Governor Douglas's dictate that the duly elected Windsor State's Attorney be condemned and ignored in the interest of political grandstanding is creating some attention from legislators in the area - most notably from Senator John Campbell, who is considering challenging the Governor in '08.
If you missed the story, Jack discusses it here last week. This is how it was reported by Ross Sneyd at VPR:
Martha Davis was accused of cultivating marijuana. Game wardens say they seized 2½ pounds of pot and found 32 plants.
But the Windsor County state's attorney, Robert Sand, decided not to pursue a felony case. Instead, he referred Davis to court diversion.
So, Davis will have to go through substance abuse counseling, pay some fees and possibly perform community service.
Once those requirements are fulfilled, Davis will be free of the criminal justice system - and will have no criminal record.
First off, this is all legal. Nobody with a firm grip on reality is arguing that Sand overstepped his statutory authority, merely that they don't approve of his decision. A brave and common sensical one, frankly. But the implications of Douglas directing the State Police to bypass Sand and refer drug cases directly to the state Attorney General is an extraordinary example of executive meddling in the judicial process to score political points.
Once again, It's Douglas playing by the Bush playbook, this time concerning seperation of powers.
Okay, okay... sheesh, I figured everybody'd be all over this poll. Guess it's up to me (for the record, over the last 24 hours, I have finished this post twice only to have the app crash on me and lose all my work... ARRRRG!!)
42 percent said they'd vote to re-elect Jim Douglas.
33 percent said they'd replace him.
25 percent said they were not sure.
Roper & company are trying to be blase about it, but this is a dramatic sea change. At this point in the last two cycles, Douglas's re-elect numbers were in the 60's. What's more ominous for the GOP is the significance of that number, which they no doubt recognize: 42%. It's roughly the mean, historical, hardcore GOP voting block that their statewides can depend on cycle after cycle. That's what he's down to, in terms of firm support.
16% percent of Vermonters say Governor Douglas is doing an excellent job. 38% a good job, with only 5% of people not sure how he's doing.
But when you put these numbers together, you've got a clear picture; the "nice guy" Douglas image is still intact, but moderates and independents are no longer confident that he's the right man for the job. It's probably not helping him that he's been using his so-called "listening tour" to TELL voters (through the media) what's important to them, rather than - y'know - listening. That only widens the perception that he's out-of-touch.
And if you think they're not scared, consider this: The original title of the WCAX web piece on the poll was "Questionable fourth term for Douglas." If you'll notice, it now reads "2008 Governor's Race Starts To Shape Up". The station reportedly responded to a reader's question about the change, saying they had received "internal and external complaints" about the original headline.
Now come on. Do you think if you or I had complaints about the message sent by a news headline that the Douglas communication offi- er, I mean WCAX - would give us the time of day? No freaking way. That was political damage control, pure and simple.
He's at it again.. I mean, seriously, why does he even live here? I was reading in the Tmes Argus today the latest about Whinin' Jim - "High taxes, a big peeve, says Douglas" It's about his recent taxpayer-funded campaign "Set the Agenda" tour, in which he travelled around the state listening to 'ordinary Vermonters" about what was on their minds, and you guessed it, the constant scourge of the GOP - taxes, was at the top of the list, according to Whinin' Jim. It's more of what we've been hearing constantly from him as of late - variations on a theme, "How Lousy it is to Live in Vermont" or something. And Jim had some other things to say as well. Jump below the fold for the goods.
So a week or two back, the playing field for Democratic gubernatorial candidates seemed to only contain a crowd of folks pleading former Lite Guv candidate Matt Dunne to run for the top job, rather than go for round 2 against the Dubester (and please, folks... he is so NOT getting that FAA job. We're stuck with him.) Then, the Pollina for Governor crowd hit the Dem scene and media hard, making their case for Pollina to be the Democratic candidate, running as a P-D (it should be noted that Pollina has yet to make this appeal in person, and I'm still dubious as to whether he would ever accept a D by his name).
Today, via Louis Porter, we have two new names; author, foreign policy expert, former Ambassador, and former Democratic State Chair (1977-1979) Peter Galbraith, currently being discussed in Greenvtster's diary below, and Windsor County Senate powerhouse John Campbell.
