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...And the Pink Eraser Award Goes To...

by: Sue Prent

Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 00:00:00 AM EST


What's this?  Art Woolf made a mistake?!  In Wednesday's Free Press, Candace Page reveals a slight miscalculation in the report filed at the end of 2009 by Douglas' pet economists, Art Woolf and Richard Heaps.
Instead of increasing $241., the inflation-adjusted median income of Vermont couples filing joint tax returns actually fell $1,870. or 2.7 percent in 2008.

According to Woolf, the discrepancy came to light when he was  

recently checking his calculations and discovered he had transposed two formulas.  

The article goes on to say that Woolf thinks the corrected data "makes more sense."  Duh!  Observed Mr. Heaps:
"Sometimes you just do something stupid."
 
Sue Prent :: ...And the Pink Eraser Award Goes To...
I will be the first to admit that any economic assertion by Art Woolf is likely to be received by me with skepticism; more especially because we are on opposite sides of an outstanding Act 250 appeal that involves, among other things, Walmart's impact on local economies.  Still, anyone might wonder on what fluffy cloud of disconnect Mr. Woolf reposed when he came up with the glaringly erroneous result and did not immediately question it.   Being a longtime member of UVM's economics faculty, surely Mr. Woolf knows that the first rule of math is to check your work!

I can't resist the urge to speculate on what year-end decisions within the Douglas administration might have been influenced by this timely and remarkable discrepancy.  

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I thought (4.00 / 1)
the more eggregious problem was their decision to define "families" as those who are married filing jointly; that is not the definition used by Census (households with those related by blood, marriage, or adoption)

by limiting it as they do every year, the numbers present a somewhat skewed perspective by excluding single parents (among others); and of course it completely excludes singles and households with unrelated people; the better measure is median household income

in any case, while I often (usually) disagree with Art & Dick, I'm sympathetic to the fact that it was an error (and reported when discovered); obviously, all of us number crunchers should double-check the math, but we're human and we make mistakes

hey, at least he didn't release any tritium by "mistake"


True, anyone can make a mistake; (0.00 / 0)
But I think it demonstrates quite a disconnect with reality to not question such a surprising outcome when one is charged with generating numbers in an official capacity.  These are, after all, figures that presumably affect decisions made within the power structure of Vermont.  

[ Parent ]
fair enough (0.00 / 0)
but the newsletter published by Art & Dick is not "official" in any sense; they are not paid by the administration or the legislature

actually, we don't get to know who pays them because the newsletter's subscribers are not disclosed; and of course, you can't just go online to get their newsletter; you have to pay for it

when I publish a report, the funders are listed for all to see


[ Parent ]
Sorry; I mispoke. (0.00 / 0)
They may not be "official" but they are certainly perceived to be the definitive indicators for the state.  I grant you that the greater error is in accepting them as definitive.  In that sense, I am guilty of falling into the assumption that they have been offered and accepted as definitive.

[ Parent ]

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