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Racine running for Governor in 2010, according to ally

by: odum

Sun Jan 04, 2009 at 23:33:10 PM EST


It looks like whatever illness kept all the potential Dem candidates for Governor and Lt. Governor hiding for so long in the '08 cycle has been fought off. This email is making the rounds of Democratic County Chairs in the state:

Dear County Chairs,

As Doug Racine starts his campaign for governor, he would first like to get around and visit all the county committees and the rank and file Democrats. I told Doug I would help him set up some of these appointments.

Please let me know when your next county committee meeting is. Doug would like to come and visit and engage in a conversation on issues and on the 2010 governor's race.

Thanks.

-mary sullivan

Racine, of course, is the only candidate who has ever given Douglas a run for his money in a gubernatorial contest - losing by a mere 2.5 percent (and that was with a strong third candidate in Con Hogan pulling 9.7%, as well as an unsanctioned Progressive - Michael Badamo - who pulled 0.6%). Douglas is clearly stronger now, but so is Racine after his own political rebirth. The former Lieutenant Governor pulls terrific numbers in the more conservative Chittenden County burbs that always end up kicking our statewide candidates' asses against Douglas and Dubie - stronger numbers than he even had in the old days.

And having Mary Sullivan on his side sure doesn't hurt. There are factions and divisions within the Democratic Party in Vermont, but Sullivan's long history with the institution and its players at every level make her not simply a "faction-straddler," but likely the faction-straddler. In the Democratic Party, everybody likes Mary, and that likely makes her unique in the VDP (scratch that - I'm hearing email complaints about her after writing that. Ah, Democrats..).

One can make the case that Markowitz, Spaulding, Shumlin or Dunne (and others) could defeat Douglas, but in each of those cases, there is an element of faith built into the case. Racine remains the only potential candidate for whom the case can be made with math. That's not to say its a perfectly linear equation, but the numbers are there historically to make the case for a Racine candidacy, as I made in more detail a year ago.

And as a numbers guy myself, that gets me feeling pretty good. More analysis on this tomorrow.

odum :: Racine running for Governor in 2010, according to ally
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What ailed them? (0.00 / 0)
The illness that kept so many from running in '08 maybe has been cured by passing through a traumatic process . A process similar to what Wall Streeters call capitulation,the final throwing in of the towel.The statewide Dems reached the capitulation point with he loss to Douglas/Dubie in November and can now start to "buy" back in to the market at lower costs and risks .
Glad to see some Democrats buying back in,at last.


Put Simply (0.00 / 0)
Two years, too late. toodle loo!

I really wish... (0.00 / 0)
...he would have done it this time around, but better late than never.

If he's already entering the race, maybe he should start pushing the Douglas administration now on issues that are important to the state's future.

Musician, Web Designer, Photographer


Right with you, Julie (0.00 / 0)
In an email about this, I voiced similar opinions (if he's running, why isn't Sen. Racine out there now confronting the "cut everything for the poor, disabled and elderly" program of the Gov. and his henchman?) and was told my "questions are too critical too soon."

In my book, it's never too soon to show actual leadership on issues.

Let's also hope what's being proposed isn't some "listening tour," an ineffective, trite and, one hopes, fading tactic that communicates only that the candidate doesn't know what he or she believes or is willing to stand up for.

NanuqFC
In a Time of Universal Deceit, TELLING the TRUTH Is a Revolutionary Act. - George Orwell


[ Parent ]
"too critical too soon" (4.00 / 2)
Yeah, that was me.

It's the first day back from the holiday's for pity's sake. The Legislature opens tomorrow and Racine is a sitting Senator. The last election is barely 2 months past. It seems ridiculous to pile on him for not engaging in stump speeches. Like we're just looking for excuses to criticize. These people aren't machines, after all, and looking at an unprecedented early announcement from somebody with a real shot by leading with grumbling under these conditions goes well beyond a "half empty" approach.

Shay pinned him down and got some of the most basic of reasons why he sees himself as a better fit. But come on - this is a time to be encouraging. Do we really want to greet such a positive development by playing Democratic whack-a-mole?

Nullius perfectus est


[ Parent ]
I think we're having two different conversations here. (0.00 / 0)
Just to be clear: I'm being a little critical of Racine for not having run in 2008.  But I'm also done with that and there's nothing to do about it now.

