UPDATE 2: See? See?! I just saw the Times Argus this morning! I’m telling you, its already happening! Arrrrrrrrgggggghhh!!!!!!
UPDATE: Okay, there’s been a promise extracted from me to stop beating up on Illuzzi in regards to a Governor run. Again, I give the guy lots of props for some of his stances, but I think folks were detecting that I was really beating up on those that promote the idea of a run by proxy. But I’ve said my piece and I’ll shut up now…
Given Bill McKibben's enthusiastic comment on this site in regards to a potential Illuzzi for Governor campaign, I feel a new need to nip it in the butt (sorry Bill…).
Here's how I see an Illuzzi campaign playing out. The GOPers stay loyal, as they always do, except for a few in the northeast kingdom. Outside of Caledonia and Orleans Counties, the average voters in the state gets introduced to Illuzzi by news coverage and campaign ads that detail his run-ins with, and casual dismissing of, the law (and as a lawyer, no less – which'll make it worse). They are horrified.
Meanwhile, the Progs absolutely do not let the opportunity pass, as they would never back Illuzzi, and see this as a perfect example for them to prove once and for all that there's no difference between the two major parties. They run somebody – an 'A' lister – quite possibly Pollina himself, who from what I've heard, was an inch away from running for Governor last time. Lefties abandon the Dems in droves rather than back an anti-choice, anti-gay rights Republican with a history of defying legal orders.
Pollina does a bit better than he did against Shumlin. He comes in at about 28%. Douglas's 60% stays solid, as the moderate Dems and Indys that always break for him are afraid to go with Illuzzi because they don't trust him. Illuzzi comes in third in a three way race at 22% and Douglas wins again.
But how would a McKibben for Governor campaign make up the 20% Parker shortfall? Well to quote myself from below…
McKibben offsets about 5% of that 20% with new voters and new interest. He offsets another 5-10% by getting over the name-recognition gap that stymies challengers – especially when they start so late. A McKibben campaign – started early enough – would bring in scads of money that would provide enough resources to get him properly introduced to Vermonters – and the earned media coverage given his celebrity would be far more advantageous than with Racine, Clavelle or Parker. Lefty enthusiasm drives up turnout, which buys you another 2 or 3 points.
Of the remaining 2-7%, you look at persuasion – and Douglas has opened a wide vulnerability on the energy front, on policy (the Dem proposals are money savers for taxpayers and small business) and on character, as an unabashed flip flopper speaking out of both sides of his mouth.
Most of those “moderate” voters are often not so much genuinely politically moderate, as they are politically indifferent. And as such, they vote on character by default – or what they perceive as character. And the flip-flopper narrative is an absolute character-voter-no-no. I believe that can buy you another 5% or more.
Finally, there's the small minority of genuinely intellectual moderates. Many of those voters who see themselves as pragmatic are being swayed by global warming and energy issues, and would rather vote for an intellectual, international leader on the issue than someone who is looking more and more like a global warming denier wrapped in a political opportunist. Their support buys you another 2-3%
See? No problem Bill. We’ve gotcha covered. Jump on in, the water’s fine! Go and check out the draft Bill petition for a little encouragement!