So - whereas a couple weeks ago, we were looking at a barren wasteland, into which no one could blame Dunne for not wanting to venture, it's now morphed into what will be in effect - if likely not in actuality - a political primary among an array of candidates appealing not only to a broad ideological spectrum, but an institutional one as well. There's the third party firebrand, flirting with the idea of reaching out his hand to those he has made a career of scorning, an economic moderate/social liberal with strong connections across the political spectrum, and an in-state political outsider with international credentials and a reputation as a serious intellectual with a considerable pedigree.
On paper, you've got to give initial polling advantage to Pollina, but Pollina would be unlikely to be able to redefine himself quickly enough to close the deal. Campbell obviously has more electoral deal-closing potential, but the business interests that Campbell has made inroads with are going to be surprisingly unwilling to ditch their buddy Douglas, even with a Dem they find more palatable. The underdog has to be Galbraith, but the notion of a political outsider and intellectual running the state is definitely appealing in theory (and I do think someone with zero name recognition could beat Douglas... the problem is that he or she would have to start on a serious ground game last May...)
So it's back on (especially when you consider that Dunne may still wanna go for it, although I'm betting not). Conventional wisdom says a crowded field is a bad thing, and I suppose the ideal would've been to have a consensus candidate back in the Summer. But given the perception of weakness the lack of a candidate has created, and the negative impact that would clearly have had going into the next legislative session, I'll take a crowded field any day. In fact, some sort of horse race may well be the only way to get the media to sit up and take notice of electoral opposition to the Governor. Lord knows, after the last couple times around, little else has seemed to do the trick.
Here, once again, is Douglas outside of Vermont, in an interview this month in Health Affairs (major hat tip to Nancy Remsen for this) basking in the accolades and credit for the Catamount Health Plan he fought tooth and nail:
Catamount Health is a premium subsidy program that allows the uninsured to purchase affordable coverage through their employer or directly through Catamount. These reforms are a key part of my strategy to make Vermont a more affordable place to live, work and raise a family. The reforms are part of my Affordability Agenda .
And here he is not even two weeks ago (ht VDP) in Milton on the same Catamount Health Plan (after saying last week in the Barton Chronicle he would've vetoed it... not sure what was stopping him at the time...):
“It’s not working,” he said. “It’s not an effective plan.”
Neither the GOP nor the Democratic faithful can be doing backflips these days. Tonight is the night of the big Democratic Party Autumn harvest fundraiser at the Old Labor Hall in Barre, where many were hoping to see some sort of great unveiling of a candidate to run against incumbent Governor Jim Douglas. Could still happen, I suppose, but nobody's holding their breath.
In fact what some from the liberal wing of the Party are doing is turning their frustration towards organizing, with reports of progressive Dems quietly having conversations about drafting a candidate themselves, rather than continue feeling humiliated by the lack of one. There are also murmurs of a floor challenge to Chair Ian Carleton during reorganization if no candidate has emerged by then. Tough stuff, but it's clear a lot of folks are choosing activism as an alternative to despair.
But on the other hand, how rough must it be to be a Vermont Republican these days? Sure, Douglas has got the Dem field cowering - but he is an electoral juggernaut who has trounced his last two opponents and has held elective statewide office since time immemorial. Peter Welch, on the other hand, is but a lowly freshman US Representative who has only been on one statewide ballot successfully...
Remember the "Douglas clause" Bernie put into his bill that would clamp down on problem nuclear plants like the one in Vernon, held together with duct tape by Jim Douglas's buddies (and campaign contributors) Entergy? You know - the clause that didn't simply empower the governor of a state containing such a scary plant from calling for safety inspections, but also would empower governors of neighboring states to do the same? Well, never let it be said that concerns over consistency prevent Jim Douglas from helping a corporate contributor.
(Douglas) "I think it's a precedent that we need to be very wary of,to empower adjoining states to be able to have a role in the regulatory proceedings in one state."
