One of Vermont’s cute little traditions made its annual appearance yesterday, as Senator Bill Doyle released the results of his annual Town Meeting Survey. And the Freeploid went nutzoid (behind a paywall), you should pardon the expression, with one of the survey questions. The headline:
Doyle poll shows popularity down for Shumlin, gas tax
And the first paragraph:
Gov. Peter Shumlin’s approval rating is down, and it might have something to do with how people feel about his proposed increase in the gas tax, which they decidedly do not like.
Oh noes! Shumlin’s in the dumpster! The gas tax is doing him in! Upheaval in Vermont politics!
Well, no.
Let’s start with the fact that Doyle’s survey, storied thought it may be, is completely unscientific. The questions are distributed at town meetings (and many other locations; there was a box of ’em in the State House lobby for several weeks), and participation is voluntary. The ‘Loid admits this, but then adds a nice little qualifier:
He can’t be sure somebody isn’t stuffing the ballot box, but often the results smell right and they have lots of people in Vermont political circles buzzing.
“Often the results smell right.” Smell right to whom? The reporters and politicos under the Golden Dome? Need I remind you that they don’t have a terribly good track record when it comes to the “smell” of politics?
Still to come: the biggest exaggeration in this article.
These renowned sniffers are the same ones who believed Vince Illuzzi was a shoo-in for Auditor because he was such a brilliant politician, known and loved by all. When, in fact, his fame basically resided in two low-population areas: the Northeast Kingdom and the State House. They also believed that Beth Pearce was in serious trouble because she had no political experience while her opponent, Wendy Wilton, had the deep pockets of Lenore Broughton behind her.
And I haven’t even gotten to the Big Lie in this story yet.
•42 percent say they think second-term Democrat Shumlin is doing a good job, down from 46 percent last year…
Wait wait wait. Shumlin’s approval is down by FOUR POINTS? Even if the Doyle Survey was a scientifically designed and conducted poll, four points would be within the margin of error. A four-point drop would have little or no significance even if it came from Gallup or Castleton. Four points in a Doyle survey is nothing.
And the “analysis” that Shumlin’s alleged “decline” is due to the gas tax proposal? Absolute sheer guesswork. By a Republican, no less.
I mean, Bill Doyle is a good guy and everybody loves him. But he is, after all, a member of the Loyal Opposition. Plus he has a vested interest in his Survey, which is his calling card in Vermont politics. And the “analysis” comes entirely from him:
Doyle suggested Shumlin’s drop in approval is a comedown from the good vibes for his response to the 2011 Tropical Storm Irene. Now, there is the reality of a higher proposed gas tax, Doyle noted.
Again, the “drop in approval” is statistically meaningless. And nobody else is quoted in the piece.
Freeploid FAIL.
Heh. Isn’t that their stock in trade?
I actually kind of like seeing the Doyle questionnaire survey and would probably miss it should it fail to appear out of the snow and mud some spring.
And lots of people- well two- I asked agree.So that’s what? Well probably about half, on average.
And well Because you know it is a quirky Vermont town meeting spring tradition and …red in the morning sailors take warning and rain before seven clear by eleven and spring brook trout will bite when the beech leaves are big as a squirrel’s ear
And everyone knows: once the peepers and pundits are buzzing if the governor’s approval rating dips below 42 percent in an unscientific survey, never ever support a broad based tax. That’s what everybody I talk to says it smells like.
to be deliberately unscientific, has a very Republican feel to it. If someone innocently and honestly had an interest in Vermonters pulse or effectively guaging opinions any issue, there are ways it could be somewhat scientific, or at least limit the fraud & abuse.
Instead it comes complete with a handy built in backdoor, an open invitation to stuff the box to manipulate the results, the most “ballots” win. Supporters & opposers of different issues are well able to cruise the survey locations.
A hidden camera would make things interesting.
Poll station workers could ask if voter or others would like the survey or a handout with the ballot making it clear it is anonymous & voluntary, if that is not legal it could be made highly visible & available by request, limiting one poll per person. Fewer qualified surveys present a more accurate picture of what Vermonters are thinking & feeling.
called attention to it about half a dozen people would have known about it since it’s on their blog and is behind a pay wall. Cris Erickson and five others.