| This week kicks off a new (more or less) weekly feature. Our gubernatorial election mojometers will be a jumping off point for discussing the activities and momentum of the candidates for governor now that we're getting into a more heavily political season. Subjective, yeah obviously - but tell me I'm full of crap if that's what you think (as if I have to tell anyone to do that).
So the meters are just a week-to-week snapshot and will move around a lot. This first one is a bit inclusive of recent weeks - months, even - but is still focused on the now. And by all means, email me with your thoughts and impressions as the days go on. The meters are a bit small, but if you squint, you'll see that they run from red hot, to warm, to luke warm, neutral, chilly, cold and ice cold.
 Peter Shumlin. This is a good week in primary land for the Senate Leader. First of all the session has begun and where his Senatorial rivals for the nomination are in danger of being swallowed up by it to their campaign detriment Shumlin - by virtue of his office - will have an increased spotlight (and will not be likely to squander it the way Peter Welch did the year he defeated Martha Rainville). At the VASA Annual Meeting Shumlin further distinguished himself from the field before primary voters (none of whom were in that room, of course) by sticking to his guns before a hostile crowd while Racine and Bartlett wobbled (and Markowitz and Dunne just stayed away). Shumlin goes into the new week running hot before his primary audience.
 Deb Markowitz. Markowitz is still doing well with the fundraising and with the session beginning, her number one rival at the moment (Racine) could well find himself constrained from campaigning, giving her an opportunity to gain ground. On the other hand she's been a bit quiet of late after underwhelming some at last year's candidate forums and leaning a bit too heavily on the foregone conclusion of her Emily's List endorsement (and she was a no show at the VASA event which could add to concerns among primary voters about her chumminess with the right). Lukewarm only, then, rather than hot.
 Matt Dunne. For weeks, Dunne has reportedly been affectionately harassed by Democrats over his decision to run for Governor in a crowded field rather than Lieutenant Governor, but in light of some high profile earned media setting a unique, Google-driven narrative for his campaign, I'm hearing less of the head-scratching and more second looks from skeptics as he continues his largely internet-driven organizing. Dunne goes into neutral territory with upward mobility that could drive him into warmer climates at any moment (so long as he can get the staffing infrastructure to maintain it).
 Susan Bartlett. Senator Bartlett got some mojo going despite some odd early campaign decisions (Polling? In the Fall? With so little money on hand? Seriously?) with strong showings at campaign forums that made folks stand up and take notice. Unfortunately the last few days haven't been the best for her in the primary arena. The wobbly VASA performance wont play well in the base-driven primary election and as Chair of Appropriations, the new legislative session threatens to bottle up her campaign more than her fellow Senators, making this week's "chilly" status largely due to forces beyond her control. The Bartlett campaign is going to have to be creative over the coming months.
 Doug Racine. Rough time for the Racine campaign. Not only is he going to have to struggle to be noticed during the session (he's not in too bad a position to generate some buzz if he plays his cards right, but consider it a competitive disadvantage), but the session will claim his campaign point person - Representative Mark Larson of Burlington. And, yes, there was the wobbling at that VASA meeting but the bigger concern for Racine is the return of the most poisonous narrative to his primary prospects. This past fall, many were first taking notice of the candidates at various forums. Racine, however, spent much of this time on vacation. And while he did get an opportunity to show off some fine surrogates on his behalf, the vacation simply went on too long, and there has been little heard from him since his return. As a result, I've heard from more than one person the concerns about Racine's "fire in the belly" for the campaign based on bad memories of his 2002 run. This was a narrative that had been largely quieted through his truly impressive fundraising and media run in the first half of 2009, but the fact that he has allowed it to begin to resurface - combined with the other points against him (that are beyond his control) this week - put the good Senator into cold territory for the first week of the mojometers.
Brian Dubie. The Dubester has a couple big pluses going into the week. First it seems clear that Governor Douglas is going to be using his soapblox to help increase Dubie's profile. The Lite Guv has also been working aggressively behind the scenes with a parade of Facebook promotions YouTubes and emails. This is a good medium for Dubie as its one-way and the message can be tightly controlled. All told Dubie should be running in the warm zone...but... the concerned mumblings among much of the old Republican guard from the top to the bottom of the state continue unabated. The GOP insiders continue to be very very concerned about Dubie's ability to win at this level of battle. It's a concern that has already fueled public musings of potential primary challenger Skip Vallee and Republican-as-Independent Michael Bernhardt - and behind the scenes gossip now includes the name of Tom Evslin in the mix. It almost doesn't matter if that rumor is reality-based, as its just as worrisome for Dubie if its just a mass case of wishful GOP-insider thinking. If I had to bet money I'd still guess (as I've been saying for a while) that Dubie is going to be primaried. The question is who. All told, the persistent - and seemingly growing - disquiet among his ranks makes for chilly times. |
