Okay, okay... sheesh, I figured everybody'd be all over this poll. Guess it's up to me (for the record, over the last 24 hours, I have finished this post twice only to have the app crash on me and lose all my work... ARRRRG!!)
42 percent said they'd vote to re-elect Jim Douglas.
33 percent said they'd replace him.
25 percent said they were not sure.
Roper & company are trying to be blase about it, but this is a dramatic sea change. At this point in the last two cycles, Douglas's re-elect numbers were in the 60's. What's more ominous for the GOP is the significance of that number, which they no doubt recognize: 42%. It's roughly the mean, historical, hardcore GOP voting block that their statewides can depend on cycle after cycle. That's what he's down to, in terms of firm support.
16% percent of Vermonters say Governor Douglas is doing an excellent job. 38% a good job, with only 5% of people not sure how he's doing.
But when you put these numbers together, you've got a clear picture; the "nice guy" Douglas image is still intact, but moderates and independents are no longer confident that he's the right man for the job. It's probably not helping him that he's been using his so-called "listening tour" to TELL voters (through the media) what's important to them, rather than - y'know - listening. That only widens the perception that he's out-of-touch.
And if you think they're not scared, consider this: The original title of the WCAX web piece on the poll was "Questionable fourth term for Douglas." If you'll notice, it now reads "2008 Governor's Race Starts To Shape Up". The station reportedly responded to a reader's question about the change, saying they had received "internal and external complaints" about the original headline.
Now come on. Do you think if you or I had complaints about the message sent by a news headline that the Douglas communication offi- er, I mean WCAX - would give us the time of day? No freaking way. That was political damage control, pure and simple.
Also of interest in the poll were the numbers for other potential contenders. The Dems who've made it clear they're not interested predictable polled in the crapper (and Campbell and Galbraith were not included). Among the two remaining names who actually are considered possible contenders:
Of the eight choices, Democrat Matt Dunne and Progressive Anthony Pollina were the only ones with more than 10 percent -- Dunne with 22 percent, Pollina with 12 percent.
Interesting.
The selling point of a Pollina candidacy from his supporters is largely that his name recognition and grassroots support start him off with the strongest base and make him the most credible alternative, but Dunne starts off at almost double his numbers.
Which means, once again, all eyes are going to be on Dunne. If he has been leaning away from a run for the top job, prefering for round 2 against Dubie, he's got to be reconsidering the question. And those pushing for a Dunne/Pollina ticket, might want to consider the reciprocal.
