New senate lines for Chittenden County help Republicans

(This is interesting. I haven’t checked the numbers, but they sound right. A reminder, though: none of these master plans for districts amount to squat, as the Legislature will be doing whatever it wants. Also – Dubie’s home town was Essex (which had to affect the returns), so the writer’s conclusions about the dynamics of that district are not necessarily accurate, but a worthy point of discussion regardless. – promoted by odum)

This is mainly just some observations I made on my DKOS elections account, but I thought I’d post here, where people might care a bit more:P

http://www.burlingtonfreepress…

To look at the numbers, I used the 2010 gubernatorial election numbers, as it shows what the state looks like under a close election.  I then used that data to compile the new districts, as described in the above article.  Note, I’m only going on the names and data provided by the article and some of the terms (islands, including arbough) aren’t very specific, so there might be some errors.

Looking at the numbers, republicans could win an extra 1-2 senate seats from the chittenden area under this map.  The current configuration is 5-1 in favor of the democrats.

Vermont gubernatorial election 2010 statewide

Shumlin 50%

Dubie: 48%

Chittenden County

Shumlin: 53%

Dubie: 46%

The two person Bolton, Richmond, Hinesburg, Huntington, Shelburne, Charlotte and South Burlington seat is

Shumlin 54%

Dubie 44.5%

the burlington two seat district is safe D.  

Shumlin: 67%

Dubie: 26%

For the Colchester, Winooski, Milton and the islands including Alburgh 2 person seat, as mentioned, i was unclear by what it meant by “the islands.”  to substitute, i included all of grand isle county, thus these numbers may not be exact if i made the wrong assumption about what “the islands” meant.

Dubie: 56%

Shumlin: 42%

For the 2 person Essex, Jericho, Underhill, Williston and St. George district it comes out to be an inverse of the heinsburg district.

Dubie:54%

Shumlin:44.5%

Depending on the candidates and the year, it seems possible, even probable that a republican will be elected to the colchester and essex seats.  Snelling could keep winning in the heinsburg S. Burl. seat.  this could also change depending on how many people run in each district and strategic voting.  

This means a grand total of 8 seats, with three districts where a republican can win at least one seat.  this would change a 5-1 democratic advantage into a 5-3 democratic advantage, resulting in a net loss of two democrats statewide.  of course this depends on campaigns and candidates, but at the moment this looks like a boon to republicans.  If anyone would like the spreadsheet I made of the data, I’ll try to figure out a way to post it.

3 thoughts on “New senate lines for Chittenden County help Republicans

  1. Here is one reason why the “legislature will do what the legislature will do” rather than do what the commission thinks it should do.

    The proposed Burlington district would create a Democratic ghetto meaning it would dilute the majority party vote in at least four and possibly more, smaller districts. Also, the proposed Burlington 2-person district would start by squeezing out one of three sitting Senators – Tim Ashe, Philip Baruth or Hinda Miller.  

    When politicians are in a “add seat” situation, as is the case here because of growing Northeast VT population patterns, sitting politicians in a majority party do not crowd out their own colleagues.

    Also, from a legal/logistical/political standpoint, there is no right or wrong reason for having a super sized 6-person Senate district. For partisan reasons, demographics always make one district configuration more beneficial for one party and less attractive to another. The Chittenden six seat mega-district helps Progressives and Democrats. It is impossible for a conservative Republican to be a serious contender in Chittenden Co. under the current system. In fact, Senator Snelling, the long Republican, is Republican in name only as she is far more liberal than Democrats in other parts of the state. I would certainly vote for her.

    The mega-district in Chittenden Co. is a political victory for Democrats and an opportunity for Progressives. Turning Burlington into a ghetto packed with liberal Democratic voters would dilute majority party electoral support by pulling that voting block out of districts that are responsible for sending at least four other Senators to Montpelier.

    Doug Tuttle’s numbers and research show us one reason why the plan will not be adopted – unless, of course, the Democratic majority in Montpelier wants to devise ways to put Democratic seats in jeopardy. It’s hard to see that incentive.  

  2. the map had 31 senators.  back to the drawing board I guess.  Fail on the board’s part, considering it was such a basic error.

    http://www.necn.com/06/24/11/V

    As for the home county/city advantage, I reran the numbers for the 2008 gubernatorial election.  Douglas won the essex district with 60% of the vote to Pollina’s 20% and Symington’s 19% (rounding)

                         Douglas      Pollina     Symington

    Essex-Chittenden 6-1   2883      782          689

    Essex-Chittenden 6-2   2998      977          889

    Essex-Chittenden 6-3   833       277          276

    Underhill              920       475          571

    St. George             203       73           72

    Williston              3155      986          980

    Jericho                1619      562          955

    Total                  12611     4132         4432

    Percentage             59%       19.5%        21%

    Statewide              53.4%       21.8%       21.7%

    Countywide            51.6%      23.2%         23.1%

                         Douglas   (SY+POL)  Winning margin

    statewide             53.4%      43.5%         9.9

    Countywide            51.6%      46.3%         5.3

    District              59%        40.5%         18.5

    PVI

                     Statewide winning %       PVI

    statewide             53.4%                 0

    Countywide            51.6%                 4.6D        

    District              59%                   8.6R        

    With these numbers, attained from the Vermont secretary of state’s homepage, division of election, we see that the essex district was solidly republican in 2008 as well.  even without Dubie’s influence as a gubernatorial candidate it split it’s vote 59 between Douglas and the two major candidates.  Douglas’ 18.5 point margin in the district is 13.2 points greater than his margin countywide and 8.2 points greater than his 10 point statewide margin.  

    In 2010 the district margin was 9.5 in favor of Dubie, which was 11.5 points greater than Dubie’s 2 statewide margin.  the 95 margin is 16.5 percentage points greater than the county wide margin of dubie’s 7 margin.

                       Shumlin     Dubie       Winning margin

    Statewide             50         48            2D

    Countywide            53%        46%           7D

    District              44.5       54            9.5R

                        Statewide winning %  PVI

    statewide             50%                 0

    Countywide            53%                 5D        

    District              44.5%               11.5R

    in 2010 the district was an 11.5R district, while in 2008 it was 8.6R.  while there are a myriad of variables, Pollina’s effect as a strong third party candidate, Dubie’s homefield advantage in essex, Douglas’ inevitability in 2008, the obama effect, etc. etc. etc.  the evidence suggests that this district would be a very republican one.

    Caoimhin Laochdha is likely right.  When the legislature looks at the map, they will not allow Burlington to exist on its own, as it dilutes democratic strength.  

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