(...and on another familiar matter involving regulatory proceedings on power generation with cross-state implications)Flop:
Vermont’s leaders agree that International Paper should be required to install state of the art pollution control technology if it is going to burn tires for fuel at its Ticonderoga facility. Currently, the Ticonderoga paper mill does not have industry standard pollution control devices in place. “We are prepared to exhaust all available options to prevent this tire burn without appropriate safeguards in place,” Douglas added.
As part of the foundation for this administration’s clean air action plan, Douglas has urged the Vermont Attorney General to join other states in this appeal and he has offered his continued support to this effort.
“It is my hope that through unified action we will be successful in compelling these (coal burning power plants in mid-west states) to stop polluting our air,” Douglas said.
Yup. Call it "political relativism."
Of course, I'm not sure what any of it matters if the Democratic Party can't even run a candidate against him. Hey! Maybe that means he can get the Democratic Party nomination as a write in, too! Just like we let him do for Treasurer one year, as I recall!
Oh how my heart beams with pride. (PS - ht to wdh3, and major ht to John Dillon for great reporting)
Senator Sanders' pushback on the non-oversight exercized by the Bush Nuclear Regulatory Commision continues, with Vermont Yankee (and the dramatic collapse of its cooling tower) as Exhibit A. Bernie presented the now-famous photos of the collapse to today's oversight hearing of the Subcommittee on Clean Air, Climate Change and Nuclear Energy, and in the process prodding NRC Chair Dale Klein to concede that Vermonters may be feeling a little less than warm and fuzzy under the commission's less-than-watchful eye.
Sanders is pushing legislation that would make safety reviews more frequent, and that would empower state officials to instigate them - for example, in a bullet aimed squarely at VY, a safety inspection would be triggered by a plant looking for permission to generate more power than it was originally designed to produce.
But Bernie knows the executive regime we're stuck with in Vermont, and as such, he's cast his proposed net a bit wider. From a Sanders office press release (thanks Will), emphasis added:
Under Sanders’ legislation, power plant operators seeking to extend licenses would be subject to special inspections at the request of the governor of a state where a plant is located, or by the governor of a neighboring state affected by a plant's operation.
Wow, this guy is feeling secure enough in his elected position to let it all hang out, apparently. From Sneyd at VPR (emphasis mine):
(Beth Robinson) "When this (same-sex marriage) bill first came into the Legislature back in the spring the governor said he didn't really like the prospect of raising a divisive issue in the state. And it turns out that the governor is taking the lead in making this a divisive issue. And I'm disappointed in that."
(Sneyd) Douglas won't address the criticism directly. All he'll say is it's coming from someone who probably isn't going to contribute money to his re-election.
That clunk you just heard was the sound of my jaw hitting the Langdon Street Cafe keyboard. Now that's honesty. A clear statement that, in Douglas's eyes - the value of your opinion is based on whether or not you'll pay him to take you seriously.
And here's some more honesty: after that comment, I actually feel for the first time that we might take this guy down next year after all.
This should come as no surprise, but the Governor wasted no time using the desire of many Vermonters for equal rights under the law (and the modest step of having a commission travel the state and take public feedback) to fire up a little resentment and cash. From a fundraising letter a few weeks back:
Again, its hardly a shocker, but it may prove more dangerous than he thinks, given that early signs suggest that Vermonters are more tolerant of the prospect than many suspected. Rather than grabbing the everyman position, Douglas could find himself looking like the candidate of the religious right if he gets too enthusiastic on this - which would have the added effect of bridging the gap for many swing voters between him and the national Republicans. (To see the whole letter, click here)
Douglas was practically sputtering with hackneyed, anti-Democrat talking points on VPR last night at the news that - after urging from the left going all the way back to the Brigham decision - Gaye Symington and other leading Democrats were actually considering an income tax to fund education. The words that cause the sputtering? Symington (from VPR - emphasis added):
"I think when you're looking at a proposal that eliminates the statewide property tax and with it the confusion of the CLA and has the potential to more clearly connect what Vermonters pay in school taxes to what they spend per pupil, I think there's a lot to be gained by making this change."
Republicans sounded apoplectic, but all Douglas had to fall back on was an insulting generalized, anti-Dem attack:
"I don't think anyone believes that the architects of Act 60 are going to simply transfer liability from one tax to another.
