I’m not exactly sure how or why, but I was invited to become a member of a daily polling group at the new political aggregate news site politicshome.com founded by a small group of British news professionals from places like the BBC and the Observer. The group is dubbed the “Online 100” and politicshome labels it:
…the 100 leading online voices in the United States…. The panel includes Arianna Huffington, Karl Rove, Joe Klein, Joe Trippi, Mike Allen, Mark Halperin, Mark Blumenthal, Dana Milbank, Jonah Goldberg, John Fund, Jake Tapper, Chuck Todd, Marc Ambinder and Andrew Sullivan.
Weird, huh? I figure the reason even Karl Rove is admitting that McCain’s ads have gone too far is because my good influence is rubbing off on him…
But I digress. The first Online100 question was something to the effect of “What do you think Obama’s biggest mistake to date has been?” (I’m hoping for a McCain question along the same lines any time now…). We had a very few multiple choice options, and my pick was with the majority – that he hadn’t been aggressive enough in response to Palin.
But my real answer wasn’t there. Obama’s biggest mistake – and it was a doozy – was his decision to choke off all support of 527 groups (the independent expenditure organizations that run issue ads during elections and are usually more bare knuckle in their attacks). Democratic activists and funders dutifully accommodated the Obama campaigns desire to consolidate any and all anti-McCain messaging under their direct control. It sounds like a good move from a management perspective, but if there’s one thing I’ve seen kill a campaign, it’s a dearth of diverse messaging and a lack of full engagement by constituent support groups. When such decisions become the sole purview of a tiny handful of people, the result is never good.
And that result? Well, we’ve all seen it, haven’t we? An Obama campaign slow on the uptake, that has allowed its lead in the polls to fall away quickly due to their non response to McCain and Palin. McCain has been doing nothing that shouldn’t have been expected – call it the Audacity of Audacity. It’s Roveism with McCain’s own flavor. Karl Rove has never been the genius he’s been made out to be. What he really is, is a sort of savant; he never really got the conventions and scruples of electoral politics, so he figured screw ’em. There was nothing too outrageous or revolting he would do, and with each dose of outrageous campaign slime, the Washington establishment would simply throw up their hands and be “shocked, shocked!” that he would do such a thing. They’d then figure that everyone would be so appalled by it all, that shame and remorse as well as a public backlash would keep him from descending into such slime again.
But Rove – the bull in the china shop – smashed all the china, which was of course what he was trying to do. Rather than step back from his success, he repeated it – over and over again. The Dems in DC continued to be shocked and incapable of responding through their shock, and so it went.
McCain is following the same playbook, but this time the slime he’s slinging isn’t even tethered to an intentionally skewed version of reality in order to grant it a fig leaf of moral justification. He’s just pulling it out of thin air. Funny that this simple (and logical) next iteration of Rovism is enough to cause even Karl himself to recoil a bit.
The point is, that there was a degree of ugliness that was inevitable that the campaign proper would not be equipped to respond to. But the Obama general election campaign was partially predicated on a sort of Gandhian approach; if we just step up honorably before the cameras and allow ourselves to be unjustly clubbed bloody before the eyes of the world, public sentiment will turn our way.
Maybe some day, but Obama had the timescale wrong. Eventually I believe voters will turn against that crap, but only after the level of egregiousness builds to a critical mass – which is going to take several election cycles, not simply a couple of news cycles.
So Obama cut some of his best tools off at the knees, unilaterally disarming before a candidate who will clearly stoop to anything.
And if you’re one of those devotees who believes that Obama is so unassailable, so perfect that any and all campaign criticism amounts to concern trolling (an ugly accusation when thrown against allies, designed to demand and enforce an ugly sort of groupthink), here’s the brainlock for you; the Obama campaign itself has realized its mistake.
(Obama makes no mistakes… but Obama is saying he made a mistake… and Obama makes no mistakes, so its not a mistake that Obama made a mistake… but Obama makes no mistakes… Norman, coordinate! Norman, coordinate!)
A few weeks ago, the Obama campaign reversed course and decided maybe the 527’s aren’t such a bad idea after all, all things considered. But building a 527 media machine from scratch takes time and money – neither of which magically appear at the drop of a hat.
So the greater Democratic power broker community has become as edgy as much of the activist community (aw – aint it nice when we all come together…?), and news is out today that they’re working to make something happen – and fast, given that we’re into the home stretch, and ground lost may or may not be easily made up. From TPM:
Several senior Democratic strategists unaffiliated with Obama’s campaign convened a private conference call late last week with at least four dozen of the party’s most prolific donors to progressive causes and outside groups — a call designed to instill a sense among donors that things are “pretty damn urgent” right now, one of the organizers of the call tells me.
The call is yet another sign that donors and outside operatives — who had earlier gotten the message from Obama that he doesn’t want such activity — now recognize that Team Obama is privately hoping for such efforts to gear up in earnest.
Now I’ve gotten a bit cynical in my old age (ya think?), and people, I know, are hard to un-set from their ways. If Obama wins this thing – and I still think he will – all the true believers will post their pontifications mocking and scoffing at all of us “concern trolls” who had the audacity to speak up and say “trouble” when we saw it. The Obama course correction will be retconned, not as a change of strategy during the heat of election season, but will be evangelically revealed by the unofficial prophets of the campaign to all have been part of the master plan all along, so everyone should return to their previously scheduled fealty (Note to NJ: not referring to you or your comment of the other day… this is different).
Ironically, in doing so, they’ll be shortchanging the Obama campaign on what – during the primary – was its strongest asset; its adaptability. Following a seamless, unwavering master plan is the polar opposite of adapting, and by denying any mistakes or bad choices from a campaign that had been quick on its feet to recover from them, they miss the real picture of what’s been going on.
Now lets be clear – Obama’s still on the right end of most of the metrics in this race – even if barely. And I stand by my video of last week where I told folks to calm down about Palin. By guess is that Palinmania is peaking, and the media pushback has begun. I suspect the entire McCain campaign has peaked. And I hope I’m right.
But the fact is, that campaign adaptability has not been on display in recent weeks, and the reason for the hints of an Obama resurgence have been McCain’s screw-ups, rather than Obama’s maneuvering. Obama has only started firing back himself, and if the campaign does go down, I believe it will be primarily because Obama made this doozy of a 527 mistake and took way too long to realize it was a mistake.
But let’s just all keep working to make sure it doesn’t come to that…

