Okay, so it may not officially start until this upcoming week, but in many ways that matter, the '07 Legislative session has been underway for a while now. It doesn't take a genius to see that in recent legislative cycles, the more a Party holds control of the public debate, the more they control the actual agenda. In '05 after a lot of good work by the Dems on health care, Governor Douglas stepped into the limelight and took complete control of the discussion before lawmakers had even left the Statehouse to return to their districts. That control was certainly on display in the final product, as well as in the accolades from the likes of the AARP.
The Republicans (naturally) are the only Party who seems to be tackling this in an organized, head-on way. Despite the fact that both the Ds and the Rs are in transition - moving into a new legislature as well as new Party leadership - you wouldn't guess it on the R's part from the recent papers. Message testing and propogating is very much in play, seemingly already pushing the GOP framing of property taxes and a new twist on civil confinement into the media forefront. Take a look at this AP piece on the upcoming agenda which leads on property tax:
(House Minority Leader Steve) Adams and his colleagues called for creation of a special House committee dedicated to property tax reform, much as Symington created for health care when she was elected speaker two years ago.
But she has rejected that approach, arguing that a much broader debate has to take place about why education costs what it does as well as about how it's funded.
Not only is the issue front and center on the GOP's terms, but Symington is already being placed on the defensive.
This isn't a good early sign for House Democrats. Adams (unlike his predecessor) will likely be interested in getting something passed as opposed to simply playing partisan contrarian, which in the big picture bodes well for the chances of actual legislation emerging from the House. Nevertheless, that doesn't alter the fact that - once again - House Dems are starting in the hole against a GOP noise machine that is clearly working in unison with the Governor (of course, Adams may also find himself in an awkward position if, as reported by PoliticsVT, recently defeated Senator Wendy Wilton successfully takes the reins of the GOP, as she would likely be interested in a slash-and-burn combative approach).
The Dems seem to have no such counter effort. What they do have is Peter Shumlin who was first out of the gate beating the drums on his legislative priority the day after his re-ascendence to Senate leadership. The issues related to global warming are just starting to become less of an abstraction to the average Vermonter, and depending on how he plays them (and how much support he gets from other Dems). he could find resonance. From conservation to hydro to wind, the topic could be expansive. There could even be an opportunity to enter the taxation debate if he broaches the matter of a potential offsetting revenue capture from a BTU or carbon tax. The topic is obviously near and dear to his base, and his vocal championing of the issue will help keep his base in line in the event of disappointments on other issues (such as health care). Translating it to an "everyman" appeal will have to be finessed. The issue does create opportunities for stark lines of distinction between the Democrats and the Republicans going into the '08 elections, though, so expect to see Shumlin stay on it relentlessly.
If this early jockeying for position is any indication, Shumlin will be likely to frequently eclipse Symington as the voice of the Democrats in Montpelier and be a greater force in driving the agenda. Even in today's Allen-Porter piece, which (for a change) puts the D's front-and-center on the agenda list, Symington again seems on the defensive - this time from the aggressive rhetoric of Shumlin rather than the GOP:
Symington doesn't mind (Shumlin's) emphasis on the topic (climate change) early in the session. But she has cautioned that the General Assembly has concrete issues to grapple with, particularly as the state's education tab approaches $1.2 billion and the taxpayers' ability to sustain it grows more tenuous.
"What I would ask us to think about is what are we doing now to make this state all it can be for our children and grandchildren," Symington said last month to her fellow 92 Democrats in a report from The Associated Press. "That is the question that really needs to guide us."
That corrective, almost scolding tone that so often accompanies the Speaker's rhetoric does her no favors, as it always comes off as defensive - and being on the defensive is always seen as a sign of weakness. Hopefully Communications Pro Bill Lofy will be working with her on this sort of thing.
Whether the new Statehouse dynamic will push Symington, repotedly (by Dwinell) considering a gubernatorial run, closer to such a move is an interesting question. In either event, she would be well served to quickly find ways to be less reactive to the seemingly more media-savvy GOP and Shumlin and get her own agenda out front proactively. To do that, Symington will have to break from form as a political technician and find a little of that vision-thing. Besides health care, the only issue last session that seemed to evoke an impassioned response from the Speaker was the raising of the gas tax to close a budget hole. Hardly inspiring stuff (although it will get you headlines - just the wrong kind...)
250-1
55-1