And Rep. Joyce Errecart (R-Shelburne) went for the other canard: fear -
I think it would be just devastating to Vermont's economy
It's GOP orthodoxy to oppose income-based taxes, even though it represents a common sense approach to most people. Republicans believe they stifle economic growth more than other taxes, such as property taxes, sales taxes, etc. The truth is, of course, its clearly easier to make an income tax progressive and based on the ability to pay - which makes it more difficult for Republicans to eke out rhetorical advantage in debates and protect their upper income constituency.
The conversation is an important one to have, though, not just as a matter of good policy, but for the positioning it provides for the 2008 elections - as well as the long-term psychology of Democratic lawmakers (more on all this below the fold)...
Following the lead of Washington state, Vermont will develop a high-security license with radio frequency ID chips and other security features that can be scanned at the border. The license will cost more than a standard driver's license, but will be considerably cheaper than a passport, according to Douglas spokesman Jason Gibbs.
Vermont plans to develop an enhanced driver's license for residents who volunteer to use it. The enhanced driver's license will be slightly more expensive than a standard Vermont state driver's license and will require proof of citizenship, identity, and residence, according to DHS. It will also contain security features similar to a U.S. passport, which uses RFID.
This looks very benign on the surface, but let's talk about this for a second, because RFID is something that may or may not be familiar to y'all. RFID is, as the article notes, "Radio Frequency" identification.
(I unexpectedly ended up back on Martha's Vineyard this weekend, but I had a chance to get in a quick diary...)
Even casual readers have probably gathered that the Gubernatorial race is stressing me out. The old election calendar in Vermont, which says you can kick it around the first part of the election year and not come out as a candidate until April or May, is a ticket to utter and complete failure for so many reasons. At the top of that list is that, to be taken seriously by the Press Corps who loooooove Jim Douglas, you have to come into the traditional election period already with a big head of steam (read: money, enthusiasm, poll numbers and momentum) which requires an early start (like, NOW) to a serious ground game. But the lack of a candidate has created a vacuum. Shumlin and others have tried to fill the vacuum with Republican Senator Vince Illuzzi. Given that the A-listers on the political bench refuse to consider taking on Douglas, I've been trying to fill the vacuum from completely off the bench with our international superstar, Bill McKibben.
But the other option is to look deeper onto the bench, which could open up more potential names (none of them well known across the state, but that doesn't seem to be an option, frankly. Whoever goes for is going to have to make themselves known to the state before the traditional beginning of the campaign season - next summer - to have a chance). Among those names are Democratic women, who many feel would be a more ideal foil to Jim Douglas's condescending campaign stylings.
Click after the fold for some possible female candidates from deeper on the Dem bench. Feel free to add your own thoughts or candidates in the discussion, and take a minute to fill out the poll of who you think might be a viable candidate...
UPDATE: Okay, there's been a promise extracted from me to stop beating up on Illuzzi in regards to a Governor run. Again, I give the guy lots of props for some of his stances, but I think folks were detecting that I was really beating up on those that promote the idea of a run by proxy. But I've said my piece and I'll shut up now...
Given Bill McKibben's enthusiastic comment on this site in regards to a potential Illuzzi for Governor campaign, I feel a new need to nip it in the butt (sorry Bill...).
Here's how I see an Illuzzi campaign playing out. The GOPers stay loyal, as they always do, except for a few in the northeast kingdom. Outside of Caledonia and Orleans Counties, the average voters in the state gets introduced to Illuzzi by news coverage and campaign ads that detail his run-ins with, and casual dismissing of, the law (and as a lawyer, no less - which'll make it worse). They are horrified.
Meanwhile, the Progs absolutely do not let the opportunity pass, as they would never back Illuzzi, and see this as a perfect example for them to prove once and for all that there's no difference between the two major parties. They run somebody - an 'A' lister - quite possibly Pollina himself, who from what I've heard, was an inch away from running for Governor last time. Lefties abandon the Dems in droves rather than back an anti-choice, anti-gay rights Republican with a history of defying legal orders.
Pollina does a bit better than he did against Shumlin. He comes in at about 28%. Douglas's 60% stays solid, as the moderate Dems and Indys that always break for him are afraid to go with Illuzzi because they don't trust him. Illuzzi comes in third in a three way race at 22% and Douglas wins again.