So yeah, 2010-- I think Racine will be a strong candidate and I'd love to see him take this thing.  

I'm not interested in jumping all over him-- I think he'll make a great candidate.

Musician, Web Designer, Photographer


[ Parent ]
Other possibilities... (0.00 / 0)
I wouldn't rule out the retirement of Jim Douglas at the end of this term. If that were to happen, I suspect Brian Dubie would run and win a Republican primary based on name recognition and what I'd term the "aw shucks" factor. It's also a built in advantage for the Lt. Gov. that he is related to every 12th person in this state. Without an incumbent, the Democrats would likely field no less than 5 candidates in a phrenetic and potentially divisive primary. Vermont's perennial candidate, "Lyndon LaRouche wanna-be" Anthony Pollina might try again, but I would bet that the Progressive's nominate a candidate like David Zuckerman or another person not named "Anthony Pollina" to advance their banner. Toss in a number of Grass Roots/Marijuana Legal/Libertarian types and I'd predict that there would be a very full field with no less than 11 candidates from different parties vying for the top spot. That's how many candidates there were in the last gubernatorial contest without an incumbent. As it was in 2002, it would be exciting political football.

Or, if Jim Douglas decides to run again he'll win again. Vermonters don't often kick out incumbent Governors. The last time this happened the results of the election were so close that the election led to a legislative recount. In 1962, 47 years and 7 Governors ago, Philip Hoff won against the incumbent F. Ray Keyser, Jr. in a two man race. It's not likely we'll ever see a race with only two candidates again.  


Info on Douglas (0.00 / 0)
Living in Essex Junction, it's not that hard to know people close to/within the Dubie family.  When talking about Wednesday's inauguration, they said that this would be Dubie's last, and didn't go any further.

He REALLY wanted a run at Bernie in 2006, but in 2010, his kids will be out of school. I'd assume that was a decent part of his decision to stay out, and with that barricade removed, it'd be easy for him to throw his hat in.

I just don't know how much interest Dubie would really have in being Governor.  With Douglas, he'd been around state politics forever, had held a handful of offices, and seemed genuinely interested in running the state.  Dubie took office holding no political experience, and since taking the job, has seemed most interested in either photo opportunities, or events out of Vermont, like his Cuba chronicles.  The focus for him certainly hasn't been helping out every day Vermonters, and I'd imagine he'd rather put himself on the national stage.

keepereusc@gmail.com


[ Parent ]
Sorry for the double-post folks, hopefully it can be deleated. (0.00 / 0)


keepereusc@gmail.com

[ Parent ]
- (0.00 / 0)
I can't track down the quote, but I swear I've read that Douglas said, early in his first or second term, that he intended to serve four terms (it came up in the context of the 4 year term discussion, and he said that he would be comfortable serving what he preferred to view as two four year terms, but with four elections).

I bet the Dems who didn't run this time are just waiting to crawl out of the woodwork for 2010 and a shot at the low-hanging fruit (Dubie).

I like Racine alright, but I really would like to see Dunne in this one. I think he's got everything necessary to be one of those "great" governors.  


- (0.00 / 0)
Oh, and please god save us from a Shumlin candidacy, or worse, a Shumlin administration.

Perhaps he could run as a Rep though. They'd probably be interested in someone who wants to cut social and medical services, pass the burden of education funding reform on to the towns while claiming all the credit, and publicly suggest that the democratic party endorse republicans.


[ Parent ]
Unscratched from this perspective (0.00 / 0)
And having Mary Sullivan on his side sure doesn't hurt. There are factions and divisions within the Democratic Party in Vermont, but Sullivan's long history with the institution and its players at every level make her not simply a "faction-straddler," but likely the faction-straddler. In the Democratic Party, everybody likes Mary, and that likely makes her unique in the VDP (scratch that - I'm hearing email complaints about her after writing that. Ah, Democrats..).  


For the record, I LOVE Mary.
(Democrats indeed!)

I also like to think GMD tipped the balance for her at the Democratic Convention, too.

sláinte,
cl

-- Religion is like sodomy: both can be harmless when practiced between consenting adults but neither should be imposed upon children.


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