary of State’s forms are very clear about this.

· In last week’s finance report, Salmon detailed 14 contributions over $100 for the reporting period on page 3, totaling $7,150, but on page 2 reports only $2,200 of these contributions. Eleven of the contributions were previously reported in his July 15, 2009 report.

· Salmon says on page 2 of the report that total expenditures for the period are $2,167.17, but the detailed listing of expenses on page 4 is $3,262.65. It includes two payments previously reported in July 2009.

· Double-counting contributions, even on one page of the report, can give people a false impression of fund-raising success. In fact, Salmon’s proper contributions since July 2009 included only three above the $100 mark (and only one in 2010).

 

Hoffer suggested that both Flanagan and Salmon should file amended reports to make sure there’s no confusion about their campaign finances.

“These are not transparent filings in my opinion,” Hoffer said. “These are the types of mistakes that give auditors and CPAs headaches.”

 

Links to Finance Reports from Senator Flanagan

July 2010 report http://vermont-elections.org/elections1/71510flanagane.pdf

July 2009 report (submitted http://vermont-elections.org/elections1/flanagane71509.pdf

December 2008 (submitted April 2009) http://170.222.200.108:8080/isysquery/9dbef326-52eb-490b-aa45-935ec4493171/19/doc/flanagane121508.txt

November 2008 (submitted April 2009) http://170.222.200.108:8080/isysquery/9dbef326-52eb-490b-aa45-935ec4493171/18/doc/flanagane111408.txt

October 2008 (submitted April 2009) http://170.222.200.108:8080/isysquery/9dbef326-52eb-490b-aa45-935ec4493171/17/doc/flanagane102708.txt

August 2008 (submitted April 2009) http://170.222.200.108:8080/isysquery/9dbef326-52eb-490b-aa45-935ec4493171/21/doc/flanagane82508.txt

July 2008 (submitted April 2009) http://170.222.200.108:8080/isysquery/9dbef326-52eb-490b-aa45-935ec4493171/20/doc/flanagane73108.txt

July 2007 http://170.222.200.108:8080/isysquery/9dbef326-52eb-490b-aa45-935ec4493171/24/doc/flanagane71607.TXT earlier reports available on the Secretary of State’s site

Links to Finance Reports from State Auditor Salmon

July 2010 http://vermont-elections.org/elections1/71510salmont.pdf

July 2009 http://vermont-elections.org/elections1/salmont71509.pdf

Other financials

  • Brian Dubie reported $943,960.72 to date and has spent $455,116.18 leaving $488,844.54 on hand.
  • The Democratic candidates combined have raised a staggering $1,491,404.35, indicating a lot of financial support among a lot of people to turn the Governor’s office Democratic. As long as the losing candidates open up their fundraising lists for the winner, the Democratic nominee should be able to compete fine financially when it counts.
  • In the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Democrat Steve Howard reported $50,804.17 raised. Republicans Phil Scott and Mark Snelling reported $47,458.85 and $78,906.80 respectively. Democrat Chris Bray did not file a report by the deadline.
  • In the Auditor’s race, incumbent Tom Salmon has raised a paltry $10475, which isn’t appreciably more than newly announced relative political unknown, Democrat Doug Hoffer who reported $8135. Democrat Ed Flanagan reported no fundraising, but has a $27,087.15 rollover from his previous campaigns.
  • Secretary of State reports will be forthcoming, as well as more detailed analysis by the various GMD front pagers as emails, scans and musings have been in a little more circulation.

(NOTE: The GMD byline represents collaborative work by multiple – but not necessarily all – site contributors)

Markowitz, Bartlett report funds

The Markowitz campaign meets financial expectations. From a press release:

Today, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz announced that 1812 Vermonters from 177 cities and towns across the state have invested in her campaign to jumpstart Vermont’s economy. Markowitz raised nearly $524,000, which is twice the amount raised by her nearest Democratic opponent.

[…] More that 1440 voters gave less than $100, and the average donation of these sustaining donors was $64.50.

In addition, Susan Bartlett reported raising $70,919.73. This puts her at a fundraising level not too far off from Doug Racine, who’s to-date total included only about $100,000 raised during the same period (since last summer).

Fifth Annual Hamburger Summit this weekend

(Putting this back on top since it’s today 🙂 – promoted by JulieWaters)

A reminder – the big family friendly gathering that has come to be known as the “blogger barbecue” moves back to its North Beach (Burlington) birthplace this Saturday, July 17th. Come mingle with members of the GMD and VDB communities, along with local and statewide political figures, activists and professional staffers. Don’t think the political blogging set should be getting so overtly chummy with the very people they cover? Come and tell them so! All are welcome and encouraged.

       

  

Date: Saturday, July 17, 2010

Time: 1:00pm – 5:00pm

Location: North Beach, Burlington, Vermont

Invite your facebook friends!