McKibben offsets about 5% of that 20% with new voters and new interest. He offsets another 5-10% by getting over the name-recognition gap that stymies challengers - especially when they start so late. A McKibben campaign - started early enough - would bring in scads of money that would provide enough resources to get him properly introduced to Vermonters - and the earned media coverage given his celebrity would be far more advantageous than with Racine, Clavelle or Parker. Lefty enthusiasm drives up turnout, which buys you another 2 or 3 points.
Of the remaining 2-7%, you look at persuasion - and Douglas has opened a wide vulnerability on the energy front, on policy (the Dem proposals are money savers for taxpayers and small business) and on character, as an unabashed flip flopper speaking out of both sides of his mouth.
Most of those "moderate" voters are often not so much genuinely politically moderate, as they are politically indifferent. And as such, they vote on character by default - or what they perceive as character. And the flip-flopper narrative is an absolute character-voter-no-no. I believe that can buy you another 5% or more.
Finally, there's the small minority of genuinely intellectual moderates. Many of those voters who see themselves as pragmatic are being swayed by global warming and energy issues, and would rather vote for an intellectual, international leader on the issue than someone who is looking more and more like a global warming denier wrapped in a political opportunist. Their support buys you another 2-3%
See? No problem Bill. We've gotcha covered. Jump on in, the water's fine! Go and check out the draft Bill petition for a little encouragement!
(It bears repeating that a diary like this does not necessarily express the opinions of any front pagers but me...)
If you hadn't noticed, I'm frustrated. Frustrated at the fact that a clear, viable candidate isn't stepping forward to challenge Jim Douglas. Frustrated that an anti-choice, anti-gay rights, scandal-plagued Republican is getting promoted for the post by our Senate President Pro-Tem. Frustrated because too many people are pretending that a credible campaign can still be run in this state by deciding to jump in sometime next May.
So my wild and crazy solution? Drag internationally known author, activist, and Middlebury College Professor Bill McKibben into the fray (yes, possibly running as an Independent), even though I'm sure he'd rather spend the winter cross-country skiing.
The fact is that, of the rumored candidates, Sorrell is probably just messing with people's heads (either that or he thinks you can play by the old calendar), and Dunne needs to beat Dubie first.
But consider what a Bill McKibben campaign would look like.
"Man," I cried, "how ignorant art thou in thy pride of wisdom!" - from Frankenstein by Mary Shelley
Translation: the most dangerous thing in the world is being a smart guy who isn't actually as smart as he thinks he is.
Why? Hey, this is Frankenstein we're talking about - because you might end up creating monsters that come back to haunt you later. Today's example? This quote from the Burlington Free Press:
Kurt Wright is the man on the spot. He is the Republican City Council president of one of the most un-Republican cities in the country.
It's old news, but in light of recent conversations about backing anti-choice, anti-gay rights Republican Senators as de facto Dem candidates, it bears repeating. Rep. Kurt Wright is playing savvy politics in positioning himself as a real threat - not simply in the Burlington mayor's race, but for statewide office through his position as leader of the Burlington City Council. For those of you who don't remember, the reason he has that position is that a Democrat put him there, rather than see a Progressive get the position. This is what's known as cutting off one's nose to spite one's face - or possibly shooting off one's face to spite one's head.
Wright is well on the way to becoming the latest Frankencrat Monster. Also on the list is General Michael Dubie, brother of the other Dubie, who was promoted to the position of Adjutant General by the Democratic legislature, and wasted no time in speaking out against progressive legislative priorities vis-a-vis the VT National Guard and Iraq.
Think I'm being alarmist? When we don't challenge these guys and instead enable them or give them free passes, they come back bigger and better, even when we thought we were being clever when we did it in the first place. In 2000, the Democrats did not field a candidate for State Treasurer, allowing the Republican incumbent to walk in with a gazillion percent of the vote and build up a phony bipartisan feelgood narrative that made him into an electoral juggernaut.
If you're new to the state, the Treasurer's name was Jim Douglas.
(NOTE: If you've noticed diaries appearing and disappearing, it's because I'm seriously bungling the "draft" vs. "live" diary feature today... woops...)
Governor Douglas's administration has stated that they believe most of the now-defeated (by his hand) H.520 (the "global warming" bill) can be implemented through the executive branch - even the efficiency utility piece that was so controversial. Well lo and behold, the Public Service Board has reported back that, no, they have no such authority and would require legislative action (duh) to proceed. What's absolutely jaw-dropping is the statement from Commissioner of Public Service David O'Brien:
The administration was never against evaluating in broad terms how best to improve the efficient use of heating fuels by Vermonters, O'Brien said. Instead, his and Douglas' concern about the energy bill was the speed with which an entirely new program was being implemented, he said.
"We were hesitant and cautious … most of our real concern was how fast this was moving along," O'Brien said.
Oh - THAT was the problem? That's the story now? Puh-leeze!
People are starting to go gonzo over Senator Shumlin's. - er... "odd" - notion that Republican Senator Vince Illuzzi is the man that Democrats should support as an independent challenger to Jim Douglas. And the damndest people seem to be picking up on the idea. Allow me to do my part with a bucket of cold water.
First of all - full props to Illuzzi for many of his stances. He often votes in seriously un-Republican ways on environmental matters and on bread-and-butter Dem issues such as the minumum wage. He also broke ranks and supported Peter Welch for Congress (although he supported Ruth Dwyer for Governor). This isn't a guy who's going to win any popularity contests among the GOP faithful.
But all of this smacks of desperation - especially at this point in the process. People want so badly to retire Jim Douglas that many are falling into the trap of trying to think "strategically" about who some self-identifying Republicans would allow themselves to vote for. I would remind folks that we suck at that, and we do much better when we put forward clear, ideologically consistent candidates that do not appear to be doing too much triangulation (and as you'll see below the fold, Illuzzi is quite a triangulator). I firmly believe that the fault of Racine, Clavelle and Parker were in their campaigns, rather than their qualities (although the Prog label might have doomed Clavelle with a wide swath of the electorate from the beginning).
In any event, it behooves us to look clearly at who we'd be voting for if we backed a GOP maverick in lieu of a Dem in the election. If you're concerned about civil rights, campaign finance laws and abortion rights (for starters)... you might want to take a look below the fold...
Many people I've talked to feel that the recently passed veto session was, for all intents and purposes, the real start of the 2008 Governor's race. Sure we don't have a candidate yet - and, well... that's a problem, no doubt - but it feels for all the world like the race is on nonetheless, and we can at least be laying the groundwork for a successful run by...well, by somebody.
And a little encouragement might get a wavering candidate in. A usual Vermont short election calendar serves incumbents - especially the incumbent Governor - so why wait?
It's time we all did what so many in the rest of the country have done (and what kestrel9000 is doing in Virginia, until such time as he finally gets a job up here that allows him to move back to Vermont where he belongs) - that is, make our OWN media. Blogs, sure. If you're at all inclined, you oughta have one, but what I'm really talking about is A/V! Time to get out the cameras and/or microphones and start following Republicans to public meetings and events. Ask the tough questions, get them on record and put it out on the intertubes as a permanent record. Ask them how they voted on the global warming bill, death with dignity, campaign finance. Ask how they feel about gay marriage, IRV, the RNC hiding from a subpoena behind "executive privilege." Ask them in front of GOP crowds. Get a hold of a video editor and add your own music and effects, or just post it raw. Nobody's gonna do this for us, folks, so lets start to kick it up a notch.
To that end, GMD will have a contest: make your own internet ad that tells voters why its time to stop voting for Jim Douglas and submit a link in a user diary, or just via email to me (check my profile). We'll get them all posted and let people vote on their favoritte. It could be video, or just straight audio, if you're more into the radio thing.
Now, I have no illusions about the relatively small pool of readers of this site. None of us on the front page are expecting hundreds of entries. So we'll allow plenty of time for the contest. Get your entry in by the first of November, and we can announce the winner exactly one year before election day. That's three whole months, folks. Plenty of time to get creative! We'll post updates and reminders from time to time, and I'll add a link to this diary at the top of the page so new readers can be brought up to speed.
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